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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Articles 209 Documents

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APAKAH SUNK COST ENTRY BERPENGARUH PADA EKSPOR INDONESIA KE SINGAPURA?: PENDEKATAN AGGREGATE Azis Muslim
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Bagi Indonesia, Singapura telah lama dikenal sebagai negara perantara (intermediary) perdagangan untuk ekspor maupun impor. Secara umum sunk cost entry to export merupakan pertimbangan untuk masuk ke pasar ekspor, namun dalam kondisi terdapatnya perantara perdagangan apakah sunk cost entry to export tidak menjadi pertimbangan untuk masuk ke pasar ekspor? Untuk mengetahui hal tersebut dilakukan penelitian dengan tujuan untuk menguji apakah sunk cost entry berpengaruh atau tidak untuk ekspor Indonesia ke Singapura. Model penelitian menggunakan model histerisis Baldwin-Krugman dengan pertimbangan penggunaan data aggregate dan lonjakan nilai tukar. Metode yang digunakan adalah perubahan koefisien pada saat structural break sedangkan nilainya diestimasi dengan model regresi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sunk cost entry tidak memengaruhi ekspor Indonesia ke Singapura atau dengan kata lain tidak menjadi pertimbangan memasuki pasar ekspor Singapura. Temuan tersebut bermanfaat bagi eksportir dengan modal terbatas untuk menggunakan Singapura sebagai intermediary. Pemerintah sebagai fasilitator dapat menyarankan kepada eksportir pemula terutama eksportir dengan modal terbatas untuk menjadikan Singapura sebagai perantara dalam perdagangan. Singapore has been known as an intermediary country for Indonesia’s export and import trade. Sunk cost entry is one of the exporter considerations to enter an export market. However, if there is an intermediary trade, does sunk cost still become a consideration? The purpose of this study is to examine whether the sunk cost entry affects Indonesian export to Singapore or not. This study uses Baldwin-Krugman’s Hysteresis model due to an aggregate data usage and a surge in the exchange rate. This study uses the coefficient changes method since structural break is happening and its value is estimated by the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) regression model. The result shows that sunk cost does not affect Indonesian exports to Singapore, or in another word it does not become a consideration to enter Singapore markets. It is important that the exporters with limited capital use Singapore as an intermediary. The Government should propose beginner exporters to choose Singapore as the intermediary country trade.

KLAUSULA BAKU DALAM BIDANG PERUMAHAN Yudha Hadian Nur; Ratna Anita Carolina
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Standard agreement is one of the instruments used in the business that aim to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of transactions conducted between businesses and consumers. But the problem that often occurs is the standard agreement does not reflect a balanced position between businesses and consumers. In line with this problem, this study aims to identify deviations to the provisions of Article 18 of Consumer Protection Law on standard clauses, particularly in the housing sector, and identify consumer understanding of the existence of standard clauses and the impact after the signing the sale purchase agreement (PPJB) of house. This study was conducted in five regions namely Jabodetabek, Bandung, Surabaya, Batam and Makassar. The analytical method used collecting data the depth interviews with stakeholders, analysis of the contents of the PPJB document, and the descriptive analysis of the survey to the consumer respondents. The results of this study show that in general, there are several housing developers who include standard clauses that are prohibited in the PPJB of house and other documents which are an integral part of the PPJB. In addition, the analysis also show that although the consumer has read the PPJB document, the average consumer does not understand the intent of these agreements. This is due to the bonafides developers and confidence to the developers. Based on that problem, it is needed to increased sosialization of the rights and obligations of the consumers and businessmen to create the conducive business climate in the context of consumer protection.

PENGARUH DIVERSIFIKASI EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN NILAI TAMBAH PER TENAGA KERJA SEKTOR MANUFAKTUR BERBASIS AGRO DAN NON-AGRO Yudi Risman Hadiyanto
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 2 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh diversifikasi ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan nilai tambah per tenaga kerja sektor manufaktur berbasis agro dan non-agro. Data yang digunakan adalah data statistik industri (manufaktur) dan data ekspor periode 2000-2010 dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi panel dengan estimasi System Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) untuk mengatasi endogenitas pada variabel penjelas dan otokorelasi antara dependen variabel dengan lag-nya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa diversifikasi pasar ekspor berkorelasi negatif dengan pertumbuhan nilai tambah per tenaga kerja manufaktur non-agro tapi tidak berpengaruh pada manufaktur agro. Diversifikasi produk horizontal ekspor berpengaruh positif bagi manufaktur non-agro tapi pengaruhnya negatif bagi manufaktur agro. Ini menunjukkan bahwa menambah varian produk ekspor dapat mendorong pertumbuhan nilai tambah per tenaga kerja manufaktur non-agro sedangkan manufaktur agro sebaliknya. Diversifikasi produk vertikal ekspor berpengaruh positif bagi pertumbuhan nilai tambah per tenaga kerja manufaktur non-agro namun tidak memberikan pengaruh bagi pertumbuhan nilai tambah per tenaga kerja manufaktur agro. Ini berarti bahwa -peningkatan ekspor produk-produk hilir manufaktur non-agro mampu mendorong pertumbuhan nilai tambah per tenaga kerja sektor manufaktur. Untuk menumbuhkan sektor manufaktur Pemerintah perlu mendorong investasi dan ekspor produk hilir dari manufaktur non-agro serta meningkatkan ekspor produk berdaya saing tinggi dari manufaktur agro. This study analyzes the effect of export diversification on the value added growth per labor of agro and non-agro based manufacturing sector. This research used the statistical data of industry (manufacturing) and export data in the period of 2000-2010, provided by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). As a method of analysis, panel regression is utilized using Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) in order to overcome the endogeneity problem on the explanatory variables and autocorrelation between the dependent variable and its lag. The results showed that the diversification of export markets has a negative correlation with the value added growth per labor of non-agro manufacturing sector but has no effect on agro manufacture. The horizontal product diversification of export has a positive impact on nonagro manufacture while for agro manufacture is negative. This indicates that the increasing of exported products can encourage the value added growth per labor, but it has the opposite effect on the agro manufacturing. The diversification of the vertical exported product has a positive influence on the value added growth per labor of non agro manufacture but does not give effect on the agro manufacture. This means that the increase of export of final products of non-agro manufacture is able to encourage the growth of the manufacturing sector. To support the growth of manufacturing sector, the goverment needs to encourage investment and exports of downstream industry products of non-agro manufacture and increase the export of highly competitive products in the agro manufacture.

ANALISIS DAMPAK LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN BARANG PADA PERUNDINGAN INDONESIA–EU CEPA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Steven Raja Ingot; Ridho Meyrandoyo Hastjarjo
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Uni Eropa (EU) merupakan salah satu negara tujuan utama ekspor Indonesia, namun pangsa pasar Indonesia di Uni Eropa masih di bawah beberapa negara ASEAN lainnya. Pada tahun 2015, pangsa pasar Indonesia di Uni Eropa baru mencapai 0,37% masih berada di bawah pangsa pasar Thailand (0,48%), Malaysia (0,49%), dan Vietnam (0,74%) (Trademap 2017). Indonesia membutuhkan akses pasar untuk dapat meningkatkan pangsa pasar di Uni Eropa dan salah satunya adalah dengan melakukan liberalisasi perdagangan barang. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak liberalisasi perdagangan barang terhadap perekonomian Indonesia dengan dua opsi, yaitu Simulasi 1 (SIM1) yaitu penghapusan tarif 100% untuk 4.945 pos tarif HS 6 digit. Simulasi 2 (SIM2) yaitu penghapusan tarif 100% kecuali untuk Uni Eropa sebanyak 260 pos tarif dan Indonesia sebanyak 235 pos tarif. Simulasi 2 digunakan untuk mempertimbangkan modalitas yang mirip dengan modalitas Vietnam-EU Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (Vietnam-EU PCA). Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) yang terdapat pada Global Trade Analytical Project (GTAP). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa simulasi 1 memberikan dampak yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan simulasi 2, karena tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan Indonesia pada simulasi 1 lebih besar daripada simulasi 2. Namun demikian, Indonesia tetap dapat menggunakan modalitas sebagaimana dilakukan oleh kerjasama Vietnam-EU PCA sebagai dasar perundingan Indonesia – European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (I-EU CEPA) karena selisihnya dikategorikan tidak terlalu besar. European Union (EU) is one of the main destinations of Indonesian export; however, the Indonesia’s market share has been left behind compared to some other ASEAN countries. In 2015, Indonesia's market share in the EU has reached only 0.37%, which was still left behind from the market share of Thailand (0.48%), Malaysia (0.49%) and Vietnam (0.74%) (Trademap, 2017). Indonesia requires a market access to increase market share in the EU, for instance by liberalizing trade in goods. This study aims to analyze the impact of liberalization of trade in goods on the Indonesian economy with two options: Simulation 1(SIM 1) by reducing tariff 100% for 4,945 tariff lines based on HS 6 digits, and Simulation 2 (SIM 2) by reducing 100% tariffs except 260 tariffs lines of EU and 235 tariff lines of Indonesia. Simulation 2 was conducted to consider the similiar modalities undertaken by Vietnam-EU Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (Vietnam-EU PCA). The analytical methods used Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in the Global Trade Analytical Project (GTAP). The result shows that simulation 1 gives a better impact compared to simulation 2, as the level of economic growth and the welfare of Indonesia. Simulation 1 is larger than Simulation 2. However, Indonesia can use the modalities similar with Vietnam-EU PCA modalities as the basis of the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (I-EU CEPA) negotiations because the difference is not significant.

IMPLEMENTASI SISTEM RESI GUDANG (SRG) PADA KOMODITI JAGUNG: STUDI KASUS DI KABUPATEN TUBAN, PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR Nurlia Listiani; Bagas Haryotejo
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 7 No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan mengkaji berbagai faktor yang mempengaruhi petani dalam memanfaatkan Sistem Resi Gudang dan menganalisis manfaat penerapan SRG di Kabupaten Tuban. Metode yang digunakan adalah model Decision Matrix Analysis dan Metode Value Tree Objective. Hasil analisis DMA menunjukkan bahwa faktor utama pemanfaatan SRG adalah ketersediaan sarana dan prasarana gudang. Manfaat terbesar yang diperoleh petani adalah keuntungan dari adanya selisih harga jual saat panen dengan paska panen. Namun demikian, belum semua petani bersedia menggunakan SRG. Oleh karena itu, penerapan SRG perlu (1) sosialisasi, edukasi, dan succes story agar dapat diikuti oleh para petani; (2) lembaga seperti koperasi untuk menampung hasil panen; (3) dryer khusus untuk komoditas jagung. This study aims to examine the various factors influencing the farmers in using the warehouse receipt system and to analyze the benefits and costs in applying SRG for corn in Tuban, East Java province. Decision Matrix Analysis model is used to analyze the main factors that control farmers to use the warehouse receipt system, while Value Tree Objective is used to analyze the benefit and cost from using the warehouse receipt system. Based on the DMA model, the main factor influencing the farmers in using the warehouse system is the availability of facilities and infrastructures that support the warehouse. The biggest benefit from using warehouse receipt system is a gain coming from the price difference between sale during harvest time and post harvest. However, there are still many farmers who are reluctant to use the system. In order to encourage farmers, the implementation of SRG needs (1) socialization, education, and presenting success story; (2) the establishment of an institution like cooperative to load the harvest; (3) provision of special drier for corn.

ANALISIS KEIKUTSERTAAN INDONESIA DALAM INISIATIF SEKTORAL UNTUK PRODUK PERIKANAN, KIMIA DAN KEHUTANAN Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 2 No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Sectoral initiative is an alternative to obtain better market access through the deletion of tariffs for some products or certain sectors. The negotiations sectoral initiatives consists of 12 sectors, but in this study only focuses on three main sectors, namely fisheries, chemical and forestry. The analysis performed in this study using three approaches: 1. Effective Rate Protection (ERP; 2. Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA); and 3. General Equilibrium Models. The study found that the fisheries sector is the most ready to face the deletion of the tariffs because its relatively unprotect and competitive in the world. As for forestry products, tariff deletion in the sectoral initiative is expected will not provide benefits due to raw material shortages (moratorium) which reduces the competitiveness of Indonesia in the world. While chemical products today have high protection and less competitive, the deletion of the tariff is predicted will lead to an increase in imports. However, if the goal is to achieve cheaper raw materials in the chemical industry, this product is recommended to be include in sectoral initiatives.

DINAMIKA KERJASAMA EKONOMI INDONESIA DENGAN ANGGOTA ORGANISASI KONFERENSI ISLAM (OKI): POTENSI DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Agus Syarip Hidayat
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.21

Sejak Organisasi Konferensi Islam (OKI) berdiri tahun 1969, kerjasama ekonomi antar anggotanya yang berjumlah 57 negara terbilang belum intensif. Salah satu indikasinya adalah rendahnya porsi intra-trade dan intra-investment OKI, serta pertumbuhan mereka yang juga relatif lambat. Penelitian ini membahas dinamika kerja sama ekonomi antara Indonesia dan anggota OKI serta prospek liberalisasi ekonomi OKI dan potensi dampaknya terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Model yang digunakan adalah standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Analisis menunjukkan bahwa liberalisasi ekonomi OKI berpotensi memberikan dampak sektoral yang beragam bagi Indonesia, khususnya terlihat pada variabel makroekonomi seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi, output industri dan perdagangan. Indonesia dan anggota OKI lainnya dapat memperoleh manfaat optimal ketika diterapkan full liberalization. Oleh karena itu, Indonesia perlu mengambil peran untuk mendorong percepatan dan pendalaman liberalisasi perdagangan yang lebih komprehensif antar anggota OKI. Sebagai langkah awal, Indonesia perlu segera meratifikasi perjanjian Trade Preferential System of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (TPS-OIC). Since the establishment of Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in 1969, the level of economic cooperation among its 57 member-countries has been limited, indicated by the low portion of intra-trade and intra-investment among the OIC members and their relatively slow growth. This study discusses the dynamic economic cooperation between Indonesia and the OIC members. Further, it analyzes the prospect of OIC economic liberalization and its potential impacts on the Indonesian economy. It uses secondary data and employs the standard of General Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. It shows that the OIC economic liberalization potentially had varying sectoral impacts on Indonesian economy, which was particularly shown by macroeconomic variables (such as economic growth and inflation), industrial output, and trade. Furthermore, Indonesia and other OIC members would obtain optimum benefits when full liberalization is applied.

DAMPAK NON TARIFF MEASURES (NTMs) TERHADAP EKSPOR UDANG INDONESIA Septika Tri Ardiyanti; Ayu Sinta Saputri
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan non tarif terhadap ekspor udang dan olahannya dari Indonesia. Untuk mengetahui dampak NTM terhadap ekspor, studi ini menggunakan gravity model dengan panel data. Variabel yang digunakan antara lain volume ekspor udang dan olahannya, PDB negara tujuan ekspor, nilai tukar riil, jarak ekonomi, tarif bea masuk dan variabel NTM berupa SPS dan TBT. Kajian ini menunjukkan bahwa NTM memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor udang dan olahan udang nasional. Pengenaan TBT di negara tujuan ekspor memiliki dampak negatif yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan SPS. Volume ekspor udang dan olahan ke negara mitra yang menerapkan TBT 30,2% lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara yang tidak menerapkan TBT, sementara ekspor ke negara dengan SPS 21,3% lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara yang tidak menerapkan SPS. Hal tersebut menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia belum mampu untuk memenuhi standar dan persyaratan impor yang diterapkan di negara tujuan ekspor. Dengan demikian, pemerintah diharapkan dapat memberikan bantuan bagi para eksportir udang dengan memberikan bantuan informasi pasar serta regulasi yang berlaku di negara tujuan ekspor. Selain itu, pemerintah juga perlu untuk memberikan dukungan sehingga eksportir dapat memenuhi standar dan persyaratan yang berlaku di negara tujuan ekspor. This study aims to analyze the impact of non-tariff policy on shrimp and processed shrimp in Indonesia. To analyze the impact of NTM on Indonesia's shrimp export, this study uses gravity model with panel data. Variables used are export volume of Indonesia’s shrimp and processed shrimp, GDP of export destination countries, real exchange rate, economic distance, import duty and NTM variables (SPS and TBT). This study shows that NTM has negative impact on shrimp exports. The imposition of TBT in export destination countries has a greater negative impact on shrimp export c than SPS. The shrimp export volume to the partner countries appliying TBT is 30,2% lower than countries that not applying TBT, while exports to cpuntries imposing SPs is 21,3% lower than countries without SPS. This fact indicates that Indonesia’s exporters has not been able to meet standards and requirements applied by export destination countries. Therefore, the government is expected to provide assistance to the exporters by providing market information, regulation and requirements in export destination country. In addition, the government also needs to provide support so that exporters could meet the standards and requirements applied by export destination countries.

DAMPAK FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Muhammad Afdi Nizar
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak fluktuasi harga minyak di pasar dunia terhadap perekonomian Indonesia periode tahun 2000–2011. Dengan menggunakan data time series bulanan dan model VAR, studi ini menganalisis dampak fluktuasi harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi, uang beredar, nilai tukar riil, dan suku bunga. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi harga minyak di pasar dunia: (i) berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 3 bulan (satu kuartal), (ii) mendorong laju inflasi domestik selama satu tahun, (iii) meningkatkan jumlah uang beredar di dalam negeri; penambahan jumlah uang beredar berlangsung selama 5 bulan, (iv) berdampak negatif terhadap nilai tukar riil rupiah selama 10 bulan dan (v) menyebabkan naiknya suku bunga di dalam negeri (efek ini berlangsung selama 10 bulan). Oleh karena itu, pemerintah perlu menempuh langkah-langkah yang bisa mentransformasikan kebiasaan masyarakat yang semula boros BBM menjadi hemat BBM. Selain itu, dibutuhkan kebijakan yang mendorong pengembangan energi alternatif. This study aims to determine the impact of oil price shocks in the world markets on the economy of Indonesia during 2000–2011. Based on monthly time series data and using VAR model, the study tries to analyze effects of oil price shocks to economic growth, inflation rates, money supply, real exchange rates and interest rates. The results show several conclusions: (i) the oil price shocks in the world market have a positive impact on quarterly economic growth; (ii) it also pushes up the domestic inflation rate for a year; (iii) it increases the domestic money supply which lasts for 5 months; (iv) it negatively affects the real exchange rate of Rupiah for 10 months and (v) it leads to rising domestic interest rates (the effect of oil shocks on interest rates lasted for 10 months). Therefore, government needs to take steps that could transform the people habits of fuel uses from wasteful to the efficient one. In addition, the alternative energy development also needs to promoted.

KAJIAN LAYANAN PURNA JUAL Heny Sukesi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3 No 2 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Since 1999, government has issued Consumer Protection Act No. 8/1999. Following the act, in 2002, Government has issued Industry and Trade Ministry Decree No. 634/MPP/Kep/9/2002 to monitor good and service distribution. One of focus of the decree is to regulate the implementation of “after sales service” The problems of after sales service are occurred in regulation and implementation terms, such as: lack of comprehensive monitoring program and lack of consumer awareness toward “after sales service”. The findings of this research are: (i) The “after sales service” regulation have not been implemented optimally. A lot of goods and services are distributed without appropriate guarantees, (ii) the implementation of the regulation faces with a lack of resources to conduct monitoring and supervision activities; (iii) Producers perceive that the implementation of sales service program has less benefit on the improvement of market share (73,6 % of respondent) and the increasing their omzet (55.5 % of respondent); and (iv) there are only about 42,9% of consumers prefer to purchase of good and service in market/shop that have good after sales service. Based on the findings, it is recommended for government to: (i) revise the industry and Trade Ministry Decree No.547/MPP/Kep/7/2002 for Guidelines of Manual Registration and guarantee Card for Information Technology and electronic product. The decree should explicity point out in title provision, definition, product criteria, scope, and responsibility of seller; and (ii) improve the awareness of producer abouturgency of “after sales service” and the monitoring activities through supervisor resource, socialization of regulation, monitoring periodically and publishing “after sales service” assessment, such us customer satisfaction index, and finally improve the access of information for consumer and enhance their awareness concerning after sales sevices.

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