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Mathematical Modelling and Simulation Strategies for Controlling Damage to Forest Resources Due to Illegal Logging Naben, Irene R; Bano, Elinora N; Blegur, Fried M. A.
Jurnal Varian Vol 8 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i1.3391

Forests are one of the natural resources that provide many benefits for the welfare of living things.The dense population causes people to depend more on forest resources. One of them is illegal logging.Various strategies to control forest damage due to illegal logging have been carried out, namely by directhandling to improve damaged conditions while preventing the recurrence of forest damage. The purposeof this research is to build a mathematical model of forest resource damage control strategies due toillegal logging, determine assumptions, formulate the model, and conduct analysis and problem solvingincluding: determining the equilibrium point, determining the stability analysis of the equilibrium point,and conducting numerical simulations of the equilibrium point. The last step is to interpret the results ofthe analysis obtained and make conclusions. Based on the research and simulation results of the model,it can be concluded that taking into account the variable of forest resource damage control strategydue to illegal logging, the result shows that if the density of forest resources has been affected by thedisturbance of population density around the forest, it is necessary to have a forest resource damagecontrol strategy in order to compensate for the people around the forest who do a lot of illegal logging.In order to maintain the forest so that the forest does not quickly become extinct and can overcomedrought, prevent flooding, maintain groundwater quality, protect animals, reduce air pollution, climatecontrol, reduce dust particles, prevent the greenhouse effect, supply natural fertilizers, prevent erosion,and maintain springs.

Analisis Struktur Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Berdasarkan Pendekatan Input - Output: Analysis of Economic Structure Based on the Input - Output Approach Klau, Anggelina Delviana; Taena, werenfridus; Kase, Marce Sherly; Blegur, Fried Markus Alung; Afoan, Felisisima
Ekopem: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Ekopem: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Timor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32938/jep.v7i1.9081

Pembangunan berbasis pengembangan wilayah memandang pentingnya keterpaduan sektoral, spasial serta keterpaduan antar pelaku-pelaku pembangunan pada suatu wilayah. Keterpaduan sektoral menuntut adanya keterkaitan fungsional dan sinergis antar sektor-sektor pembangunan, sehingga program-program pembangunan sektoral selalu dilaksanakan dalam kerangka pembangunan wilayah. Tujuan Penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis struktur ekonomi melalui permintaan antara dan permintaan akhir Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur menggunakan pendekatan Input Output. Hasil analisis menunjukan bahwa Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa struktur permintaan antara didominasi oleh sektor pertanian yang memberikan kontribusi sebesar 40%. Struktur konsumsi rumah tangga tertinggi berada pada sektor industri dan transportasi, serta jasa pendidikan dan pertanian

Leading sectors, multiplier effects, and economic spillovers among the islands of East Nusa Tenggara Province Taena, Werenfridus; Klau, Anggelina Delviana; Kase, Marce Sherly; Blegur, Fried Markus Alung; Afoan, Felisisima; Buan, Febrya Christin Putri Handayani
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 13 No. 4 (2025): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v13i4.41468

Regional economic disparities and fragmented inter-island linkages remain key challenges in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), one of Indonesia’s archipelagic provinces with diverse resource endowments. This study analyzes the structure and dynamics of NTT’s regional economy by identifying its leading sectors through intersectoral linkage analysis, estimating the magnitudes of multiplier effects, and examining spillover effects across the province’s major islands. The research utilizes the 2016 Input–Output Table of NTT Province and the accumulated Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) data of regencies and cities across the Timor, Flores, and Sumba islands for the 2016–2023 period. Analytical methods include linkage analysis, multiplier effect estimation, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, trade, and transportation constitute the leading sectors due to their strong forward and backward linkages. At the same time, agriculture and manufacturing also generate the largest multiplier effects. These sectors further create significant inter-island spillover effects, characterized by spread effects between Sumba–Timor, Sumba–Flores, and Timor–Sumba, and backwash effects between Timor–Flores and Flores–Sumba. The findings highlight that strengthening productive linkages in agriculture and manufacturing is vital for enhancing spatial equity and promoting inclusive regional growth. Conceptually, this study contributes to the literature by integrating intersectoral, multiplier, and spillover analyses to explain spatial economic interdependence in archipelagic regions and by offering practical policy implications for fostering sustainable inter-island integration in NTT Province.

Mathematical Modelling and Simulation Strategies for Controlling Damage to Forest Resources Due to Illegal Logging Naben, Irene R; Bano, Elinora N; Blegur, Fried M. A.
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i1.3391

Forests are one of the natural resources that provide many benefits for the welfare of living things.The dense population causes people to depend more on forest resources. One of them is illegal logging.Various strategies to control forest damage due to illegal logging have been carried out, namely by directhandling to improve damaged conditions while preventing the recurrence of forest damage. The purposeof this research is to build a mathematical model of forest resource damage control strategies due toillegal logging, determine assumptions, formulate the model, and conduct analysis and problem solvingincluding: determining the equilibrium point, determining the stability analysis of the equilibrium point,and conducting numerical simulations of the equilibrium point. The last step is to interpret the results ofthe analysis obtained and make conclusions. Based on the research and simulation results of the model,it can be concluded that taking into account the variable of forest resource damage control strategydue to illegal logging, the result shows that if the density of forest resources has been affected by thedisturbance of population density around the forest, it is necessary to have a forest resource damagecontrol strategy in order to compensate for the people around the forest who do a lot of illegal logging.In order to maintain the forest so that the forest does not quickly become extinct and can overcomedrought, prevent flooding, maintain groundwater quality, protect animals, reduce air pollution, climatecontrol, reduce dust particles, prevent the greenhouse effect, supply natural fertilizers, prevent erosion,and maintain springs.

Enhancing public service quality in border regions through fuzzy time series forecasting: A case study of the Timor Tengah Utara regional library Humoen, Oktovianus; Binsasi, Eva; Mada, Grandianus Seda; Blegur, Fried Markus Allung; Bano, Elinora Naikteas
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v8i3.202528958

Forecasting the demand for public services is often overlooked in border regions, where data-driven management remains limited. However, accurate forecasts are essential for improving service quality and optimizing the use of public facilities. This study aims to predict the number of university student visits to the Regional Library of Timor Tengah Utara (TTU) Regency, an Indonesian border area, using Chen’s fuzzy time series (FTS) model. The dataset consists of monthly records of university student visits from April 2022 to September 2025. The forecasting process involves fuzzification, the establishment of fuzzy logical relationships, and defuzzification to obtain predicted values. The results show that the number of student visits decreased from 240 in April 2022 to 213 in October 2025. The model achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 35.15%, indicating a fairly good forecasting accuracy. This study extends the application of Chen’s FTS model to library management forecasting in developing and border regions. In the long term, improved forecasting and service planning are expected to enhance library management efficiency and encourage greater student interest in visiting and reading at regional libraries.

ANALITICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS PENENTUAN KELAYAKAN PEMBERIAN PINJAMAN KREDIT USAHA RAKYAT BANK BRI MALAKA: ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS DETERMINING THE FEASIBILITY OF PROVIDING PEOPLE'S BUSINESS CREDIT LOANS BANK BRI MALAKA Densi Luruk; Fried Markus Allung Blegur; Nugraha Kristiano Floresda Dethan; Fitriani
Journal of Mathematics Theory and Applications Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Edisi Oktober 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Timor

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Kredit usaha rakyat (KUR) is a program launched by the government but the source of funds comes entirely from banks. Bank BRI Malaka is one of the banks trusted by the government to provide KUR facilities to the public.the increasing public interest in getting KUR, makes it difficult for banks to determine who is eligible to receive KUR or not. To overcome these problems, it is necessary to have a method that can provide recommendations for making the right decisions for prospective customers. This study aims to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in determining the priority order of selecting prospective customers by comparing one customer with another. The criteria to be considered are credit status, business conditions, income, guarantees and the number of customers involved in this study as many as 15 prospective customers. Data collection in this study was carried out by distributing questionnaires to 5 Mantri Bank BRI Malaka who were tasked with surveying the 15 prospective customers. Data is processed using the AHP method. AHP is used to produce a more consistent order of priority of each alternative. From the results of the analysis with AHP, 10 prospective customers were obtained in the highest order of priority who deserved to be given a KUR loan.

PENGOPTIMALAN JARINGAN AIR BERSIH DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA PRIM DI KECAMATAN MALAKA TIMUR KABUPATEN MALAKA Maksimus Asa Moruk; Faustianus - Luan; Fried Markus Allung Blegur
Journal of Mathematics Theory and Applications Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Edisi April 2026
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Timor

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A network is a group devides that have the same structure and act together to perform certain functions. In this research, researchers studied the microscope of clean water netwoks in East Malaka District, Malaka Regency using the Prim Algortm which aims to determinethe minimum distribution network for an interconnected weighted graph. Apart from that, researchers used volumetrics (measurement of air discharge using a stopwatch) and 5 liter containers/buckets and calculated Hazen Wiliams to calculate how much air discharge from the spring source to teh distination location, namely Felumasin village and Fatumatetek village The type of data used is quantitative data, namely data obtained from research results that are structure or patterned from one study so that it can be read more easily by researchers. The data source used is primary data, namely data obtained directly by researchers at the research location. Based on the results of this analysis, an air flowrate of 3,17 liters/second was obtanied from a spring with a pipe slope of 0,00348258706, a flow velocity of 403,454545 , and energy loss due to a height of 13.951.139,5 . Thus, the overall air discharge calculation results obtaniend from the springs to and using the general Hazen Williams formula are 0,00430088749 liter/second. This shows that the distribution of clean water networks carried out by researchers using the Prim Algorithm is optimal.

PENERAPAN PROGRAM DINAMIK PROBABILISTIK DALAM PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU UNTUK MEMINIMUMKAN BIAYA PRODUKSI DENGAN MEMPERTIMBANGKAN MASA KEDALUWARSA: bahasa indonesia Anjelina Tefi; Fried Allung Blegur; Leonardus Obe; Elinora Bano
Journal of Mathematics Theory and Applications Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Edisi Oktober 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Timor

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ABSTRAK Untuk menjaga proses produksi berjalan lancar diperlukan suatu perencanaan dan pengendalian persediaan bahan baku yang baik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penerapan program dinamik probabilistik dalam pengendalian persediaan bahan baku untuk meminimumkan biaya produksi dengan mempertimbangkan masa kedaluwarsa. Masalah produksi dan pengendalian persediaan dapat diselesaikan dengan menggunakan metode program dinamik. Proses perhitungan untuk mendapatkan total biaya produksi minimum yang dikeluarkan oleh pihak KCS Bakery tanpa menggunakan program dinamik adalah sebesar Rp 24.192.619,84 dengan keuntungan sebesar Rp. 84.497.380 biaya yang dikeluarkan berdasarkan jumlah produksi roti setiap periode Januari-Desember 2022. Setelah menggunakan program dinamik diperoleh biaya produksi minimum adalah Rp. 18.467.460 dengan keuntungan Rp. 92.129.040 dalam jangka waktu 1 tahun (12 bulan). Kata Kunci: produksi, program dinamik probabilistik

PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA DAN SIMULASI PENYEBARAN PERILAKU MEROKOK TERHADAP LAKI-LAKI DENGAN MEMPERHATIKAN FAKTOR LINGKUNGAN PERTEMANAN Maria Redegundis Lopena; Faustianus Luan; Leonardus Obe; Fried Allung Blegur
Journal of Mathematics Theory and Applications Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Edisi Oktober 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Timor

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Rokok adalah hasil olahan tembakau yang digulung/dilinting dengan kertas baik menggunakan tangan atau mesin. Perilaku merokok merupakan suatu aktivitas membakar tembakau, menghisap lalu menghembuskan asapnya. Merokok telah diketahui menjadi faktor resiko karena mengandung zat-zat kimia yang berdampak buruk bagi kesehatan. Matematika merupakan salah satu ilmu yang dapat menganalisa masalah yang terjadi dalam kehidupan dengan menggunakan pemodelan matematika. Salah satu masalah yang dapat dikaji dengan model matematika adalah penyebaran perilaku merokok. Penelitian ini mengkaji penyebaran perilaku merokok terhadap laki-laki dengan memperhatikan faktor lingkungan pertemanan. Model ini membagi menjadi empat subpopulasi yaitu: subpopulasi laki-laki yang berpotensi menjadi perokok , subpopulasi laki-laki yang hanya coba-coba merokok , subpopulasi laki-laki perokok aktif , subpopulasi laki-laki yang sembuh dari pengaruh rokok . Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh dua titik ekuilibrium yaitu titik ekuilibrium bebas merokok dan titik ekuilibrium endemik . Hasil simulasi titik ekuilibrium bebas merokok menunjukan bahwa nilai , maka perilaku merokok berkurang dan akan hilang seiring berjalannya waktu. Hasil simulasi titik ekuilibrium endemik menunjukan bahwa nilai , maka perilaku merokok akan meningkat dan setiap perokok dapat menularkan perilaku merokoknya kepada lebih dari satu perokok baru sehingga perilaku merokok semakin meluas.

OPTIMALISASI PRODUKSI AYAM BROILER DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN GOAL PROGRAMMING (Studi Kasus : Peternakan Mitra Sinar Jaya (MSJ) di Umalelu, Desa Aebubu Kecamatan Paga, Kabupaten Sikka) Lindrawati Alberta Nanci; Faustianus Luan; Oktovianus Sikas; Fried Allung Blegur
Journal of Mathematics Theory and Applications Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Edisi Oktober 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Timor

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Mitra Sinar Jaya's Broiler Chicken Farm in Umalelu, Aebubu Village, Paga District, Sikka Regency, is an example of a livestock business that seeks to increase production and profits. Owners face difficulties to optimize various production components, including DOC, feed, medicines, husks, labor, cage capacity, and electricity use. The purpose of this study is to optimize the use of production factors to achieve maximum production and maximize profits. To optimize production factors and maximize profits, a method is used, namely Goal Programming assisted by lingo software. Based on the results of this study, it shows that cage 1 is more efficient in achieving the production target than cage 2, so that resource allocation is more directed to cage 1. The needs of Broiler Chicken production factors are DOC input of 5154 heads, feed use of 7731 Kg, use of 52 sacks of husks, use of electricity 2072 KwH, use of medicines 5051 grams, labor force of 2 people, cage capacity of 5154 heads. With a profit reaching Rp98,584,400.00 per harvest cycle.

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