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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY DAN EXPORT SIMILARITY SERTA PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA KE NEGARA-NEGARA ANGGOTA OKI Lili Retnosari; Nasrudin .
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Pada tahun 2014, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara anggota OKI sekitar 14% dari total ekspor Indonesia sejak bergabung dengan OKI 1969. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti apakah produk ekspor Indonesia sesuai dengan produk impor yang diminta oleh negara OKI. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah trade complementarity dan export similarity index. Kedua indeks tersebut kemudian diuji pengaruhnya terhadap ekspor Indonesia dengan menggunakan model regresi panel untuk mengidentifikasi pasar ekspor potensial. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota OKI adalah pasar ekspor yang potensial karena kesesuaian produk yang diimpor. Hal ini didukung oleh nilai trade complementarity indek yang tinggi dan cenderung meningkat serta nilai export similarity indek yang cenderung menurun selama periode 2000-2014. Hal itu diperkuat dengan hasil regresi panel yang menunjukkan bahwa kedua indeks memberikan dampak positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Negara negara anggota OKI yang merupakan pasar ekspor potensial adalah Turki, Mesir, Yordania, Djibouti, Uni Emirat Arab, Bangladesh, Pakistan, dan Nigeria. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor ke negara-negara potensial melalui promosi dan pameran dagang secara lebih intensif. In 2014, total Indonesian export to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries reached 14% of its total exports since the country joined the OIC in 1969. This study examines whether Indonesia’s export products complement with the OIC member countries’s import products. This study uses trade complementarity and export similarity index. Furthermore, those indexes tested the impact on Indonesia’s export to the OIC member countries by using panel regression to identify the potential market. The results show that the OIC member countries are the potential export market because their import products match with the Indonesia’s export products. It is indicated by high trade complementarity index that tends to rise and export similarity index which tends to decrease from 2000-2014. This is reinforced by panel regression results that conclude that both indexes give a significant positive effect to boost Indonesia’s export. The OIC member countries that are potential export markets according to the model are Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nigeria. Therefore, the government needs to increase export to potential countries through more intensive trade promotion and exhibition.

DEKOMPOSISI PERTUMBUHAN DAN DIVERSIFIKASI EKSPOR NON MIGAS INDONESIA Aditya Paramitha Alhayat
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 6 No 1 (2012)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v6i1.135

Studi ini ditujukan untuk mengetahui peran komponen pertumbuhan ekspor non migas Indonesia yang pada tahun 2010 mencatatkan pertumbuhan signifikan, sekaligus untuk menganalisis struktur ekspor. Pada dasarnya, studi ini mengikuti kajian yang dilakukan oleh Amiti dan Freud (2007) untuk mengetahui kontribusi produk baru terhadap pertumbuhan ekspor dengan menggunakan dua metode yang saling melengkapi. Metode pertama adalah dekomposisi pertumbuhan ekspor menjadi produk baru, produk menghilang, dan produk bertahan yang menyediakan informasi mengenai besarnya penciptaan dan pengurangan ekspor. Metode kedua adalah Indeks Feenstra atas varietas pertumbuhan ekspor netto yang menyediakan suatu indikasi pentingnya varietas baru dalam perdagangan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekspor non migas Indonesia lebih ditopang oleh tingginya pertumbuhan ekspor untuk produk-produk yang telah ada sebelumnya (margin intensif) daripada produk-produk baru (margin ekstensif), terutama selama pemulihan ekonomi di tahun 2010. Selain itu, kecilnya pertumbuhan varietas netto menunjukkan kurang berpengaruhnya margin ekstensif pada pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia. Berdasarkan wilayah, Asia masih menjadi tujuan ekspor utama yang paling tinggi menyumbang margin intensif maupun margin ekstensif. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah diharapkan dapat menjaga stabilitas produk-produk ekspor yang telah ada serta memelihara pasar produk ekspor di kawasan Asia. This study aims to determine the role of export growth components of the Indonesian non oil and gas which experienced significant growth in 2010 as well as to analyze the recent export structure. Basically, the study follows the paper of Amiti and Freud (2007) which examined the contribution of new varieties to export growth using two complementary methods. The first is a decomposition of export growth into new, disappearing, and existing varieties and offers more information on the magnitude of export creation and destruction. The second is the Feenstra Index of net export variety growth which provides an indication of the importance of new varieties in trade. The results of analysis showed that the growth of Indonesian export of non oil and gas was mainly driven by high export growth of existing products (the intensive margin) rather than in new varieties (the extensive margin), particularly during the economic recovery in 2010. In addition, the small net variety growth indicates the less importance of extensive margin on Indonesian export growth. According to the region, Asia is still a major export destination contributing for the highest intensive and extensive margin. Therefore, the government is expected to maintain the sustainability of the existing export products and the Asia market.

PEMASARAN PRODUK UKM MELALUI JARINGAN RETAIL BESAR Yudha Hadian Nur; Lukman Muslimin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3 No 2 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

The modern retail industry has grown rapidly in Indonesia for the last decade. The business growth on one side, it also caused tighter competition among suppliers in the industry in order to be able to access the modern retail networks, as well as the possibility of sacrificing the traditional retail, especially small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs). Although the government has created regulatory framework that is aimed to maintain profitable business for both traditional and modern market, and to increase the local business participation in modern retail through partnership program, the issued that has been occurred is that most traditional retailers have difficulties in expanding their market to modern retails. By using the descriptive analisys, the research is carried out to reqognize some terms and conditions that has been determined by modern retails to their become supplier, the factor analisys that are to the profit margin for both modern and traditional retailers. Meanwhile Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used produce draft of policies and procedures mechanisms in order enhance small medium enterprises access to modern market. Some recommendation from the research is increasing standard quality of local products and lessen the trading terms, specially that could bring disadvantage to the traditional retailers as stated in Presidential Decree No. 112/2007.

ANALISIS KEPENTINGAN SPECIAL SAFEGUARD MECHANISM INDONESIA DALAM NEGOSIASI PERTANIAN DI WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO) Adrian Darmawan Lubis; Firman Mutakin; Reni K. Arianti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Multilateral liberalization negotiations at the World Trade Organization is currently discussing the issue of protecting domestic producers from import surge through the scheme of Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM). SSM negotiations currently discussing the method of determining the value of SSM trigger. The results of this study found that the three-month Moving Average Method-by not using pro-rating-is the best method of determining SSM trigger value for Indonesia. However, data limitations led Indonesia to only be able to monitor changes in price for 5.67% of total agricultural products are traded. Therefore, it is necessary to establish institutions that are authorized to analyze the impact of changes in prices and imports, where the results will be used as a determinant when the SSM is implemented.

DAYA SAING REMPAH INDONESIA DI PASAR ASEAN PERIODE PRA DAN PASCA KRISIS EKONOMI GLOBAL Iwan Hermawan
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 2 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat daya saing ekspor rempah Indonesia di pasar ASEAN dan tingkat intensitas persaingan ekspor rempah dari negara-negara ASEAN. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), Index of Export Overlap (IEO), dan Index of Export Similarity (IES). Sedangkan data yang digunakan adalah data tahunan periode tahun 2005-2013. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa daya saing rempah Indonesia di pasar ASEAN mengalami perubahan antar periode pengamatan. Pada periode sebelum dan saat krisis ekonomi banyak komoditas rempah Indonesia berdaya saing rendah. Sedangkan pada saat pasca krisis ekonomi kondisi daya saing rempah tersebut mengalami peningkatan, khususnya vanili, kayu manis, jahe, kunyit, safron, timi, daun salam, daun kari, dan lada. Apabila dilihat dari sisi persaingan komoditas rempah negara-negara ASEAN di pasar Indonesia maka intensitasnya cenderung menurun. Lada dari Filipina, vanili dari Thailand, dan cengkeh dari Malaysia dapat menjadi kompetitor yang potensial di pasar rempah Indonesia karena daya saingnya meningkat di saat negara-negara lain menurun. Pemerintah Indonesia dapat melakukan upaya-upaya untuk mempertahankan dan meningkatkan potensi daya saing rempah melalui (a) teknik budidaya yang baik, (b) pengembangan industri hilir, (c) pemanfaatan bursa komoditas, dan (e) perbaikan fasilitasi perdagangan. The study aims at analyzing the level of export competitiveness of Indonesian spices and the intensity level of spices export competitiveness among ASEAN countries. This study used Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), Index of Export Overlap (IEO), and Index of Export Similarity (IES) approaches. The data used were time series during 2005-2013. The results showed that in the period before and during economic crises, most of Indonesian spice commodities are considered in the low level of competitiveness. However, that level has improved after the Indonesian economic crises, particularly for some spice commodities such as: vanilla, cinnamon, ginger, saffron, turmeric, thyme, bay leaves, and curry. Seen from the ASEAN countries’ spice commodities in Indonesian market, the level of competitiveness tends to decline in the intensity. Philippines pepper, Thai vanilla, and Malaysian clove may become the potential competitors in Indonesian market showing that those countries have increased the level of competitiveness whereas other ASEAN countries have decreased. Indonesian government should maintain and stimulate the potential spice competitiveness through: (a) an application of good cultivation technique, (b) a development of downstream industry, (c) a utilization of commodity exchange, and (e) an improvement of trade facilitation.

KETIDAKEFEKTIFAN KEBIJAKAN ANTI-DUMPING PRODUK IMPOR BAJA INDONESIA: SEBUAH ANALISIS AWAL Aditya Paramita Alhayat
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Meskipun Indonesia telah mengenakan tindakan anti-dumping terhadap beberapa jenis produk baja, namun impor produk tersebut masih meningkat. Salah satu kemungkinan penyebabnya adalah importasi melalui produk yang dimodifikasi secara tidak substansial atau melalui negara ketiga yang tidak dikenakan tindakan anti-dumping, yang dalam perdagangan internasional umum disebut sebagai praktik circumvention. Studi ini ditujukan untuk membuktikan bahwa circumvention mengakibatkan tindakan anti-dumping atas impor produk baja Indonesia tidak efektif dan untuk memberikan masukan berdasarkan praktik di negara lain supaya kebijakan anti-dumping Indonesia lebih efektif. Circumvention dianalisis dengan membandingkan pola perdagangan antara sebelum dan setelah pengenaan bea masuk anti-dumping (BMAD) menggunakan data sekunder dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) maupun Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya indikasi kuat bahwa circumvention mengkibatkan pengenaan tindakan anti-dumping impor produk baja di Indonesia menjadi tidak efektif. Oleh karena itu, sangat penting bagi Pemerintah Indonesia untuk segera melakukan penyempurnaan terhadap Peraturan Pemerintah No. 34/2011 tentang Tindakan Antidumping, Tindakan Imbalan, dan Tindakan Pengamanan Perdagangan dengan memasukkan klausul tindakan anti-circumvention yang setidaknya mencakup bentuk-bentuk dan prosedur tindakan, sebagaimana yang telah dilakukan beberapa negara seperti: AS, EU, Australia, dan India. Although Indonesia has imposed anti-dumping measures on several types of steel products, the import of steel products is still increasing. One possible cause is that imports are made by non-substantial modification of product or through a third country which is not subject to anti-dumping measures, which is generally referred as circumvention practice. This study is aimed to prove that circumvention made Indonesian anti-dumping actions on the steel products ineffective. This also study provides recommendation for a best practice for other countries so that Indonesia's anti-dumping policy can be more effective. Circumvention was analyzed by comparing trade patterns between before and after the imposition of anti-dumping duty using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). The results of the analysis indicate that circumvention became the reason why Indonesian anti-dumping measures on imported steel products are ineffective. Therefore, it is very important for the Government of Indonesia to immediately make amendments to the Government Regulation No. 34/2011 on Antidumping, Countervailing, and Safeguard Measures by adopting clauses of anti-circumvention. This can be done bycovering the forms/types and procedures of action, as has been implemented by several countries such as the US, EU, Australia, and India.

DAMPAK PENURUNAN EKSPOR TERHADAP PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA Tri Wibowo
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 7 No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak penurunan ekspor terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja dengan menggunakan analisis multiplier tenaga kerja dari tabel input-output. Hasil analisis secara sektoral menunjukkan bahwa pada saat terjadi penurunan ekspor di sektor industri sebesar 4,9% dan sektor pertambangan sebesar 9,6% akan berdampak terhadap hilangnya kesempatan kerja, meskipun terjadi kenaikan ekspor di sektor pertanian sebesar 8%. Pangsa kesempatan kerja di sektor pertanian pada periode 2006–2008 sebesar 41,2%, mengalami penurunan menjadi 38% pada periode 2009–2011. Kondisi ini mengindikasikan bahwa telah terjadi pergeseran tenaga kerja sektor pertanian ke non pertanian, khususnya industri dan jasa. Peningkatan teknologi di sektor pertanian akan meningkatkan produktivitas, daya tarik sektor tersebut, dan mengurangi tingginya migrasi tenaga kerja sektor pertanian ke sektor lain. This article aims to figure out the impact of decreasing export against employment opportunity by using labor multiplier analysis from input-output table. Sectoral analysis shows that decreasing export in industrial sector creates a large loss of employment opportunities not only in the respective sector, but also in other sectors such as agriculture and trade. From the period of 2011 to 2012, an 8% decreased in agricultural exports together with a 9.6% and a 4.9% decreased in mining and industrial sectors respectively, created unemployment. Labor market share in agricultural sector in the period of 2006-2008 was 41.2% and then it decreased to 38% in the period of 2009 - 2011. This indicates that there was a shift of labor from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors, especially industry and services. The advancement of technology in agricultural sector could increase the productivity, attractiveness, and reduce the shift of workers from agricultural sector to the others.

KINERJA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA DENGAN KENAIKAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA A. Elly Samah; Yati Nuryati
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 2 No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

World market prices of crude oil have three digits, which has reached US $ 105,07 per barrel in September 2008. Rising oil prices are affecting the economy in the world including Indonesia, because the oil not only determined by supply and demand but also influenced by political factors. In Indonesia, rising prices had a significant impact to increased APBN deficits in 2008 amounted to Rp 14.4 triliyun. In 2007, Indonesia's economic growth reached 6.3%, the inflation rate reached 6.5% and according to estimates quarter I-2008 inflation rate would be high due to the world price of crude oil is still high. This is possible because the increasing of crude oil price will trigger the price rising of oil for domestic industry. The results showed that any increase in the oil price from 10 industries potentially also increase inflation of about 0.2-0.3 which was achieved in 2-3 months later. LPEM UI research indicates that any increase in the price of oil by 16.7 will make inflation rate amounted to 0.98. Inflation rate was mainly triggered by a rate increase and sea transportation of 2.8-4.2 and then overtaken by increasing construction costs amounting to 2,04 as the impact of the oil price increment. Based on the results of the analysis of the rise in world oil prices in the long term can interfere with Indonesia's economic growth. This is because in the long term increasing of crude oil price is likely to oil price and there is a tendency to rises subsidies. The implications of this are rising of oil price to APBN because of the Government has to increase subsidies for oil in order to anticipate increasing of crude oil prices in the. This subsidies are automatically burden APBN regarding of increasing of subsidies.

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH TERHADAP USAHA TANI BERAS ORGANIK DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT Ulpah Jakiyah; Lukman M Baga; Netti Tinaprilla
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.34

Salah satu kebijakan Menteri Pertanian berkenaan dengan ekspor dan impor beras adalah peningkatan ekspor jenis beras khusus, seperti beras organik. Permintaan pasar global beras organik semakin meningkat, tetapi Indonesia menghadapi pesaing seperti Thailand dan Vietnam. Meskipun demikian, petani beras organik di Provinsi Jawa Barat menunjukkan kemampuan daya saingnya dengan keberhasilannya melakukan ekspor ke negara Amerika Serikat, Jerman, Malaysia, Singapura, Belanda, Italia, dan Dubai. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis daya saing beras organik, dan mengidentifikasi dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap kegiatan usaha tani beras organik. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa varietas beras organik memiliki daya saing yang cukup untuk ekspor, terlihat pada keunggulan kompetitif (Private Cost Ratio) dan komparatif (Domestic Resource Cost Ratio). Penerimaan secara finansial maupun sosial dapat memenuhi biaya input domestik. Keunggulan kompetitif dan komparatif melemah akibat dari adanya pengaruh biaya sertifikasi lahan pada biaya domestik dan biaya kemasan, sedangkan dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap input dan output menguntungkan petani. Kebijakan bersifat efektif namun belum efisien akibat belum adanya lembaga penyediaan input seperti pupuk dan benih organik. One of the agriculture minister policies related to rice exports and imports is the increased number of certain type of rice export such as organic rice.The global demand of organic rice market has been increasing but Indonesia is facing competitors, such as Thailand and Vietnam. Nevertheless, organic rice farmers in west java province are showing their competitive capability by exporting to a United States, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, The netherlands, Italy, and Dubai. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness of organic rice, and identify the impacts in government policy for the organic rice farming.The result shows that some varieties of organic rice have adequate export competitiveness, seen from the competitive advantage (private cost ratio) and the comparative advantage (domestic cost ratio) which are positive. The analysis method used was Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM). The financial and social revenue could cover the input of domestic cost. The competitive and comparative advantages were weakened as a result of the influence of land certification in the domestic and packaging cost, whereas the impact of government policy to input and output is profitable for farmers. The policy is effective but has not been efficient due to lack of input providers such as fertilizer and organic seeds.

KAJIAN KEMITRAAN USAHA PERDAGANGAN ANTARA RITEL MODERN DENGAN PEMASOK Lukman Muslimin; Yati Nuryati
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1 No 3 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Kemitraan usaha di dalam PP No 44/1997 adalah kerjasama usaha antara usaha kecil dengan usaha Menengah dan atau dengan Usaha Besar disertai Pembinaan dan Pengembangan olehUsaha Menengah dan atau Usaha Besar dengan menengah dan atau Usaha Besar dengan memperhatikan prinsip saling memerlukan saling memperkuat dan saling menguntungkan.Dalam prateknya ritel modern memberlakukan berbagai macam ketentuan dan syarat perdagangan (trading terms) yang menimbulkan pro kontra dandiangggap merugikan pemasok terutama pemasok UKM. Berbagai ketentuan dan trading terms yang diberlakukan dewasa ini sehinggga tercatat sekitar 35 bentuk, antara lain adanya listing fee, penalty service level, promotion discount dan biaya pasok lainnya yang dapat memberatkan pemasok dan menguntungkan ritel modrn. Kenyataan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa di satu sisi, ritel modern dapat bersaing dengan harga yang lebih rendah dari ritel tradisiopnal, namundi sisi lain justru dapat menekan margin pemasok.Analisa biaya, menunjukkan bahwa harga beli yang dibayar konsumen (consumer buying price) ke ritel modern lebih rendah dibandingakan ritel tradisional, tetapi keuntungan ritel modern lebih besar karena diperoleh dari potongan trading termd yang terkadang di dalam harga beli ritel modern ( retailer buying price)) dari pemasok . Jangka pendek konsumen diuntungkan, efeknya retailer biasa tidak laku, margin pemasok semakin tipis. Pada giliran selanjutnya , pemasok , prodosen harus menaikan harga retailer buying price, krena harus meminimalisir jual rugi ke Hypermaket dan pada ujung terakhir konsumen yang dirugikan.Kondisi tersebut menunjukaknnbahwa terjadi dominant bayer power . dalam kondisi demikian , praktek traiding terms dapat dirterima apabila dengan alas an efisiensi dan penguatan pasar ; namun harus diatasi oleh pemerintah apabila terjadi eksploitasi, atau abuse buyer power, untuk itu penelitian ini mengalisis struktur pasar, prilaku pasar dan kinerja pasarbserta cost and benefit untuk mengungkapkan mengapa pratek trading terms berjalan tanpa kendali dan bagaimana kemitraan usaha perdagangan yang efisien antara ritel modern dengan pemasok UKM dapat berjalan.

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