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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Articles 209 Documents

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POTENSI PERDAGANGAN DAN INVESTASI SERAT RAYON DI INDONESIA Rahayu Ningsih
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 1 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.141

Indonesia masih menghadapi kelangkaan serat rayon sebagai bahan baku industri tekstil meskipun saat ini Indonesia merupakan salah satu produsen utama serat rayon. Kelangkaan serat rayon diperkirakan disebabkan oleh kecenderungan produsen domestik yang mengekspor sehingga pasokan serat rayon untuk pasar domestik menurun. Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis permasalahan perdagangan dan investasi serat rayon di Indonesia. Disimpulkan bahwa permasalahan kelangkaan serat rayon disebabkan oleh masih rendahnya kapasitas produksi industri serat rayon sehingga produksinya belum mampu memasok kebutuhan domestik. Untuk itu diperlukan kebijakan yang lebih kondusif terutama di sektor kehutanan sehingga dapat mendorong pengembangan investasi industri serat rayon di Indonesia. Indonesia has been facing the shortage of rayon fiber eventhough Indonesia is one of main producers. The shortage of rayon fiber is due to the tendency of producers to export rather than supply the domestic markets; so the supply of rayon fiber is then decreased. This study aims to analyze the problems of rayon fiber related to trade and investment policy of rayon industry in Indonesia. It concludes that the scarcity of rayon was caused by the low of production capacity. So, it needs to develop the investment of rayon industry. Meanwhile, there is still a bottleneck problem of investment in rayon industry. Then, the condussive policy especially in forestry sector is necessary to support the development of investment of rayon industry in Indonesia.

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 7 No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap kinerja ekspor Indonesia menggunakan data tahun 2005 kuartal I sampai tahun 2012 kuartal III dengan menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM). Dalam kurun waktu 2005-2012 ekspor Indonesia secara umum menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif walaupun terjadi penurunan pada periode 2008-2009 dan tahun 2012 terutama ke negara-negara tujuan Eropa dan Amerika. Ini menunjukkan bahwa ekspor Indonesia perlu ditujukan ke negara negara yang menjadi target atau sasaran baru. Studi ini menemukan bahwa nilai tukar dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek memiliki pengaruh yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Ini menunjukkan pentingnya kebijakan nilai tukar untuk memicu peningkatan ekspor Indonesia. This paper examines the influence of Indonesia’s exchange rate on the performance of Indonesia’s exports using the data from the first quarter of 2005 until the third quarter of 2012 using an Error Correction Model (ECM). During 2005-2012 Indonesia’s exports increased, except in 2008-2009 and 2012 when they declined especially to Europe and America. This suggests that Indonesia’s exports should now be directed at newly targeted countries. This study finds that the appreciation of the exchange rate, in both the long run and the short run, has a significant negative impact on exports. It shows theimportance of exchange rate policy in improving Indonesia’s export performance.

PROSPEK PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA, CINA DAN INDIA MELALUI ANALISA GRAVITY MODEL Pakasa Bary
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 2 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Global growth has shrunk affected by 2008 global financial crisis, especially contributed by advanced economies that experienced strongest decline. Indeed, it also affected their production and their demand of inputs, and hence decreased exports of countries providing upstream commodities. Meanwhile, China and India record a remarkable growth and only slightly affected by the crisis. Consistently, percentage of Indonesian exports to China and India, especially raw commodities, has been rising since 2008, and likely to increase furthermore in the future. This paper applies simple gravity model to evaluate the sensitivity of productions or income of these three economies on Indonesian exports to China and India. Using various methods and assumptions, estimation results suggest strong sensitivity of importers’ income and production. Indeed, it is likely that Indonesian exports to China and India will increase furthermore and hence boosting Indonesia economic growth along with China and India, making them the next growth triangle in Asia. While China nowadays is the strongest demand source for Indonesian exports, India may be the significant contributor in the near future. Nevertheless, there still must be significant reform in trade barriers and domestic economic strategy to support this potency in globalized world.

ANALISIS MODA ENTRI PENYEDIA JASA RITEL INDONESIA KE ASEAN: STUDI KASUS PADA ALFAMART Muhammad Fawaiq
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis moda entri jasa ritel Indonesia ke negara-negara ASEAN sesuai dengan komitmen setiap negara di AFAS Paket 8. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif dan indeks Hoekman. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa Alfamart masuk ke pasar jasa ritel Filipina tanpa memanfaatkan kerjasama AFAS. Hal ini disebabkan Filipina masih menutup jasa ritelnya pada kerjasama tersebut. Moda entri yang digunakan Alfamart untuk masuk ke Filipina adalah waralaba. Suksesnya Alfamart menjadi tolak ukur untuk mengembangkan alternatif moda entri ke negara-negara ASEAN lainnya sesuai dengan hasil pemetaan peluang akses pasar di AFAS Paket 8. Moda Entri yang diusulkan tersebut yaitu: a) Waralaba untuk negara yang belum terbuka (indeks Hoekman 0) yaitu Brunei Darussalam dan Laos, b) Usaha patungan pada negara-negara yang membuka akses pasar dengan pembatasan (indeks Hoekman 0,5) yaitu Malaysia dan Myanmar, dan c) Kepemilikan saham penuh pada negara-negara yang membuka akses pasar tanpa pembatasan (indeks Hoekman 1) yaitu Vietnam, Kamboja, Singapura dan Thailand. Faktor kunci suksesnya ekspor jasa ritel dalam kasus ini adalah mitra bisnis lokal yang membeli master franchise. Untuk itu, pemerintah dapat berperan dalam promosi dan misi dagang ke luar negeri untuk menarik mitra bisnis. The aim of this study is to analyze the mode of entry of Indonesia’s retail supplier into ASEAN countries in accordance with the commitment of each country in AFAS Package 8. The methods deployed in this study are the Hoekman Index and descriptive analysis. The study results show that Alfamart has entered into the Philippine market retail services without utilizing AFAS cooperation. This is due to Philippines’s policy that still close its retail services market on such cooperation. The mode of entry used by Alfamart is franchise service. The success of Alfamart can be a benchmark to develop alternative modes of entry into other ASEAN countries in accordance with market access opportunities mapping of AFAS package 8. The alternatives of entry modes proposed in this study are: a) franchise for countries that does not have open access yet (indeks Hoekman 0) such as Brunei Darussalam and Laos, b) joint ventures in countries which have limited open access (indeks Hoekman 0.5) such as Malaysia and Myanmar , c) and wholly owned subsidiary in countries with full access into the market without restrictions (indeks Hoekman 1) such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore and Thailand. A key factor which contributes to the success of retail service exports is local business partners who purchases master franchise. For that, the government can play a decisive role in promoting trade missions abroad to attract business partners.

REVIEW KEBIJAKAN PERPAJAKAN DALAM RANGKA PENGEMBANGAN EKSPOR HASIL INDUSTRI PERHIASAN Tumpal Sihaloho; Leo Mualdy Christoffel
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1 No 1 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Industri perhiasan baik yang terbuat dari emas perak maupun dari batuan mulia memiliki kontribusi terhadap total industry nasional yaitu sekitar 4,76% dari total output produksi nasional dan dari sisi penyerapan tenaga kerja nasional dapat menyerap sekitar 0,44%. Perkembangan ekspor produk perhiasan dalam waktu lima tahun terakhir menunjukkan tren nilai ekspor yang cenderung menurun. Pada tahun 2001 nilai ekspor mencapai US$ 491 juta dan pada tahun 2005 hanya sekitar US$ 263 juta. Pangsa Ekspor Indonesia dipasar dunia masih relative kecil yaitu sekitar 0,3% dari total ekspor dunia yang mencapai US$ 20,9 miliar.Menurunnya nilai ekspor perhiasan lima tahun terakhir diindikasikan akibat menurunnya daya saing komoditas tersebut yang antara lain diakibatkan mutu yang rendah, desain yang tidak mengikuti tren pasar dunia serta harga yang tidak kompetitif. Kurangnya kegiatan promosi dan pameran serta iklim usaha yang tidak mendukung turut serta menurunkan market share komoditas ini di pasar dunia. Potensi berupa tenaga kerja yang banyak, sumber bahan baku yang tersedia serta pasar yang masih terbuka lebar memungkinkan untuk lebih mengembangkan sektor ini melalui peningkatan comparative advantage serta meningkatkan efisiensi serta spesialisasi produksi disamping meningkatkan frekuensi event promosi dengan mengundang pelaku usaha dari manca negara. Hal tersebut pada gilirannya dapat melihat posisi negara-negara pesaing, terutama produsen utama produk perhiasan untuk dapat mengetahui tingkat daya saing produk perhiasan Indonesia di pasar global.

ANALISIS STRUKTUR, PERILAKU DAN KINERJA PERUSAHAAN ELEKTRONIK SETELAH PELAKSANAAN LIBERALISASI ACFTA Adrian D Lubis; Alla Asmara
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini mengkaji kondisi riil industri elektronik nasional setelah pelaksanaan liberalisasi perdagangan ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement (AFCTA) dengan menggunakan Indeks Spesialisasi Perdagangan (ISP), Intra Industry Trade (IIT) dan struktur, perilaku dan kinerja industri eletronik. Hasil analisis mengindikasikan bahwa liberalisasi menyebabkan penurunan kinerja industri elektronik akibat ketergantungan pada bahan baku impor, keterbatasan infrastruktur, industri penunjang, tenaga kerja terlatih, serta biaya listrik tinggi. Namun, liberalisasi meningkatkan akses bahan baku murah, tehnologi baru, efisiensi perusahaan dan kemampuan desain sebagai penunjang daya saing. Oleh karena itu, direkomendasikan pengembangan industri hulu, penyediaan sumber energi murah, perlindungan hak cipta, serta pemberlakuan trade remedies untuk meningkatkan kinerja industri elektronik nasional. This study is about the analysis on actual condition for the Indonesian electronic industry after the implementation of the ASEAN China Free Trade Agreement (AFCTA) using Trade Specialization Index and Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP). The study found that Indonesia’s trade performance has become less competitive. This condition occured due to the lack of national competitiveness subject to high dependency on imported raw materials, supporting industry, expensive electricity and skilled labors. However, liberalization has been increasing Indonesia’s access to cheap raw material, new technology, efficiency, and design capability. This study reccomends that in order to to increase domestic electronic industry performance, Indonesia has to build supporting industry, cheap electricity, enforcement of copyright, and trade remedies application to increase domestic electronic industry performance.

KEBIJAKAN DAERAH DIBIDANG PERDAGANGAN YANG MENYEBABKAN EKONOMI BIAYA TINGGI Firman Mutakin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 2 No 2 (2008)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Every country in the free trade era either in the context of multilateral, regional and bilateral is required to improve the competitiveness bacause of the increasing of free trade, tight competition, therefore the policies that have potential to disserve trade and business environment should be minimised. A number of region policy (in the form of tax or Perda of retribution) that burden business environment use the corporate world semejak autonomous region put in place since region autonomy are springing up. Amount of Perda of retribution even tax change quite a lot, which is untill 2006 recorded 9.366 Perda and 962 Reperda. During this time several Perda is still perceived as the main cause of a high cost economy because in the implementation larger than the normal fee and reviewed of several Perda show the negative impact for the business entire in region. Therefore a review of Perda needs to be done in a comprehensive manner, the evaluation of the implementation also needed to be made in periodically and in addition is giving an award to the region who create a conducive business entire.

ANALISIS INTEGRASI HARGA LADA DI PASAR DOMESTIK DAN INTERNASIONAL Dewi Asrini Fazaria; Dedi Budiman Hakim; Sahara Sahara
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10 No 2 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Lada merupakan produk komoditas ekspor Indonesia yang diekspor ke berbagai negara. Ketergantungan lada Indonesia pada pasar ekspor menjadikan harga lada domestik mengikuti fluktuasi harga lada di pasar dunia meskipun harga lada di pasar domestik tidak selalu linier dengan harga lada dunia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keterkaitan harga lada Indonesia dengan harga lada internasional. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan dari tahun 1990-2014 dan dianalisis dengan menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa harga lada hitam lokal dan lada hitam spot memiliki hubungan integrasi baik pada jangka panjang maupun pendek. Sementara pengaruh timbal balik terjadi pada harga lada putih. Harga lada putih lokal terintegrasi dengan harga lada putih ekspor dan harga lada putih spot baik pada jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Penyaluran informasi harga yang lancar dan dapat diakses oleh setiap pelaku pemasaran sangat perlu untuk diupayakan. Diharapkan dengan adanya kelancaran informasi, pelaku pemasaran khususnya yang berada di tingkat lokal memiliki posisi tawar yang semakin kuat serta dapat terhindar dari praktek yang menyebabkan timbulnya market power dalam pemasaran lada. Pepper is one of the Indonesian commodities which has been exported to various countries.The dependence of Indonesia’s exporting pepper has caused the domestic price of pepper to follow the fluctuations of the world’s market price, even though the domestic price is not necessarily linked to the world market. This study aims to find out the relation between the domestic pepper price to the world’s market price. The data were from 1990-2014 and were analyzed using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method.The results indicated that the price of local black pepper and spot black pepper had good integration relationship in long and short term. Besides, the mutual relation occurs in white pepper price. The price of local white pepper is related to the exported one, and is also related to the price of spot white pepper both in short term and long term. Good distribution of pepper and access to current pricing information is necessary to be done. By using a good access to information, marketing actors especially those at local marketing level will have a stronger bargaining position and therefore it can avoid practices that might cause market power in pepper market.

POLICY OPTIONS TO LOWER RICE PRICES IN INDONESIA Hizkia Respatiadi; Hana Nabila
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Di Indonesia, harga beras membuat 28 juta masyarakat pra-sejahtera menghabiskan nyaris separuh penghasilannya. Menanggapi hal ini, pemerintah menerapkan Harga Eceran Tertinggi (HET) dan menugaskan Badan Urusan Logistik (Bulog) untuk menstabilkan harga beras. Sebagai salah satu perwujudan tugasnya, Bulog ditunjuk menjadi importir tunggal beras. Kajian ini menganalisis efektiitas HET, kinerja Bulog sebagai importir beras, dan korelasi antara harga beras di Indonesia dan pasar internasional. Makalah ini mengusulkan opsi kebijakan untuk menurunkan harga beras dengan menggarisbawahi potensi perdagangan internasional. Makalah ini menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) dan hasil wawancara. Hasilnya: (1) HET menekan para pedagang eceran, sementara para tengkulak, pemilik penggilingan, dan pedagang grosir yang mengambil laba terbesar dari sistem distribusi beras dalam negeri; (2) Akibat kendala birokrasi, Bulog kerap mengimpor beras ketika harga internasional sudah telanjur meningkat; (3) Harga beras di Indonesia terdeviasi dan lebih mahal dibandingkan pasar internasional. Makalah ini merekomendasikan agar pemerintah mengkaji HET, memberikan kebebasan kepada Bulog untuk menentukan waktu maupun kuantitas beras yang perlu diimpornya dengan berdasarkan pada analisis pasar, dan membentuk forum konsultasi dengan sektor swasta yang memenuhi syarat. Hal ini akan menjaga harga beras senantiasa kompetitif baik bagi konsumen maupun pedagang eceran, serta akan membawa Indonesia lebih dekat dengan rantai nilai regional. In Indonesia, rice prices cost around 28 million poor nearly half of their income. In response, the government implements price ceiling (HET) and assigns National Logistics Agency (Bulog) to stabilize rice prices. As part of its duties, Bulog was appointed as the sole rice importer. This study analyzed the effectiveness of HET, Bulog’s performance as rice importer, and the correlation between rice prices in Indonesia and in international market. This paper explores policy options to lower rice prices by highlighting the potential of international trade. This study used Error Correction Models (ECM) and semi-structured interviews. The results: (1) HET pressures retailers, while middlemen, rice millers, and wholesalers benefit the most from domestic rice distribution; (2) Due to bureaucratic constraints, Bulog frequently imported rice when international prices were already rising; (3) Rice prices in Indonesia deviate away from and higher than the international market. This paper recommends the government to review HET, to give freedom to Bulog to determine the timing and quantity of rice importation based on its market analysis, and to organize consultative forums with qualified private sector. This will keep the prices competitive for both consumers and retailers and bring Indonesia closer to the regional value chain.

IJ-EPA DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA - JEPANG Aziza Rahmaniar Salam; Sefiani Rayadiani; Immanuel Lingga
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 1 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.136

Indonesia dan Jepang telah menandatangani perjanjian kerjasama Indonesia Jepang Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) pada tahun 2007. Untuk mewujudkan kesepakatan perdagangan bebas tersebut dan untuk menghindari adanya trade diversion sebagai dampak dari tarif preferensi, maka kedua negara mempersyaratkan Surat Keterangan Asal (SKA) untuk mensertifikasi asal barang yang diperdagangkan. Berdasarkan hasil analisa data statistik dan survey diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa pemanfaatan SKA Form IJEPA ternyata relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kesepakatan perdagangan bebas lainnya yang telah ditandatangani dan diimpelementasikan di Indonesia. Ketidakoptimalan yang terjadi dikarenakan beberapa faktor antara lain: masih adanya penggunaan Form A dalam ekspor ke Jepang, keterbatasan sumber daya manusia (SDM) yang terdapat di berbagai IPSKA, keengganan pencantuman struktur biaya dalam SKA Form IJ-EPA, dan kurangnya sosialisasi mengenai fasilitas IJ-EPA. Dari segi perdagangan bilateral, kesepakatan perdagangan bebas IJ-EPA berdampak pada perubahan pola impor Indonesia dari Jepang dimana terdapat beberapa produk yang mengalami lonjakan, seperti produk Kendaraan Bermotor dan Mesin Disel. Sebaliknya, implementasi IJ-EPA tidak memiliki dampak yang berarti terhadap pola ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang. In 2007 Indonesia and Japan signed a partnership agreement of Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA). In order to implement the IJ-EPA and to prevent trade diversion as an impact of tariff preferences, both governments required the Certificate of Origin (COO) scheme. This study elaborates the use of COO-IJ-EPA and the impact of IJ-EPA on bilateral trade performances between the two countries. According to data analysis and survey, it was found that the number of COO-IJ-EPA was the lowest compared to other free trade agreements. The low share of the COO-IJ-EPA was caused by the following factors: the use of Form A as an alternative choice in export activity, inadequate human resources at the institutions issuing COO, reluctance to disclose the production cost structure and the lack of socialization in regards with trade facilitation under IJ-EPA scheme. Bilateral agreement under IJ-EPA has also brought impact to the Indonesia’s import pattern with Japan. After the implementation of the agreement, Indonesia’s import for certain products increased significantly, such as importation of automotive products and diesel machines. On the contrary, the agreement did not have significant impact to Indonesia’s export pattern.

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