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Analysis Of Mutual Fund Performance In Indonesia Using Robust Regression Doloksaribu, Arsella F; br Tarigan, Ernita Dewi; Syahmarani, Aghni; Darnius, Open; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi
MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol 10, No 1 (2024): Edisi Oktober (Progress)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/mes.v10i1.9595

The Least Squares Method (MKT) is the best linear regression estimator if the classical assumption tests are met. However, if there are outliers in the data, this approach can provide inaccurate prediction results. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to overcome the inappropriate model due to outliers in variables that affect mutual fund performance in Indonesia. The variables in this study are risk level, inflation, fund size, turnover ratio, and cash flow. Robust regression is an approach designed to provide more accurate estimates without discarding observational data that indicates outliers. One of the estimation approaches is Least Trimmed Squares (LTS). This estimation minimizes the sum of squared residuals from h observations that are not considered outliers. The results showed that there were 10 outliers in the data, and the risk level variable had no effect on mutual fund performance, while the inflation, fund size, turnover ratio, and cash flow variables had a significant effect. So by comparing the value and residual standard error of the two methods, it is found that the value in the LTS method is greater than the MKT method, namely 0.589 0.273, and the residual standard error in the LTS method is smaller than the MKT method, namely 9.73 48.59. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Least Trimmed Squares method provides better estimation results and is more effective for handling outliers than the MKT method.

Analysis of the Effect of District / City Minimum Wage and Labor Force Participation Rate on the Open Unemployment Rate of North Sumatra Province in 2021-2022 Erwin; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Marpaung, Rony Genevent; Marpaung, J.L.
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v2i2.13590

Open unemployment is still a major economic problem in North Sumatra Province. This study aims to analyze the effect of Regency / City Minimum Wage, Labor Force Participation Rate, and Gross Regional Domestic Product on the Open Unemployment Rate in North Sumatra Province in 2021-2022. The type of data used is secondary data obtained from the North Sumatra Province Statistics Agency. The results showed that there was a simultaneous significant influence between the three independent variables, namely district / city minimum wage, labor force participation rate, and gross regional domestic product on the dependent variable, namely the open unemployment rate ???? = 0.164????1 − 0.694????2 − 0.032???? + 0.424. The simultaneous effect is 57.6% and the remaining 42.4% is explained by other variables not included in the study.

Analysis Of Mutual Fund Performance In Indonesia Using Robust Regression Doloksaribu, Arsella F; br Tarigan, Enita Dewi; Syahmarani, Aghni; Darnius, Open; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi
MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol 10, No 1 (2024): Edisi Oktober
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/mes.v10i1.9595

The Least Squares Method (MKT) is the best linear regression estimator if the classical assumption tests are met. However, if there are outliers in the data, this approach can provide inaccurate prediction results. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to overcome the inappropriate model due to outliers in variables that affect mutual fund performance in Indonesia. The variables in this study are risk level, inflation, fund size, turnover ratio, and cash flow. Robust regression is an approach designed to provide more accurate estimates without discarding observational data that indicates outliers. One of the estimation approaches is Least Trimmed Squares (LTS). This estimation minimizes the sum of squared residuals from h observations that are not considered outliers. The results showed that there were 10 outliers in the data, and the risk level variable had no effect on mutual fund performance, while the inflation, fund size, turnover ratio, and cash flow variables had a significant effect. So by comparing the value and residual standard error of the two methods, it is found that the value in the LTS method is greater than the MKT method, namely 0.589 0.273, and the residual standard error in the LTS method is smaller than the MKT method, namely 9.73 48.59. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Least Trimmed Squares method provides better estimation results and is more effective for handling outliers than the MKT method.

INVESTMENT GOLD DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WITH LINEAR REGRESSION, NONLINEAR REGRESSION AND ARIMA Tarigan, Enita Dewi; Yanti, Maulida; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Siringoringo, Yan Batara Putra; Erwin, Erwin
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.6832

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many individuals have turned to low-risk investment options. Common choices include gold, stocks, deposits, and foreign currencies, with gold emerging as a particularly popular investment. This study aims to forecast gold prices using linear regression, nonlinear regression, and ARIMA models, with the most accurate model determined by the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Gold price data was sourced from www.kitco.com. The MAPE for the Linear Regression model was 4.362, the Nonlinear Regression model 3.3428, and the Time Series (ARIMA) model 2.727. Consequently, the ARIMA model demonstrated superior accuracy in forecasting gold prices compared to the Linear and Nonlinear Regression models.

Factors Affecting The Increase In Crime Index In West Sumatra With Path Analysis Method Tarigan, Enita Dewi; Thoriq , Ahmad; Siringoringo, Yan Batara Putra; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi
Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology Vol. 4 No. 2 (2022): Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology (JoRMTT)
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/jormtt.v4i2.16071

Crime or criminality in Indonesia is rampant in both print and television media. We can see news about crime almost every day. Basically, every individual will be influenced by several factors, both internal and internal, external causes of a person committing a crime, including population, education, morality, poverty and unemployment. In this case, a statistical analysis will be studied that can detect the magnitude of these factors, both directly and indirectly, on the crime rate. One of the statistical analyzes that can be used to analyze causal relationships between variables is path analysis, which is a direct development of the multiple regression form with the aim of providing estimates of the level of importance (magnitude) and significance (significance) in a variable set of causal relationships. hypothetical consequences. From the research results for West Sumatra Province, it was concluded that there was no large influence of variable X on Y

Optimizing Junior Fried Chicken Business Production Profits Using the Fuzzy Linear Programming Method Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Rahmah, Mudia
Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology Vol. 5 No. 1 (2023): Journal of Research in Mathematics Trends and Technology (JoRMTT)
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/jormtt.v5i1.16676

This research aims to optimize production and profits in the Junior Fried Chicken business using the Fuzzy Linear Programming (FLP) method. The data collected includes product data, raw materials, production costs, and sales profits. The author constructs a mathematical model that includes objective functions and constraints based on the data obtained. Next, the Fuzzy Linear Programming (FLP) method is used to make optimal decisions about the amount of production for each menu. It is hoped that the results of this research can help business owners optimize their production and profits.

Active Role of the Community in Increasing Sustainable Tourism in Sibolangit Village Siringoringo, Yan Batara Putra; Nababan, Esther Sorta Mauli; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Sitepu, Suryati; Sujatmoko, Koko
Jurnal Mitra Prima Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL MITRA PRIMA
Publisher : Mitra prima

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Sibolangit Village is known as a tourist village because it has a lot of natural potential that can be developed into a tourist destination in Deli Serdang Regency. Some of the tourism potential in Sibolangit Village includes the Taman Wisata Alam Sibolangit, Tangga Seribu, Uruk Sikuda-kuda, Taman Pekabar Injil Pertama GBKP, Goa Sejarah, Pemandian Alam Sibolangit. However, the management of tourist attractions in Sibolangit Village is not yet optimal because human resources in terms of expertise and skills in the field of tourism are still minimal, causing the tourist attraction to be unattractive and ultimately the number of visitors does not experience a significant increase. Carry out community service activities by holding training to improve skills in managing tourism businesses, marketing and customer service in Sibolangit Village. This training also covers aspects of sustainability, making the community the guardian and custodian of local heritage. Apart from that, a Tourism Awareness Group (Pokdarwis) will be formed as a representative of the Sibolangit Village community in developing tourism.

Optimization of Literacy Development for Children in Tanjung Kasau Plantation Village Siringoringo, Yan Batara; Marpaung, TJ; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Tarigan, E.D.; Balqis, Muthia Ferliani; Sari, Aminah; Hasibuan, Mhd. Nasir; Siregar, Rosman
ABDIMAS TALENTA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023): ABDIMAS TALENTA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32734/abdimastalenta.v8i1.11304

Reading is the most basic ability as a provision to learn everything. In literacy, reading is a very interesting and important form of learning for teachers and students so that learning is easy to understand or understand when doing reading activities. Literacy is a person's ability to process and understand information when carrying out the process of reading and writing. School is an institution that is responsible for creating a reading culture which is an important part of learning activities. Schools must be able to facilitate various means that can increase students' interest in reading, namely by utilizing the school library. Through reading students can broaden horizons, sharpen ideas, and increase knowledge. The method used in this activity is to teach students to read in groups by utilizing the books in the library of SDN 10 Tanjung Kasau plantation village. The results obtained from this program are being able to develop children's interest in reading and elementary school children's knowledge in reading, especially grades 1-4 who cannot read, so that the purpose of holding this interest in reading (literacy) program can be implemented.

Active Role of the Community in Increasing Sustainable Tourism in Sibolangit Village Siringoringo, Yan Batara Putra; Nababan, Esther Sorta Mauli; Hasibuan, Citra Dewi; Sitepu, Suryati; Sujatmoko, Koko
Jurnal Mitra Prima Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL MITRA PRIMA
Publisher : Mitra prima

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Sibolangit Village is known as a tourist village because it has a lot of natural potential that can be developed into a tourist destination in Deli Serdang Regency. Some of the tourism potential in Sibolangit Village includes the Taman Wisata Alam Sibolangit, Tangga Seribu, Uruk Sikuda-kuda, Taman Pekabar Injil Pertama GBKP, Goa Sejarah, Pemandian Alam Sibolangit. However, the management of tourist attractions in Sibolangit Village is not yet optimal because human resources in terms of expertise and skills in the field of tourism are still minimal, causing the tourist attraction to be unattractive and ultimately the number of visitors does not experience a significant increase. Carry out community service activities by holding training to improve skills in managing tourism businesses, marketing and customer service in Sibolangit Village. This training also covers aspects of sustainability, making the community the guardian and custodian of local heritage. Apart from that, a Tourism Awareness Group (Pokdarwis) will be formed as a representative of the Sibolangit Village community in developing tourism.

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