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All Journal ELP (Journal of English Language Pedagogy) UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Fenni Kurnia Mutiya
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Social Sciences

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STUDENTS’ LISTENING COMPREHENSION IN TOEFL: A STUDY ON STUDENTS’ PERFORMANCE ACROSS THE SECTIONS Sepyanda, Marsika; Fenni Kurnia Mutiya; Chairina Wirdiastuti; Titiek Fujita Yusandra; Lucy Oktavani; Yummi Meirafoni
ELP (Journal of English Language Pedagogy) Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): ELP (Journal of English Language Pedagogy)
Publisher : Universitas Mahaputra Muhammad Yamin

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36665/elp.v10i1.994

Abstract

      This study examines students’ performance in the TOEFL listening comprehension test, focusing on their strengths and weaknesses across three sections: short conversations (Part A), long conversations (Part B), and short talks (Part C). There are 45 students registered in the course “Aplikasi Pendidikan Bahasa dalam Pembelajaran PJOK” on the odd semester in the 2024/2025 academic year participated in this study. The participants are chosen because the course integrates TOEFL-based language instruction, as outlined in the semester learning plan (RPS), where one of the students’ difficulties is listening skills. A descriptive quantitative research design was conducted over a three-week study period, with listening tests administered weekly during three class meetings. The tests used questions adopted from standardized TOEFL practice materials, which were selected based on their alignment with the test's objectives and validated by experienced English instructors for relevance and difficulty. Data analysis discovered that students consistently performed best in Part C, with average scores increasing from 53% to 65% across three tests, while Part B presented the most significant challenges, with scores improving from 43% to 54%. Part A showed moderate performance, with scores rising from 49% to 60%. These results show that there is also an improvement on each part of the test, attributed to repeated exposure to the test format and the development of listening strategies. However, the persistent difficulty in Part B suggests the need for targeted instructional interventions to address challenges in extended dialogues. It can be concluded that the students demonstrated general improvement in TOEFL listening comprehension across all sections. The repeated exposure can be an effective strategy performance in TOEFL listening comprehension.  
EFFORT MATTERS: EXPLORING INDONESIAN UNIVERSITY STUDENTS’ SELF-EFFICACY IN ENGLISH LEARNING Sepyanda, Marsika; Fenni Kurnia Mutiya; Elviza Yeni Putri; Lucy Oktavani
ELP (Journal of English Language Pedagogy) Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): ELP (Journal of English Language Pedagogy)
Publisher : Universitas Mahaputra Muhammad Yamin

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36665/elp.v10i2.1077

Abstract

       Self-efficacy plays a crucial role in shaping students' motivation and performance, particularly in the context of learning a foreign language such as English. Guided by Bandura’s (1997) social cognitive theory, this study explores Indonesian university students’ self-efficacy beliefs in English learning, with a specific focus on the role of effort-related beliefs. This study aims to explore university students' self-efficacy in English learning by analyzing their beliefs and confidence levels toward their language learning abilities. The respondents consisted of 129 students enrolled in a compulsory General English course in Universitas Negeri Padang, selected from a population of 308 students using a simple random sampling technique. A questionnaire comprising 25 items based on a Likert scale was administered to measure students’ self-efficacy. The validity and reliability of the instrument were confirmed through Pearson Product-Moment correlation and Cronbach’s Alpha (? = 0.7926), indicating strong internal consistency. Data analysis revealed that the average self-efficacy score was 3.29, which falls into the moderate category. The highest-rated statement indicated students' belief that effort leads to improvement, while the lowest-rated item reflected a sense of helplessness regardless of effort. These results suggest that while students believe in their potential to succeed in English learning through hard work, some still struggle with negative self-perceptions. The findings emphasize the importance of addressing students' self-efficacy beliefs to enhance their learning outcomes. Educational interventions that foster self-awareness, goal-setting, and motivational strategies may contribute positively to increasing self-efficacy in language learning. This study contributes to the growth of the literature on EFL self-efficacy in Indonesia. It is suggested that the lecturers to support students’ confidence and autonomy in acquiring English as a foreign language.
Comparison of Nadaraya-Watson and Local Polynomial Methods in Analyzing the Relationship Between Consumer Price Index and Inflation in South Kalimantan Salwa Hifa Fadilah; Fadhilah Fitri; Fenni Kurnia Mutiya
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/401

Abstract

This study compares the performance of two nonparametric regression methods, namely Nadaraya-Watson and Local Polynomial, in analyzing the relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation in South Kalimantan Province. Nonparametric approaches were chosen for their greater flexibility in capturing nonlinear relationships that conventional parametric models may fail to explain. The data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the period from January 2022 to December 2024, with missing values in the inflation variable handled through mean imputation. The optimal bandwidth was selected using the direct plug-in method (dpill).Visually, the Nadaraya-Watson method produced a more fluctuating curve that is highly sensitive to local variations, while the Local Polynomial method yielded a smoother and more stable curve. Quantitatively, the Local Polynomial method demonstrated better performance with lower MSE (0.1839), MAE (0.3507), and a higher R² (0.1811) compared to Nadaraya-Watson. These findings indicate that the Local Polynomial method is more effective in balancing curve flexibility and stability. This study also addresses a methodological gap by highlighting the relevance of nonparametric approaches in regional economic analysis. Future research is encouraged to explore alternative bandwidth selection methods and different kernel functions to improve estimation accuracy.
Peramalan Konsentrasi PM2.5 di Kota Medan Menggunakan Metode ARIMAX dengan Faktor Meteorologi sebagai Variabel Eksogen Fauzan Arrahman; Tessy Octavia Mukhti; Dony Permana; Fenni Kurnia Mutiya
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 4 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss4/429

Abstract

Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) is a fine particle measuring less than 2.5 micrometers which is dangerous for human health because it can penetrate the respiratory system and cause cardiovascular disorders. High PM2.5 concentrations reflect a decline in air quality, so forecasting efforts are needed to support pollution control and environmental policies. This study aims to forecast daily PM2.5 concentrations in Medan City using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) method by considering meteorological factors as exogenous variables. The data used consist of PM2.5 concentrations and average temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind speed data for the period from June 1, 2024 to June 10, 2025. The analysis results show that the best model is ARIMAX (4,1,0) with exogenous variables of average temperature and rainfall, where temperature has a positive effect and rainfall has a negative effect on PM2.5. This model meets the assumptions of white noise and residual normality, with a MAPE value of 20.635%, indicating a fairly good level of forecasting accuracy. The forecasting results show PM2.5 concentrations in the range of 19–26 µg/m³ with a downward trend at the end of June 2025, indicating improved air quality in Medan City. Thus, the ARIMAX method with meteorological factors is considered effective in modeling and forecasting PM2.5 dynamics in urban areas.
Co-Authors Chairina Wirdiastuti Dony Permana Elviza Yeni Putri Fadhilah Fitri Fauzan Arrahman Lucy Oktavani Salwa Hifa Fadilah Sepyanda, Marsika Tessy Octavia Mukhti Titiek Fujita Yusandra Yummi Meirafoni