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All Journal BIMASTER Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Jurnal SOLMA BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jurnal Matematika UNAND Jurnal Sintak STATISTIKA Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Nahrul Hayati
Batam Institute Of Technology
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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A Daily Transition Analysis of Disaster Events in Riau Islands using Markov Chains: Dominant Disaster Identification and Risk Assessment Nahrul Hayati; Andini Setyo Anggraeni; Eko Sulistyono
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i1.34024

Abstract

Objectives: This study employs a Markov Chain approach to analyze daily disaster transition patterns in the Riau Islands, with the primary objectives of identifying dominant hazards, quantifying long-term disaster risks, and providing evidence-based recommendations for disaster management. Methods: The research utilized daily disaster records from Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) for 2024. A dominant state classification approach was applied to handle days with multiple disaster occurrences, followed by the construction of a transition probability matrix and steady-state analysis to determine long-term disaster distribution. Results: The analysis reveals that no disaster conditions represent the most prevalent state in the region. Among actual disasters, wildfires demonstrate the highest persistence, followed by extreme weather events, floods, and landslides. The transition patterns indicate that most disasters occur as isolated events rather than consecutive sequences, though wildfires show a tendency for temporal clustering. Conclusion: The study provides two key contributions. Methodologically, it demonstrates an effective approach for simplifying complex multi disaster daily data. Practically, it offers scientific evidence for prioritizing wildfire management in the Riau Islands while maintaining preparedness for other episodic disasters. These findings support the development of targeted early warning systems and resource allocation strategies for local disaster management agencies.
Co-Authors Ahmad Andrevi Alrasyidin Ananda, Serly Tri Andini Setyo Anggraeni Andini Setyo Anggraeni Andini Setyo Anggraeni Anggraeni, Andini Setyo Arrafi, Adamsyam Auwalia, Farda Bahri, Salsabila Berlian Setiawaty Bulan Purnama Utami Devikaduri, Laras Dia Cahya Wati Eko Sulistyono Eko Sulistyono Eko Sulistyono Eko Sulistyono Sulistyono Gusrita, Rani Handayani, Vitri Aprilla I Gusti Putu Purnaba Laras Devikaduri Lilies Handayani Lunardi, Louis Nur Asikin Oktavia, Rantini Dwi Palevi, Muhammad Reza Rafella Putri, Tia Aura Rani Gusrita Sabarinsyah Sabarinsyah, Sabarinsyah Sadiq Ardo Wibowo, Sadiq Ardo Sembiring, Rinawati Taufiq Rahman Utami, Arli Magfirah Vitri Aprilla Handayani