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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan

bilp
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Published by Kementerian Perdagangan

ISSN : 19799187 EISSN : 25282751 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.

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Articles 209 Documents

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FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA Aziz Muslim
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 8 No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berbentuk time series, diolah dan dianalisis dengan metode estimasi dan kointegrasi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia dalam jangka pendek adalah impor kedelai sebelumnya, harga kedelai USA, harga minyak kedelai Argentina, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Dalam jangka panjang faktor yang berpengaruh adalah harga minyak kedelai Argentina, PDB Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Kajian ini merekomendasikan bahwa mekanisme pengamanan stok kedelai maupun minyak kedelai bermanfaat untuk menjaga ketersediaan pangan dalam negeri. Peran aktif pemerintah dalam mengamankan stok kedelai nasional serta pengumpulan data-data tentang impor kedelai merupakan tuntutan yang mendesak. Untuk menjaga kestabilan harga dan pasokan kedelai dalam negeri perlu ada upaya untuk mendiversifikasi negara asal impor. The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect Indonesia’s imports of soybean. The study utilized time series secondary data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis. The results reveal that in the short run Indonesia’s import of soybean are influenced by Indonesia's soybean imports in the previous year, price of USA’s soybean, Argentina’s soybean oil price, and the Rupiah exchange rate. In the long run Indonesia’s imports of soybean are influenced by Argentina’s soybean oil, Indonesia GDP, and the Rupiah exchange rate. This study recommends that mechanism to maintain soybean stocks demanded is useful for food security.Therefore Government role is important in providing the accurate data on soybean stock, and diversification of the country of origin is crucial to maintain price stability and supply continuity in the country

THE IMPACT OF WORLD CPO PRICE CHANGE TOWARDS PRICES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA Wisnu Winardi; Hadi Susanto; Kadim Martana
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Paper ini menganalisis dampak perubahan harga CPO dunia terhadap harga-harga, aktivitas ekonomi, dan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga di Indonesia dengan pendekatan model CGE. Model pertama mengasumsikan Indonesia tidak mampu memengaruhi harga, sedangkan model kedua mengasumsikan Indonesia mampu memengaruhi harga. Data utama yang digunakan bersumber dari Tabel Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2008. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa apabila Indonesia berperan sebagai penerima harga, peningkatan harga CPO dunia diperkirakan akan berdampak pada penguatan nilai tukar, penurunan tingkat harga, dan meningkatkan aktivitas ekonomi, namun sedikit mengurangi kemerataan distribusi pendapatan. Di sisi lain, penurunan harga CPO dunia akan memberikan dampak yang sebaliknya. Apabila Indonesia dapat berperan memengaruhi harga, perubahan harga CPO dunia diperkirakan akan berdampak sama dengan bila Indonesia tidak dapat memengaruhi harga, namun dengan nilai perubahan yang relatif lebih kecil. Hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa Indonesia sebaiknya dapat berperan sebagai penerima harga ketika harga CPO dunia bertendensi meningkat dan berperan memengahuhi harga ketika harga CPO dunia bertendensi turun. This paper analyzes the impact of world CPO change price towards prices, economic activities, and household income distribution using CGE Models. The first model assumes that Indonesia is a price taker, while the second model assumes that Indonesia could influence the price. The main data were taken from Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix 2008. The simulation results suggest that if Indonesia takes the role as a price taker, an increase in world CPO price will affect exchange rate, decrease prices, and improve economic activities, but it slightly worsened household income distribution. On the other hand, a decrease in world CPO price will bring about the opposite impacts respectively. Conversely, if Indonesia takes the role as a main price influencer, world CPO price change will lead to a similar result with less magnitude impacts. These findings suggest that Indonesia should be able to take the role as a price taker when world CPO price is increasing and as a main price influencer when world CPO price is decreasing.

PENERAPAN STANDAR EKSPOR GURITA DAN IKAN TERI PERUSAHAAN PERIKANAN DI KENDARI1 Nurlia Listiani
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 7 No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Tulisan ini bertujuan mengkaji penerapan standar yang dilakukan oleh para pelaku usaha perikanan baik pemerintah ataupun pengusaha khususnya gurita dan ikan teri di kota Kendari. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menggunakan model Performance, Vision, dan Strategy (PVS) dan Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat (SWOT). Data berasal dari observasi langsung dan wawancara mendalam menggunakan kuesioner yang disesuaikan dengan CODEX Alimentarius. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa, pertama secara teknis perusahaan wajib menerapkan Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) untuk menjamin keamanan produk dan memenuhi standar lain yang diminta oleh importir. Kedua, koordinasi antara pemerintah pusat, daerah dan swasta terjalin cukup baik. Ketiga, pihak perusahaan pengolahan ikan relatif sudah cukup dapat memenuhi standar yang diminta oleh pasar tujuan ekspor, meskipun dari sisi kemudahan untuk melakukan ekspor langsung dari Kendari masih terbatas. Keempat, dari sisi SDM di beberapa sampel perusahaan pengolahan ikan di Kendari sudah cukup baik karena adanya pelatihan terkait dengan standar yang dimiliki perusahaan, tapi dari sisi SDM laboratorium penguji milik Pemda masih relatif kurang. This paper analyzes the implementation of fisheries standards for octopus and anchovy in Kendari, Southeast Sulawesi by the government and the private sector. It uses qualitative and quantitative analysis based on Performance, Vision, and Strategy (PVS) and Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat (SWOT) analyses. The study uses data from observations and in-depth interviews using questionnaires based on CODEX Alimentarius to evaluate applied standards and their implementation. This study finds that companies are capable of implementing Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) to ensure the safety of the product as well as other standards required by importers. Fisheries companies in Kendari generally have capable human resources for implementing standards because they have employee training and development programs. On the other hand, despite good coordination among the central and regional governments and the private sector, the only regional laboratory with the competence to test food has problems. Nevertheless, fisheries companies’ are generally able to meet the standards required by the export market.

KAJIAN DAMPAK EKONOMI KEBERADAAN HYPERMARKET TERHADAP RITEL/PASAR TRADISIONAL Ninuk Rahayuningrum; Tjahya Widayanti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 2 No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Traditional retail market share tendencies to decline, along with the increasingly growing number of modern retail business and capitalization. Domination of the market amounted to one-third to half of them by modern retail is very prone to bring the potential cost of the economic, social, and political stature. In Indonesia, the market share of traditional markets and business performance declines, while at the same time modern markets has increased. However, quantitatively, not proven the existence of real influence. More traditional markets decline caused by internal factors are real. More traditional markets decline caused by internal factors which resulted in a lack of competitiveness in the field of modern markets, which are related to performance: assets, turnover, turnover of merchandise, and margin rates. The possession of wealth (assets) stagnant. Secondary data analysis suggests that any amount of additional modern market (grocery store) yet are lowering the number of traditional markets (stores or stalls). This shows that the market for modern and traditional markets are equally evolved and are 'complementyary' of each other. Results of the study indicate that the contribution to the GDP of non oil and gas more traditional markets (stores or stalls) compared to modern market (grocery store). However, the opposite happens, the condition that the modern market (supermarket) in the territory of the province, in this case urban, had a greater contribution towards the recipient APBD compared to city or regency. In contrast, the traditional market of non economic advantages from the point of view of macro economic interests, namely the provision of business opportunity selection, provision of employment, output and contributions, although these choices may conflict with the interests of the local Government to improve the acquisition of PAD.

PROYEKSI EKSPOR DAN IMPOR INDONESIA: SUATU PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE Aditya Paramita Alhayat; Azis Muslim
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 10 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v10i1.32

Proyeksi ekspor dan impor Indonesia memiliki urgensi penting sebagai salah satu acuan untuk merumuskan target pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun proyeksi ekspor dan impor nasional periode 2015-2019 yang dilihat berdasarkan sektor migas dan non migas. Dengan mempertimbangkan berbagai aspek ekonomi eksternal, Vector Autoregression (VAR) digunakan untuk memberikan perkiraan besaran petumbuhan ekspor dan impor di masa mendatang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa di masa datang pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia masih dipengaruhi oleh Produk Domestik Bruto negara-negara mitra utama sedangkan impor lebih dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor ekonomi domestik. Hasil proyeksi VAR menunjukkan bahwa ekspor nasional pada 2015 turun sebesar 10,65% dan meningkat sebesar 1,06% di tahun 2019, sedangkan impor nasional tahun 2015 turun sebesar 10,02% dan meningkat sebesar 12,11% di tahun 2019. Apabila pemerintah ingin menetapkan target ekspor lebih tinggi dari angka tersebut, maka usaha peningkatan ekspor harus ditopang dengan perbaikan sisi penawaran, dan target impor yang lebih rendah dapat dicapai dengan pengetatan konsumsi migas. Export and import projection is one of the important activities to determine the target of economic growth in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (NMTDP). This study aims to set out the projections of national exports and imports during 2015-2019 according to oil and non-oil sectors. By considering some external factors, Vector Autoregression (VAR) is utilized to forecast the future growth of export and import. The results showed that the future growth of Indonesia’s export was determined by Gross Domestic Product of trading partners, while the Indonesia’s import was influenced by domestic economic factors. The national export in 2015 was projected to decline by 10.65% and to increase by 1.06% in 2019, while the national import was projected to decline by 10.02% in 2015 and increase by 12.11% in 2019. If the government intends to set the export target higher than the projection, the improvement on the supply side must be considered. Moreover, the lower import target could be achieved by tightening the oil and gas consumption.

ANALISIS EFISIENSI SISTEM TATA NIAGA GULA DI INDONESIA Ninuk Rahayu Ningrum; Ernawati Munadi; Tjahya Widayanti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1 No 3 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Debate on Indonesia’s sugar polisy was stimulated by the sharp increase in the sugar retail price after the implementation of import regulatory policy regim based on the Trade and Industrial Ministry Decree No. 643/MPP/Kep/9/2002.23 September 2002 revised with the Trade and Industrial Ministry Decree No. 527/MPP/Kep/9/2004/and followed by Ministry of Trade Decree No. 19/M-DAG/PER/4/2006 tanggal 19 April 2006.UsIng the annual data for the period of 1998-2004,this study examines the “reasonable sugar retail price “in Indonesia using two approaches i.e (1) import parity and (2) production cost and distribution ; and based on those reasonable sugar retail prices, this study try to analize the efficiency of the “system tataniaga gula “in Indonesia.The results show that because of the government policy intervension, sugar retail price paid by the sugar cosumer in Indonesia is higher than if no government intervention ( free Trade). It is about 43.07 % and 3.43.% higher based on the first and second approach, respectively, moreover , due to the various, government policies related to tariff and import regulation, cosumer lost for about Rp. 3.8 – Rp 6.2 Trillion a year, but producer get benefit for about Rp.3.2 – Rp 5.2 Trilion ayear. Hence, The dead weight loss due to the”system tataniaga gula “is about Rp. 06- 10 trillion a year.

DAMPAK LIBERALISASI WTO TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN BERAS DAN GULA Adrian D. Lubis; Reni K. Arianti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

This paper goals are to study impact of trade liberalization and Indonesia capability to maintain national food security for rice and sugar. This study that uses multiregression analysis with dummy variabels and GTAP found that import of rice and sugar increase due are to lack of capability to fulfill national consumption. Therefore, Indonesia must increase its rice and sugar productivity to fulfill national food security in liberalization regime.

KELANGKAAN BAHAN BAKU UNTUK INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN UDANG DI JAWA TIMUR Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3 No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Indonesia is one of a main shrimp producers in the world. But in last two years, some shrimp industries, especialy in East Java is complained to raw material insufficiency, and continually require government to give permission to import. However, the government does not allow shrimp import to prevent the spread of white sport syndrome virus in Indonesia. The study found that the raw material scarcity is only happens in East Java. It also predct that Indonesia’s shrimp supply will increase in the future. The abundance of shrimp supply will make Indonesia is likely donot need shrimp import. However, some recomendation is needed for government to issue special policy in supply continuing in East Java.

PERKEMBANGAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 8 No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan faktor yang mempengaruhinya selama periode Kuartal I tahun 2006 sampai dengan Kuartal II tahun 2013 menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Neraca perdagangan Indonesia menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif dalam kurun waktu 2006-2011, dan pertumbuhan negatif selama periode 2012-2013. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, konsumsi domestik dan nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia, sedangkan variabel Investasi Asing Langsung dan PDB Negara lain berpengaruh positif. Nilai error correction model yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya koreksi dari pergerakan variabel pada keseimbangan jangka panjang. Hal ini mengindikasikan pentingnya pemerintah untuk mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia, antara lain menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, mengendalikan konsumsi masyarat terhadap barang impor, dan menarik Foreign Direct Investment. This paper examines the development of Indonesia’s trade balance and its determinant factors from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The development of trade balance from the year 2006-2011 has shown a positive trend. However between the year 2012 and 2013, the trade balance has been negative.The analysis shows that both in the short run and the long run,the domestic consumption and Real Exchage Rate have negative and significant influence on Indonesia’s trade balance. Whilst Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign GDP have positive effect. The coefficient of Error Correction Model is negative and significant implying that there is correction movement from those variabels in the long run. This study suggests that the Government should make the right policy to overcome the deficit of trade balance by maintaining including exchange rate stability,and household consumption of imported goods as well as by attracting Foreign Direct Investment.

ANALISIS STRUKTUR DAN POTENSI PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA-TURKI Aditya Paramitha Alhayat
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

since distance is considered as a barrier to trade in the contemporary world, it is perceive that all countries become important markets for exporters. For Indonesia, turkey is considered as high potential market as well as a gateway of trade and investment with its proximity to major markets such as europe, middle east and Caucasus. Therefore, this paper aims to define complementary trade structure, relations, and intensity between Indonesia and Turkey. It also identifies the sectors that have comparative advantage and potential for Indonesian products in the turkish market.this study shows that the level of trade complementarity between Indonesia and turkey are high and there is high intra-industry trade on some products. this is an important indication that stangthening trade relations may have a positive impact for both countries in the future because of mutual cooperation. In addition, indicative potential trade provides additional information about Indonesia’s export products that can be developed further related to a high demand in turkey

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