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Cendekia Niaga
ISSN : 25483137     EISSN : 25483145     DOI : -
Cendekia Niaga receives manuscripts with some topics/issues of trade and trade-related issues including Domestic Trade and Consumer Protection, International Trade and Trade Remedies, Trade-related human resources competency development, and Small Medium Enterprises.
Articles 195 Documents
Within the Recent Indonesia Global Trade and Future Predictions: Data Analytic Approach Priambodo, Aln Pujo
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

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Abstract

International trade is directly calculated within Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The trade surplus is one of the pillars that is expected to have a significant impact on economic growth. In Indonesia, the trade balance has shown a surplus for the past few years, as indicated by the large exports compared to imports. However, its impact on economic growth is still debated. Based on export-import data from 2003 to 2023 and using a data analysis approach, this study found that there have been no changes in export and import commodities over years. The descriptive approach shows that raw materials are still dominated the exports, and Indonesia also continues to depend on other manufactured goods from international market. In addition, the Granger Causality approach shows a lag effect or delay from exports to economic growth. Although, optimism about the trade balance remains maintained, resulting from the Exponential Smoothing projection model for exports and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for imports, Indonesia still has challenges to overcome. Some steps that can be taken include strengthening domestic industrialization that prioritizes added value, downstreaming policies, adjustments to import and export tariffs, trade cooperation in ASEAN, regional economic integration, and infrastructure investment and strengthening human resources.
Faktor-faktor yang Berkontribusi terhadap Kepemilikan Sertifikasi Usaha di Kalangan Peserta Pelatihan UMKM di Jawa Timur Aminudin, Muhammad Sulton
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of the education of business owner, type of business, business turnover, and number of employees on the ownership of a Business Identification Number (NIB) in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) of East Java Province. Data gathered from 1,041 MSMEs and the binary logistik regression method, that found simultaneously the variabels of education, type of business, and turnover had a significant effect on NIB ownership, while the number of employees was not significant either simultaneously or per category. Specifically, education had a collective effect but there was no particular level of education that individually significantly increased the chances of having a NIB. The type of business was the most consistent factor: MSMEs in the handicraft, fashion, and food/beverage sectors had a significantly higher chance of having a NIB than other sectors. Turnover had a significant effect simultaneously, but no particular turnover category was found to individually increase the chances of having a NIB. The number of employees did not show a significant effect on NIB ownership, either simultaneously or in each category. This finding confirms that the strategy of increasing business legality through NIB in MSMEs is more effective if it is focused on education and mentoring of potential business sectors, not solely based on turnover or number of employees. This study provides policy implications so that government intervention is more directed at strengthening access to information, legal assistance, and business sectors that empirically need more formal legality.
Kebijakan Hilirisasi dalam Rangka Pemanfaatan Perjanjian Kerjasama Internasional Fitria Yuliani; Hari Hermawan; Esty Asriyana Suryana
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
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Abstract

Kebijakan hilirisasi merupakan salah satu strategi utama pemerintah Indonesia untuk meningkatkan nilai tambah produk pertanian, mengurangi ketergantungan pada ekspor bahan mentah, serta memperkuat daya saing industri nasional. Studi ini menganalisis implementasi kebijakan hilirisasi dalam sektor pertanian, khususnya dalam konteks pemanfaatan perjanjian kerja sama internasional seperti ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) dan Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Meskipun hilirisasi telah menunjukkan dampak positif terhadap peningkatan ekspor produk olahan dan penyerapan tenaga kerja, implementasinya masih menghadapi berbagai tantangan. Beberapa kendala utama meliputi keterbatasan infrastruktur pengolahan, standar mutu dan sertifikasi yang ketat di pasar ekspor, akses pembiayaan yang terbatas bagi pelaku usaha, serta ketidakkonsistenan regulasi domestik. Selain itu, persaingan global dan hambatan non-tarif di negara tujuan ekspor juga menjadi faktor yang mempengaruhi efektivitas kebijakan ini. Untuk mengoptimalkan manfaat hilirisasi, diperlukan strategi yang terintegrasi, termasuk peningkatan investasi di sektor pengolahan, penguatan kerja sama internasional untuk alih teknologi, serta pengembangan ekosistem industri yang berkelanjutan. Dengan langkah-langkah tersebut, hilirisasi sektor pertanian diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi lebih besar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional dan ketahanan pangan
Revisiting The Impact of Trade Openness and FDI on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from ASEAN-China FTA Countries Sumiyati, Tatik
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

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Abstract

The rise of the economy driven by free trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) has implications for environmental degradation, chiefly due to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that may induce the greenhouse effect and subsequently contribute to climate change. Climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is presently a worldwide problem and is one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Nonetheless, the correlation between trade openness and FDI inflows regarding CO2 emissions remains inconclusive. This study aims to fill this research gap by revisiting the effect of trade openness and FDI on CO2 emissions using panel data from ASEAN countries from 1990 to 2023, using a fixed effects panel regression approach. The findings indicate that trade openness can raise CO2 emissions, and the impact has grown since the introduction of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Policymakers can mitigate the negative effects of trade on carbon emissions by implementing comprehensive carbon pricing mechanisms, promoting green trade, improving FDI regulatory frameworks, fostering regional cooperation, and establishing robust monitoring systems.
Dampak Penolakan Produk Ekspor Indonesia terhadap Indikator Perekonomian dan Perdagangan Ningsih, Rahayu; Epianingsih, Yuliana
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

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Abstract

Indonesia is the world's fourth-largest exporter of instant noodles, following South Korea, China, and Thailand, with a positive growth trend of 9.47% over the past five years (BPS, 2024). However, despite this growth, in 2022, Indonesian instant noodle products were recalled in several export destination countries due to contamination with ethylene oxide (EtO) and 2-chloroethanol (2-CE). This issue has the potential to reduce market access and hinder Indonesia’s export performance in the future, not only for instant noodles but also for processed food products in general. In this case, the Recursive Dynamics Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model was constructed to analyze the trade impact of the product recall on Indonesia's export performance. Under the assumption of a 9% export decline in the Malaysian market, the results indicate a GDP reduction of -0.003%, a total export volume decrease of -0.006%, and a trade balance decline of USD -0.0014 million. From a consumer protection perspective, if EtO and 2-CE contamination is not mitigated, it will not only affect market access abroad but also pose risks to consumer safety domestically, particularly concerning food safety issues. Long-term consumption of food contaminated with EtO and 2-CE can lead to serious health problems. Considering the recommendations from the analysis, Government has proposed that EtO and 2-CE be included in the priority list of residues to be harmonized within the Codex framework.
Tren Belt and Road Initiative dalam Kebijakan Persaingan Perdagangan Internasional Kawasan Asia Alfarizi, Muhammad; Rosdiana Noer, Lissa
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

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Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative is a global economic strategy introduced by China in 2013 to enhance infrastructure connectivity, trade, and investment across Asia. This study aims to analyze research trends related to Belt and Road Initiative within the context of international trade competition policies in Asia using a bibliometric and systematic literature review (SLR) approach. Data were obtained from the Scopus database covering the period from 2008 to 2024 and analyzed using PRISMA methodology and software tools such as Biblioshiny and VOSviewer. The findings indicate that Belt and Road Initiative has accelerated economic integration through infrastructure investment and trade digitalization while also posing challenges such as China's economic dominance and the dependency of participating countries. Keyword co-occurrence analysis reveals that trade competition policies are increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors, supply chain efficiency, and environmental sustainability. This study highlights the need for adaptive policies to balance economic growth and fair competition in Asia. The implications for Indonesia include strengthening investment oversight, optimizing the role of the Indonesia Competition Commission (KPPU), and diversifying trade partnerships to enhance global competitiveness and reduce economic dependence on China.
The Role of Brand Storytelling, Accessibility, and Ticket Pricing in Driving Leisure Intentions and Recreational Decisions: A Study of Dunia Fantasi (Dufan), Jakarta Favorita, Danti; Eddyono, Fauziah
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
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Abstract

Urban recreational destinations face increasing competition, requiring theme park managers to understand key drivers of consumer behavior. This study investigates the influence of brand storytelling, accessibility, and ticket pricing on recreational interest and recreation decisions at Dunia Fantasi (Dufan) Jakarta, targeting corporate workers under 45. An online survey collected data from 250 respondents, analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Findings reveal that brand storytelling, accessibility, and ticket pricing significantly affect recreational interest, which in turn strongly influences recreation decisions and functions as a primary mediator. Direct effects of accessibility and ticket pricing on recreation decisions are not significant. The study underscores the need to integrate emotional, functional, and financial dimensions in theme park marketing, emphasizing authentic brand narratives, ease of access, and value-based pricing. These strategies enhance urban amusement park competitiveness by fostering visitor engagement and informed decision-making.
Determinants of Indonesia’s Coffee Export Value: Production, International Prices, and Exchange Rate Bima Hardi; Mimi Arimbi; Muhammad Safrizal
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52391/jcn.v10i1.1040

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of Indonesia’s coffee export value by assessing the effects of coffee production, international coffee prices, and the rupiah/US dollar exchange rate. Using monthly secondary data from 2021 to 2025 obtained from Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, and the International Coffee Organization, this study applies an Error Correction Model (ECM) to distinguish short-run dynamics from long-run equilibrium relationships. The results show that, in the long run, international coffee prices and the rupiah/US dollar exchange rate have positive and significant effects on Indonesia’s coffee export value, while coffee production shows a positive but statistically insignificant effect at the 5 percent level. In the short run, exchange rate movements have a significant negative effect, whereas changes in production and international coffee prices are not significant. The negative and significant error correction term confirms the existence of a valid adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium. These findings indicate that Indonesia’s coffee export performance is shaped not only by production capacity but also by global price incentives, exchange rate movements, and market adjustment processes. Policy efforts should therefore prioritize product quality, certification, downstream processing, market diversification, logistics efficiency, and exchange rate stability to strengthen the competitiveness and sustainability of Indonesian coffee exports.
Do Export Promotion Agencies Matter? Evidence from Indonesia’s Export to Main and Non-Traditional Markets Budiono Rahmat
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52391/jcn.v10i1.1043

Abstract

Indonesia’s economic growth faces persistent challenges, particularly due to the slowdown in export growth caused by commodity price volatility, global trade tensions, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, Indonesia has utilized Export Promotion Agencies (EPAs) as part of its export-led growth strategy. This study examines the effectiveness of EPAs in promoting Indonesia’s agricultural and manufacturing exports, particularly in main and non-traditional export markets. Using a panel dataset covering 38 partner countries over the period 2000–2021, the study employs a gravity model estimated through the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) approach. The analysis incorporates several control variables, including Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), partner-country GDP, real exchange rates, geographical distance, and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). The findings indicate that EPAs generally exert a positive and statistically significant effect on Indonesia’s exports, although the magnitude of the effects varies across sectors and market groups. The strongest EPA effects are observed in agricultural exports to main markets and manufacturing exports to non-traditional markets. Meanwhile, the effects of FTAs appear relatively limited and less consistent across model specifications, suggesting that institutional export promotion mechanisms may play a more direct role in facilitating market access and reducing informational barriers. Consistent with the gravity model framework, partner-country GDP positively affects exports, whereas geographical distance negatively influences trade flows. Overall, the results highlight the importance of EPAs as strategic instruments for export diversification and market expansion, particularly in emerging and less-established export markets. The study also emphasizes the need for more targeted export promotion policies tailored to sectoral characteristics and destination-market conditions.
Rantai Nilai Global Manufaktur Tiongkok Pasca-COVID-19: Analisis Input-Output dan Implikasi Strategis bagi Indonesia Fadhillah Akbar Salam; Reza Triarda
Cendekia Niaga Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Cendekia Niaga : Trade and Development Studies
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kompetensi Aparatur Perdagangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52391/jcn.v10i1.1053

Abstract

The global supply chain is a crucial aspect of the dynamics of the global value chain within the manufacturing sector. China is known as the "world's factory" due to its ability to integrate inputs from around the world to produce high-value export products. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted various economies and creating difficulties and shifts in production networks. Based on this, the research question is, "How has the input-output structure of the global value chain changed in China's manufacturing sector post-COVID-19; and its relationship to trade/manufacturing in Indonesia" This research uses a descriptive qualitative method with an input-output analysis approach within the global value chain (GVC) framework to understand how China's manufacturing sector has undergone structural changes post-COVID-19, and its impact and strategic recommendations for Indonesia. The discussion concludes that post-pandemic, starting in 2023, China has faced shifts in its global supply chain due to geopolitical factors, strict regulations, and global companies' efforts to diversify production to other countries. China's supply chain has demonstrated resilience by continuing to innovate technologically and diversify internally, while remaining a key player in the production of certain goods. China is seeking to strengthen its dominance in high-value industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and solar energy, not just mass manufacturing. This shift is more about "de-risking" than "decoupling" from China, as many supply chains still rely on raw materials or components from China. Indonesia's manufacturing linkage with China's global value chain post-pandemic takes the form of dependence on upstream inputs (raw materials and capital goods). Indonesia positions itself as a strategic partner for China by providing raw materials through forward linkages (increased downstreaming) and relying on Chinese raw material/capital inputs through backward linkages.Based on the situation in 2026, the strategic recommendations for Indonesian Manufacturing to overcome the challenges are: The main strategy is to "not separate itself from trade relations with China", but rather "change its position" from being just an upstream raw material importer to a balanced production partner by increasing the capacity of the domestic upstream and downstream industries.

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