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All Journal JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jurnal EBONI
Aristyarini, Rizki
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Environmental Science Mathematics

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PENGGUNAAN SWAT DALAM PREDIKSI KETERSEDIAAN AIR UNTUK PENINGKATAN PRODUKTIVITAS PANGAN DI WILAYAH DAS WARSANSOM PAPUA BARAT surahman, suryansyah; Sukri, Hadija; Setiawan, Eka Setiawan; Irwan, Irwan; Evar, Fitrawaty Orista; Hatimah, Husnul Hatimah; Prihatin, Prihatin; Putra, Ardi Manggala; Gustam, Andriyana; Aristyarini, Rizki; Hardina, Nur; Priyadi, Priyadi
Jurnal Eboni Vol 6 No 2 (2024): November
Publisher : Program Studi Kehutanan Universitas Muslim Maros

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46918/eboni.v6i2.2567

Abstract

The availability of adequate water is one of the key factors in supporting increased food productivity, especially in areas that have large agricultural potential such as the Warsansom Watershed (DAS), West Papua. This research aims to predict water availability in the Warsansom watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT model was chosen because of its ability to simulate hydrological processes, erosion and land use dynamics in a spatial-temporal manner. The data used includes rainfall, temperature, topography, soil type and land use patterns. The analysis results show that the average annual rainfall is 322 mm/year, with an annual average temperature of 26.49°C. The Warsansom watershed area is dominated by secondary dryland forest (78.69%) which contributes significantly to groundwater infiltration and recharge. Regional delineation resulted in 33 sub-watersheds with a total area of ​​144,280 ha, as well as 273 hydrological response units (HRU) which became the basis for identifying critical areas in water management. SWAT simulations reveal potential risks of surface runoff in areas with steep slopes (36.53%) that require conservation interventions to reduce erosion and sedimentation. This research recommends data-based strategies for optimizing water resource management, including improving irrigation infrastructure, developing cropping patterns that are adaptive to water availability, and mitigating the impacts of climate change. By utilizing SWAT simulations, it is hoped that food productivity in the Warsansom watershed can increase sustainably, supporting food security in the West Papua region
PENGGUNAAN SWAT DALAM PREDIKSI KETERSEDIAAN AIR UNTUK PENINGKATAN PRODUKTIVITAS PANGAN DI WILAYAH DAS WARSANSOM PAPUA BARAT surahman, suryansyah; Sukri, Hadija; Setiawan, Eka Setiawan; Irwan, Irwan; Evar, Fitrawaty Orista; Hatimah, Husnul Hatimah; Prihatin, Prihatin; Putra, Ardi Manggala; Gustam, Andriyana; Aristyarini, Rizki; Hardina, Nur; Priyadi, Priyadi
Jurnal Eboni Vol. 6 No. 2 (2024): November
Publisher : Program Studi Kehutanan Universitas Muslim Maros

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46918/eboni.v6i2.2567

Abstract

The availability of adequate water is one of the key factors in supporting increased food productivity, especially in areas that have large agricultural potential such as the Warsansom Watershed (DAS), West Papua. This research aims to predict water availability in the Warsansom watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT model was chosen because of its ability to simulate hydrological processes, erosion and land use dynamics in a spatial-temporal manner. The data used includes rainfall, temperature, topography, soil type and land use patterns. The analysis results show that the average annual rainfall is 322 mm/year, with an annual average temperature of 26.49°C. The Warsansom watershed area is dominated by secondary dryland forest (78.69%) which contributes significantly to groundwater infiltration and recharge. Regional delineation resulted in 33 sub-watersheds with a total area of ??144,280 ha, as well as 273 hydrological response units (HRU) which became the basis for identifying critical areas in water management. SWAT simulations reveal potential risks of surface runoff in areas with steep slopes (36.53%) that require conservation interventions to reduce erosion and sedimentation. This research recommends data-based strategies for optimizing water resource management, including improving irrigation infrastructure, developing cropping patterns that are adaptive to water availability, and mitigating the impacts of climate change. By utilizing SWAT simulations, it is hoped that food productivity in the Warsansom watershed can increase sustainably, supporting food security in the West Papua region
Combined Truncated Spline and Fourier series in Nonparametric Biresponse Regression: A Case of Agricultural Productivity Husain, Hartina; Aristyarini, Rizki; Rahman, Andi Oxy Raihan Machikami; Rahmi, Nur; Nisardi, Muhammad Rifki
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 2 (2026): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i2.35319

Abstract

Agriculture plays a strategic role in supporting economic development and food security in Indonesia, particularly in South Sulawesi, one of the country’s primary rice-producing regions. Existing studies on agricultural productivity commonly rely on parametric or single-response models, which are less effective in capturing the nonlinear, locally varying, and interrelated characteristics of agricultural indicators. Addressing this research gap, the present study applies a biresponse nonparametric regression approach that integrates truncated splines and Fourier series to simultaneously model rice productivity and the food security index. This quantitative observational research uses secondary regional agricultural statistics, and the analytical procedure includes formulating the biresponse model, conducting diagnostic checks of key nonparametric assumptions, and estimating parameters using the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method. Model selection was conducted using the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) criterion, which indicated that rainfall was better approximated with truncated splines and extension workers with Fourier series. The optimal knot points were obtained at 1207.096 for rice productivity variable and 1207.556 for food security index variable, with one oscillation applied in the Fourier series and one knot for the truncated spline. The results show that the best model was obtained with the smallest Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value of 21.38, a coefficient of determination of 94.85%, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 9.68%. These results demonstrate the methodological advantage of the combined biresponse nonparametric model in accommodating complex data structures and provide actionable insights for policymakers in optimizing resource allocation, strengthening extension services, and enhancing food security strategies in South Sulawesi.
Co-Authors Evar, Fitrawaty Orista Gustam, Andriyana Hatimah, Husnul Hatimah Husain, Hartina Irwan Irwan Muhammad Rifki Nisardi Nur Hardina Nur Rahmi Prihatin Prihatin, Prihatin Priyadi Priyadi Putra, Ardi Manggala Rahman, Andi Oxy Raihan Machikami Setiawan, Eka Setiawan Sukri, Hadija Surahman, Suryansyah