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All Journal Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia JOURNAL OF INFORMATION SYSTEM RESEARCH (JOSH) TIN: TERAPAN INFORMATIKA NUSANTARA Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF)
Zuhdi, Shaifudin
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Geographically Weighted Random Forests for Human Development Index of Central Java Prediction Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Fatatik, Isna Nurul; Prihasno, Izlah Nur Fadlila Herawati; Rozaq, Hasri Akbar Awal
Jurnal Teknik Informatika (Jutif) Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): JUTIF Volume 6, Number 4, Agustus 2025
Publisher : Informatika, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52436/1.jutif.2025.6.4.5204

Abstract

The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model has been widely used in various types of predictions, including human development index predictions. Similarly, the random forests (RF) model has also been widely used in various value predictions. The GWR model always assumes a local linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. The RF model only produces one global model that cannot represent conditions at each location. The GWR model is susceptible to multicollinearity in each independent variable, which can lead to overfitting if multicollinearity in the model is high. To address the vulnerability of the GWR model to multicollinearity, the RF model and the GWR model can be combined. Since the RF model is not vulnerable to multicollinearity in the independent variables, the modification becomes the geographically weighted random forests (GWRF) model to improve the shortcomings of the GWR and RF models. The GWR and GWRF models were constructed using data from districts and cities in Central Java Province, which was selected as the study area due to evident disparities in human development index achievements. These disparities highlight the presence of spatial heterogeneity that conventional models fail to adequately capture. To rigorously evaluate model performance, data from 2023 were employed as training data, while data from 2024 served as testing data. This research introduces a novel integration of spatial econometric and machine learning approaches, providing a more robust framework for addressing complex spatial variations in human development outcomes. The GWRF model is capable of producing a model that does not overfit when there is multicollinearity among independent variables. The GWRF model offers a novel integration of machine learning and spatial modelling, outperforming both GWR and RF by not only delivering high predictive accuracy under complex variable relationships but also capturing nuanced local spatial heterogeneity that conventional approaches fail to address.
Analisis Spasial dan Variasi Lokal Merchant QRIS Menggunakan Adaptive Geographically Weighted Regression Werizky, Muhammad Rafli; Ramdhani, Moh Ferdinand; Ibadurrahman, Muh Taqiyudin; Hasanah, Mutiara; Kurniawan, Ilham Wira; Cianata, Bryant; Zuhdi, Shaifudin
TIN: Terapan Informatika Nusantara Vol 6 No 7 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/tin.v6i7.8945

Abstract

Indonesia’s digital payment ecosystem increasingly relies on the Quick Response Code Indonesian Standard (QRIS). However, its distribution still exhibits clear spatial disparities between western and eastern regions. This study aims to analyze local variations and the determinants influencing the number of QRIS merchants across Indonesian provinces in 2024. The analysis employs Adaptive Geographically Weighted Regression (AGWR) with an adaptive bisquare kernel to capture spatial heterogeneity that cannot be explained by global models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The independent variables used include Gross Regional Domestic Product per capita, average years of schooling, digital infrastructure, urbanization rate, population density, number of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), and internet access. The results indicate that AGWR outperforms OLS, with the Coefficient of Determination (R²) increasing from 0,806 to 0,976 and the Adjusted R² from 0,751 to 0,905. Additionally, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) decreases from 1003,417 to 967,981, while the Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) drops significantly from 1,91×10¹³ to 2,32×10¹². The empirical findings reveal that the number of MSMEs is the most consistent determinant of QRIS adoption across regions. Socioeconomic factors exhibit strong influence in Java but show limited relevance in eastern provinces such as Papua and Maluku, suggesting the presence of structural constraints in these areas. This study recommends implementing location-specific financial inclusion strategies rather than uniform national policies.
Stroke Risk Prediction using Winsorizing Interquartile Range and Tree-Based Classification with Explainable Artificial Intelligence Rahmadani, Fitria; Wiharto, Wiharto; Zuhdi, Shaifudin
Jurnal Teknik Informatika (Jutif) Vol. 6 No. 6 (2025): JUTIF Volume 6, Number 6, Desember 2025
Publisher : Informatika, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52436/1.jutif.2025.6.6.4760

Abstract

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, stroke is the third leading cause of death globally. Recognizing its signs early is crucial for both prevention and effective treatment. Although machine learning has made significant progress in predicting strokes, many current models operate like "black boxes", making them hard to interpret and often resulting in high error rates. This study aims to enhance prediction accuracy and interpretability in stroke risk detection by integrating Winsorizing Interquartile Range (IQR) for outlier management, a tree-based classification method, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques. The proposed approach applies Winsorizing Interquartile Range to handle extreme values while employing tree-based methods for prediction due to their superior performance in processing tabular data. Additionally, Explainable Artificial Intelligence techniques are utilized to improve model transparency and interpretability. Testing was conducted using the Cerebral Stroke Prediction-Imbalanced Dataset, comparing results with various existing models. The suggested approach demonstrated the lowest prediction error rates, achieving a False Positive Rate (FPR) of 15.74% and a False Negative Rate (FNR) of 8.56%. Additionally, it attained an accuracy of 84.39%, sensitivity of 91.43%, specificity of 84.26%, Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of 94.74%, and G-Mean of 87.76%, outperforming previous studies in stroke risk prediction. The combination of Winsorizing Interquartile Range, Random Under-Sampling, tree-based classification, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence techniques effectively enhances prediction accuracy and transparency, supporting early stroke detection with improved interpretability. This study contributes to medical informatics by integrating transparent predictive models suitable for decision support systems.
Prediksi Harga Penutupan Saham Gojek-Tokopedia Menggunakan Model Hybrid GARCH-LSTM Pramudito, Farhan Wegig; Arianto, Kezia Jazzlyn; Thoyib, Najma Humairoh; Arvintyani, Risquina Angelica; Herlambang, Yudhistira Jalu; Zuhdi, Shaifudin
Journal of Information System Research (JOSH) Vol 7 No 2 (2026): January 2026
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josh.v7i2.8911

Abstract

This study proposes the application of a hybrid GARCH–LSTM model to predict GoTo stock prices in the context of Indonesia's rapidly growing digital economy. GoTo stock prices are characterized by high volatility and a non-linear time series pattern, making them difficult to model using conventional approaches. Daily closing price data from 2022 to November 2025 are transformed into logarithmic returns to meet the stationarity assumption. The GARCH(1,1) model is used to estimate conditional volatility, which represents short-term risk dynamics and the volatility clustering phenomenon. Furthermore, historical returns and conditional volatility are used as additional features in the LSTM model to predict the next period's stock returns, which are then converted back into closing price predictions. The estimation results show that all GARCH parameters are statistically significant, indicating the persistence of volatility in GoTo stock data. Evaluation of the performance of the hybrid model on the test data produces an RMSE value of 3.126, an MAE of 2.245, and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.899, indicating that the model is able to represent stock price movement patterns well. These findings indicate that the hybrid GARCH–LSTM approach is effective in modeling stock price dynamics under highly volatile market conditions.
Analisis Pola Global dan Lokal Determinan Prevalensi Stunting di Jawa Tengah Tahun 2024 Menggunakan Geographically Weighted Regression Nugroho, Ivan Wahyu; Febriansyah, Candra Rifki Eka; Rahmadhani, Oktavia Suci; Murti, Basugandhi Sasangka; Sabil, Safina; Zuhdi, Shaifudin
Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia Vol 21, No 1 (2026): Vol 21 No. 1 Tahun 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jkmi.21.1.2026.48-56

Abstract

Latar belakang: Stunting masih menjadi permasalahan kesehatan masyarakat yang serius di Indonesia, salah satunya di Jawa Tengah. Pendekatan analisis global sering kali belum mampu menangkap perbedaan pengaruh determinan stunting secara local. Tujuan: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi pola global dan lokal determinan stunting di Jawa Tengah menggunakan. Metode: Penelitian kuantitatif ini menggunakan data sekunder agregat dari 35 kabupaten/kota di Jawa Tengah. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi global Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dan dilanjutkan dengan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) untuk mengidentifikasi variasi spasial pengaruh determinan stunting. Hasil: Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya heterogenitas spasial yang signifikan. Variabel persentase bayi mendapatkan ASI eksklusif dan  variabel proporsi perempuan yang melahirkan hidup pertama berusia kurang dari 20 tahun berperan signifikan secara lokal pada kabupaten/kota tertentu, sementara variabel lain tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang konsisten secara global. Model GWR mampu menjelaskan variasi spasial prevalensi stunting dengan lebih baik dibandingkan model OLS dengan nilai koefisien determasi  bernilai 0,165 vs 0,620. Kesimpulan: Determinan stunting di Jawa Tengah tidak bersifat homogen secara spasial. Pendekatan GWR efektif dalam mengungkap pola pengaruh lokal dan mendukung perlunya kebijakan penanganan stunting yang spesifik wilayah.
Co-Authors Arianto, Kezia Jazzlyn Arvintyani, Risquina Angelica Cianata, Bryant Fatatik, Isna Nurul Febriansyah, Candra Rifki Eka Hasanah, Mutiara Herlambang, Yudhistira Jalu Ibadurrahman, Muh Taqiyudin Kurniawan, Ilham Wira Murti, Basugandhi Sasangka Nugroho, Ivan Wahyu Pramudito, Farhan Wegig Prihasno, Izlah Nur Fadlila Herawati Rahmadani, Fitria Rahmadhani, Oktavia Suci Ramdhani, Moh Ferdinand Rozaq, Hasri Akbar Awal Sabil, Safina Thoyib, Najma Humairoh Werizky, Muhammad Rafli Wiharto Wiharto