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All Journal Aptisi Transactions on Technopreneurship (ATT) Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education
Mamadiyarov, Zokir
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Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences Other

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A Decision-Centric Approach to Risk Management in Aviation Stock Investments Using Value at Risk and Portfolio Optimization Singagerda, Faurani Santi; Pratama, Muh. Riyaldi; Alfairus, M. Qodri; Iskandar, Akbar; Mamadiyarov, Zokir
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci3870

Abstract

This study applies Monte Carlo simulation to analyze and compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of two Indonesian airline stocks—PT Garuda Indonesia (full-service carrier) and PT AirAsia Indonesia (low-cost carrier)—using daily return data from January to December 2023. The research examines risk-return characteristics at individual stock and portfolio levels across different confidence intervals (99%, 95%, and 90%). Results reveal that PT Garuda Indonesia exhibits higher expected returns (0.5168%) but also higher volatility (3.5980%) compared to PT AirAsia Indonesia (0.2412% return, 2.4868% volatility), reflecting their different business models. Remarkably, an equal-weight portfolio demonstrates extraordinary diversification benefits, with positive VaR values across all confidence levels, indicating robust downside protection even in adverse market conditions. At 99% confidence, the monetary VaR for a Rp100,000,000 investment shows potential maximum losses of Rp7,984,331 for Garuda and Rp5,460,951 for AirAsia, while the portfolio generates a minimum gain of Rp1,886,373. This study highlights the effectiveness of Monte Carlo VaR in capturing complex risk dynamics, demonstrates significant intra-sector diversification benefits challenging conventional diversification wisdom, and provides insights into how different airline business models translate into distinctive risk-return profiles. These findings have important implications for investment decision-making and risk management in specialized industry contexts, particularly in emerging markets.
Cryptocurrency Risk Management through Decision Engineering: Evaluating XRPUSD and ADAUSD Portfolio Performance Litamahuputty, Jacomina Vonny; Amiruddin, Erwin Gatot; Rahim, Robbi; Rahman, Abdul; Mamadiyarov, Zokir
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci3871

Abstract

This research examines the risk profiles of XRPUSD and ADAUSD cryptocurrencies through Value at Risk (VaR) analysis with Monte Carlo simulation, providing quantitative risk assessments for both individual assets and a diversified portfolio. Analyzing historical price data from January 2016 to November 2024, the study identifies distinctive risk characteristics between these cryptocurrencies: ADAUSD exhibited marginally higher historical returns (1.44% monthly) compared to XRPUSD (1.42%), but with notably higher volatility (standard deviation of 5.41% versus 4.65%). The Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations generated VaR estimates at multiple confidence levels, revealing that XRPUSD consistently demonstrated lower downside risk than ADAUSD across all confidence thresholds. At the 99% confidence level, ADAUSD showed a Mean VaR of -10.97%, indicating potential monthly losses exceeding $10.97 million on a hypothetical $100 million investment, while XRPUSD's lower Mean VaR of -9.52% translated to potential losses of approximately $9.52 million. The most striking finding emerged from the portfolio analysis, which revealed dramatic risk reduction through diversification—the equally-weighted portfolio achieved a Mean VaR of merely -2.22% at the 99% confidence level, representing an approximately 80% reduction in potential losses compared to ADAUSD alone. These results demonstrate that cryptocurrency diversification can substantially mitigate extreme downside risk while maintaining exposure to the digital asset class. The significant risk reduction achieved through a simple two-asset allocation validates the application of modern portfolio theory principles to cryptocurrency investments despite their unique characteristics and underscores the critical importance of diversified approaches rather than concentrated positions for risk-conscious cryptocurrency investors. This research contributes to both theoretical understanding of cryptocurrency risk dynamics and practical portfolio construction approaches, providing quantitative evidence for the value of diversification strategies in navigating the substantial volatility inherent in digital asset markets.
Strategic Decision Analysis for Investment Portfolios: Computational Risk Assessment in Transportation Asset Management Sofyanty, Devy; Romadhoni, Romadhoni; Handriadi, Handriadi; Makhsudovna, Istamova Shokhida; Anwar, Zakiyah; Mamadiyarov, Zokir
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci3897

Abstract

This study presents a strategic decision-making framework for portfolio investment by applying computational risk assessment methods to the transportation sector in Indonesia. Focusing on two key players—PT. Adi Sarana Tbk (ASSA) and PT. Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD)—the research evaluates their individual and combined risk-return profiles using daily stock return data from December 2023 to November 2024. A hybrid analytical approach is employed, integrating traditional financial metrics with advanced computational techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation and Value at Risk (VaR) modeling to support managerial decision-making. The analysis reveals contrasting performance patterns: BIRD exhibits marginally positive expected returns (0.04%) but higher downside risk exposure, whereas ASSA shows negative average returns (-0.06%) yet demonstrates lower volatility and reduced extreme loss potential. Portfolio optimization results demonstrate that a diversified allocation of 60% ASSA and 40% BIRD generates improved risk-adjusted returns, achieving a positive expected return while maintaining lower overall risk compared to the individual assets. By incorporating monetary VaR estimates, this study enhances the practical relevance of risk analytics for portfolio managers, particularly in navigating volatile emerging markets. The findings underscore the importance of strategic asset allocation, business model differentiation, and quantitative risk modeling in constructing resilient investment portfolios. This research contributes both methodologically and managerially by offering a robust, replicable framework for strategic decision analysis in transportation asset management and beyond.
Downside Risk Measurement of Indonesian Financial and Energy Securities: A Value at Risk Perspective Rony, Zahara Tussoleha; Jefri, Riny; Rusmardiana, Ana; Pramono, Susatyo Adhi; Mamadiyarov, Zokir
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci3898

Abstract

This study explores the measurement of downside risk in the Indonesian capital market by applying Value at Risk (VaR) analysis to two representative companies from different economic sectors: PT Asuransi Bina Dana Arta Tbk (ABDA), an insurance firm, and PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMI), an energy and mining company. Utilizing daily return data from December 2023 to November 2024, we assess both individual and portfolio-level risk profiles through a quantitative framework based on Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings reveal distinct risk-return characteristics between the two stocks. ABDA exhibits a negative average daily return (-0.15%) with relatively low volatility (standard deviation of 1.12%), whereas ABMI shows a positive expected return (0.07%) but higher variability (standard deviation of 2.06%). Interestingly, despite its lower volatility, ABDA records higher VaR values across all confidence levels, indicating greater downside exposure—particularly evident at the 95% confidence level where ABDA's one-day VaR is -2.04%, compared to ABMI’s -1.77%. A cross-sector portfolio consisting of 40% ABDA and 60% ABMI demonstrates meaningful diversification benefits, reducing the standard deviation to 1.02% and improving the VaR to -1.54%. This represents a risk reduction of 24.5% compared to ABDA alone and 13% relative to ABMI alone. For a hypothetical investment of IDR 100 million, these improvements equate to reduced potential daily losses of IDR 508,258 and IDR 233,504 respectively. The results emphasize that strategic cross-sector allocation—even within a simple two-asset portfolio—can significantly enhance risk-adjusted performance in emerging markets like Indonesia. By combining financial and energy assets with differing sensitivities to macroeconomic conditions, investors can better manage downside risk while maintaining exposure to diverse economic drivers. This research provides a practical methodology for risk assessment and portfolio construction, offering valuable insights for asset managers and decision-makers operating in volatile and multi-sector investment environments.
Impact of Shopee Promotions on Spontaneous Buying in Pematangsiantar Julyanthry, Julyanthry; Suryati, Lili; Mamadiyarov, Zokir; Silalahi, Marto; Judijanto, Loso; Simanjuntak, Markus Doddy; Baxtishodovich, Sobirov Bobur
Aptisi Transactions On Technopreneurship (ATT) Vol 7 No 3 (2025): November
Publisher : Pandawan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34306/att.v7i3.619

Abstract

This study aims to determine the impulse buying behavior influenced by the Shopee marketplace sales promotion in the Sibatu-batu Block 9 community, Sitalasari, Pematangsiantar city. This study uses a library research design and field research. The sample of this study was 38 people. The types of data used in this study are qualitative and quantitative data, while the data sources consist of primary data and secondary data. Data collection was carried out through interviews, questionnaires, and documentation. The analysis techniques used include normality tests, qualitative descriptive analysis, and quantitative descriptive analysis. The results of this study show that sales promotion is good and impulse buying is high, and there is a strong and positive relationship between the two variables. The findings also indicate that variations in impulse buying can be explained by sales promotion, and the hypothesis test confirms that H0 is rejected, meaning that sales promotion significantly affects impulse buying on the Shopee marketplace. Based on these findings, the study suggests that Shopee should consider re-adjusting the minimum purchase requirements to obtain shipping discounts, especially for areas outside Sumatra, in order to improve the effectiveness of sales promotion. Furthermore, to increase impulse buying, Shopee is advised to add time and quantity limits combined with tiered discounts.
Comparison of Students Science Literacy Abilities Using Inquiry and Cooperative Learning Models Panjaitan, Muktar Bahruddin; Siagian, Asister Fernando; Judijanto, Loso; Mufarizuddin, Mufarizuddin; Herman, Herman; Saputra, Nanda; Mamadiyarov, Zokir
Aptisi Transactions On Technopreneurship (ATT) Vol 8 No 1 (2026): March
Publisher : Pandawan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34306/att.v8i1.640

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is a difference in scientific literacy between students who follow the inquiry learning model and students who follow the STAD cooperative learning model to determine the difference between scientific literacy due to students' achievement motivation to describe the interaction between the learning model and achievement motivation on students' scientific literacy. This study used a Posttest-Only Control Group Design with a two-factor analysis. The population in this study were fifth-semester PGSD students at HKBP Nommensen University of Pematangsiantar, in 2024/2025 Academic Year, with totaling 186 students, which sample of 124 students determined by using Simple Random Sampling technique for the class. Data were obtained using the achievement motivation instrument and the science literacy test. Data analysis was carried out using two-way analysis of variance. The study found a significant difference in scientific literacy between students who followed the Inquiry Learning Model and those who followed the STAD Cooperative Learning Model, with a p-value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05. There is a difference in student science literacy based on achievement motivation with a value of Sig. 0.000 < 0.05 and there is no interaction between the learning model and achievement motivation on student science literacy, with a value of Sig. 0.230 > 0.05.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahman Akbar Iskandar Alfairus, Muh. Qodri Amiruddin, Erwin Gatot Anwar, Zakiyah Asister Fernando Siagian Askarov, Sarvar Baxtishodovich, Sobirov Bobur Devy Sofyanty Handriadi, Handriadi Jacomina Vonny Litamahuputty Judijanto, Loso Julyanthry, Julyanthry Lili Suryati M. Yogi Riyantama Isjoni Makhsudovna, Istamova Shokhida Marto Silalahi Mufarizuddin PANJAITAN, MUKTAR B Pratama, Muh. Riyaldi Riny Jefri, Riny Robbi Rahim Romadhoni Romadhoni, Romadhoni Rony, Zahara Tussoleha Rusmardiana, Ana Saputra, Nanda SIMANJUNTAK, MARKUS DODDY Singagerda, Faurani Santi Susatyo Adhi Pramono, Susatyo Adhi Tajimatov, O‘tkirjon