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All Journal IKRA-ITH EKONOMIKA Economic: Journal Economic and Business Jurnal Manajemen, Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia
Andreas Panjaitan
Politeknik Negeri Medan
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

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Resilience of Indonesia’s Trade Balance to Short-Term Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics Andreas Panjaitan; Suny Sabila; Septri Anisa; Debora Silvia Hutagalung; Artha Putri Br Karo
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v4i4.1300

Abstract

Indonesia's trade balance is often considered vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, but in reality, the period from January 2023 to December 2024 showed a surprising pattern. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression on monthly data from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia to examine the short-term effects of the exchange rate and inflation. The results show that neither is significantly affected. Despite a moderate depreciation of the rupiah and a decline in inflation to its lowest level in history, the trade balance remains in surplus. This finding challenges the common assumption that short-term macroeconomic fluctuations determine trade performance and reveals that structural external factors such as global commodity prices and trading partner demand play a more dominant role. This study emphasizes the need for innovative sector-based trade strategies beyond conventional monetary instruments to maintain external stability.
The effect of exchange rates and interest rates on Indonesia's international trade performance during 2015–2024 Artha Putri Br Karo; Debora Silvia Hutagalung; Septri Anisa; Andreas Panjaitan
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v5i2.1547

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates on a country's foreign trade performance. Exchange rate movements influence the price competitiveness of exported and imported goods, while changes in interest rates impact capital flows and the stability of the national currency. This study applies quantitative methods using secondary data obtained from Indonesian government financial reports, international trade statistics, and monetary indicators for the period 2015 to 2024. The analysis shows that exchange rate depreciation generally encourages exports but suppresses imports. Meanwhile, interest rate increases have varying impacts, depending on market responses, particularly from investors and domestic consumers. Therefore, exchange rate stability and the implementation of appropriate interest rate policies are strategic factors in supporting the performance of the international trade sector.
The impact of money supply and interest rates on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia (2015–2024) Septri Anisa; Andreas Panjaitan; Artha Putri Br Karo; Debora Silvia Hutagalung
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v5i2.1548

Abstract

Fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate reflect the dynamics of macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy responses to domestic and global pressures. This study aims to analyze the influence of the money supply and interest rates on the rupiah exchange rate from 2015 to 2024. A quantitative approach was used, utilizing annual time series data and linear regression analysis to identify the relationship between variables. The results indicate that the money supply has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate, reflecting that increases in domestic liquidity are followed by changes in the exchange rate. Conversely, interest rates do not show a statistically significant effect. This finding confirms that liquidity plays a more dominant role than interest rates in influencing the exchange rate. Therefore, controlling the money supply is a crucial aspect in maintaining exchange rate stability.
Co-Authors Adinda Muhammad Sukamto Albeth Gamaliel Artha Putri Br Karo Asima Solifide Catrine Yolanda Siahaan Cici Ayu Octavia Della Andelina Pinem Desmon Gunadi Siagian Dicky Natanael Tarigan Evan Hansel Manalu Fransisco Mezgion Hutauruk Hutagalung, Debora Silvia Maulana Akbar Nasution Nazliani Ahmad Siregar Nur Padilah Ondo Salverius Sipayung Oskar Aritonang Raju Doni Sianturi Rekky Pratama Sirait Romasta Yolanda Putri Nainggolan Santanaya Santanaya Sarah Dian Rizki Sembiring Septri Anisa Shrimeta Oktavia Rhomazani Silviah Silviah Suny Sabila Thesalonika Oktaviana Simanjuntak Wendra Wilbertus Sembiring Milala Yeshi Anisha Nenshy Ambarita Yohana Yulianti Simbolon Yohannes Ruru Yosua Mahardika Simatupang Zesen Ebenezer Sinuhaji