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Journal of Mathematics UNP
Published by Universitas Negeri Padang
ISSN : 23551658     EISSN : 28073460     DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/unpjomath.v7i3.12564
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics
Journal of Mathematics UNP is a journal to publish article from student researches in UNP Mathematics study program, and we also kindly accept other article from outside of our study program related to Mathematics: consists of publication in Algebra, Analysis, Combinatoric, Geometry, Differential Equations, Graph and/or Mixed Mathematics Applications: consists of publication in Application of Differential Equations, Mathematics Modelling, Mathematics Physics, Mathematics Biology, Financial Mathematics, Application of Graph and Combinatorics, Optimal Control, Operation Research, and/ or Mixed Statistics: consists of publication on Development and/ or Application of statistics in various aspects.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika (Lain-Lain)
Articles 9 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP" : 9 Documents clear
Peramalan Hasil Produksi Padi di Kota Pariaman Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Khairani, Yasyfin Ikrima; Helma, Helma; Winanda, Rara Sandhy
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.16934

Abstract

Rice is the main commodity that supports national food security and fulfills the consumption needs of most of the Indonesian population. Rice production faces many persistent problems, such as yield fluctuations, pest and disease attacks, and environmental changes. One example is the conversion of agricultural areas into residential and industrial areas, which causes rice production to decline. The purpose of this research is to use the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) approach to develop a forecasting model of Pariaman City’s rice production and forecast the results for 2024 in a monthly period. This applied research uses secondary data obtained from the official website of the Pariaman City Statistics Agency. The best forecasting model results are achieved with the ARMA (1,2) model which produces the smallest MSE value of 96.6965. The model form is $$Y_t = 1.00048Y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t + 0.443\varepsilon_{t-1} + 0.493\varepsilon_{t-2}$$.
PENYELESAIAN PERSAMAAN NON LINEAR MENGGUNAKAN METODE ITERASI TIGA LANGKAH Huang, Nafisha Hurinia; Rizal, Yusmet
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17052

Abstract

The Three-Step Iterative Method is a multistep approach designed to determine the roots of complex non-linear equations. Developed using Taylor Series, Quadratic Equations, and Hermite Interpolation, this method provides an alternative for solving complicated equations numerically and analytically. This study aims to examine the formulation of the method, design an algorithm in a flowchart, and analyze its convergence order. The research adopts a literature review methodology by conducting an in-depth analysis of relevant references. The algorithm's implementation is tested through computer programming to evaluate its numerical effectiveness. The results demonstrate that the method achieves high-order convergence, enabling faster solutions with minimal error. In conclusion, the Three-Step Iterative Method is an efficient and accurate solution for resolving complex non-linear equations.
Implementasi Fuzzy Time Series Logika Singh Untuk peramalan Nilai Ekspor Nilam di Indonesia Putri, Rahmadita Amalia; Subhan, Muhammad
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17047

Abstract

Patchouli is used as one of the mixtures of cosmetic products, food industry, paint making, aromatherapy, and various other industrial needs and is needed by various types of industries in various countries. Due to the high world demand for patchouli, a prediction is made to anticipate uncertainty so that an estimate is obtained that is close to the actual situation. The method that can be used is the Singh logic fuzzy time series method. This research is an applied research, where the data taken is the data on the value of patchouli exports in Indonesia in the period January 2020 to July 2024. The results of forecasting the value of patchouli export data in Indonesia with this method are then measured for accuracy using MAPE. From the Singh logic fuzzy time series forecasting method, the MAPE obtained was 7,215%. Based on the MAPE, forecasting export value in Indonesia with Singh's fuzzy time series logic has a very good level of accuracy. For the following period, the export value of patchouli is projected to be US$ 29,638,657.15 for August 2024, US$ 28.212.795,11 for September 2024, and US$ 28.277.533,23 for October 2024. The Predicted value is categorized qith a very high export value of patchouli.
Implementasi Logika Fuzzy Mamdani untuk Menentukan Tingkat Kecemasan Akademik Dalam Penulisan Skripsi Mahasiswa Departemen Matematika Universitas Negeri Padang Zulmi, Naurah Dwi
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17100

Abstract

Kecemasan adalah kondisi psikologis seseorang yang dipenuhi rasa takut, gelisah dan khawatir terhadap hal yang belum pasti akan terjadi. Mahasiswa dalam menyusun skripsi dapat mengalami kecemasan yang disebabkan oleh beberapa hal seperti tekanan akademik, tuntutan tugas, kekhawatiran akan masa depan, gangguan tidur atau masalah finansial. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan gambaran tingkat kecemasan dalam penulisan skripsi pada mahasiswa Departemen Matematika Universitas Negeri Padang angkatan 2018-2020. Dalam penelitian ini digunakan metode Fuzzy Mamdani yang dipilih karena mampu memberikan penilaian yang lebih fleksibel dengan mengubah nilai crisp menjadi nilai linguistik dan hasil ouput yang diberikan berupa nilai crisp. Penerapan Fuzzy Mamdani dirancang berdasarkan konsultasi dengan pakar di bidang psikologi. Indikator yang digunakan adalah tiga variabel, yaitu fisiologis, kognitif, dan emosional masing masing dengan gejalanya, kemudian tingkat kecemasan diklasifikasikan ke dalam tiga kategori yaitu rendah, sedang, dan tinggi. Data diperoleh melalui kuesioner dengan melibatkan 50 responden yang merupakan mahasiswa Departemen Matematika, kemudian dianalisis menggunakan metode fuzzy Mamdani. Data kecemasan didapatkan melalui kuesioner TMAS (Taylor Manifest Anxiety Scale). Penelitian ini memperoleh hasil bahwa sebanyak 30 orang (60%) mengalami kecemasan rendah, 12 orang (22%) mengalami kecemasan sedang dan 8 orang (18%) mengalami kecemasan tinggi. Kemudian hasil tingkat kecemasan menggunkan fuzzy Mamdani dibandingkan dengan hasil kecemasan berdasarkan penilian pakar psikologi. Dengan demikian dapat diartikan bahwa tingkat kecemasan dalam penulisan skripsi mahasiswa Departemen Matematika Universitas Negeri Padang lebih banyak berada pada kategori rendah, yaitu sebanyak (60%) dari total responden.Kata Kunci : Logika Fuzzy, Fuzzy Mamdani, Kecemasan Akademik
Peramalan Harga Emas di Kota Padang Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) jannah, Ro'i khatul; Agustina, Dina
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17028

Abstract

Gold is often chosen as an investment because of its profit potential. To maximize returns and avoid losses, it is important for investors to understand the volatile movement of gold prices. This research aims to forecast gold prices using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. ARIMA is an effective method for stationary and non-stationary data, with p, d, and q parameters representing the main components: Autoregressive, differencing, and Moving Average. From this research, the best model ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was obtained. The forecasting results show that the price of gold in January 2024 is Rp990,324.8 and February 2024 is Rp997,035.8, which shows an increase in price with the accuracy of the model using MAPE of 6.72%, meaning that the model is in a very good category according to the MAPE <10% criteria.
Analisis Perbandingan Metode Accrued Benefit Cost dan Entry Age Normal dalam Perhitungan Dana Pensiun Karyawan Swasta Wahyu, Sri
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17322

Abstract

Pension fund management is very important to ensure private employees benefits as pension fund participants and financial stability for pension fund management companies. This study aims to compare the Accrued Benefit Cost (ABC) and Entry Age Normal (EAN) methods in calculating pension funds, which consist of calculating normal contributions, actuarial liabilities, accumulated funds, and insufficient funds. The results show that the ABC method offers greater flexibility in managing contributions as well as a higher potential surplus fund for the company, while the EAN method provides stability in annual contributions with actuarial liabilities and accumulated funds that tend to be higher, making it more suitable for participants who prioritise long-term certainty. Thus, the choice of calculation method should be tailored to the characteristics and needs of the pension plan, especially in the context of dynamic private companies. Proper evaluation is needed to ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of the pension plan for all parties involved.
Analisis Prestasi Atlet PPLP Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Analisis Jalur Charles, Denisha Aprilia
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17070

Abstract

The West Sumatra Student Sport Education and Training Center serves as a training ground and coaching facility to improve sport achievement in West Sumatra. Athletes accomplishments are influenced by a wide range of elements, such as their passions, skills, families, environments, coaches, and motivation. The purpose of this research is to determine the factors direct and indirect influences. This study is an applied one that uses 111 participants as its sample and primary data. The results of the path analysis show that athlete achievement is directly influenced by the variables of physical quality (X1) and motivation variables (X6) . Indirectly, athlete achievement is influenced by the variables of the social environment (X2), athlete character (X3) through the variables of athlete physical quality (X1) , and the variables of the social environment (X2) , perception of the coach (X5) through the variable of athlete motivation (X6). In total, the achievement of athletes in PPLP West Sumatra is influenced by the variables of physical condition (X1) , motivation (X6), social environment (X2), athlete character (X3), and perception of the coach (X5).
Peramalan Produksi Padi Di Provinsi Sumatera Barat dengan Metode LSTM Yanata, Dwiki Dzakwan; Helma, Helma
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.16977

Abstract

The occurrence of rice surplus in West Sumatra Province, makes this province has the potential to become a rice exporting area without reducing local stocks. This research aims to forecast rice production using the LSTM method, which excels in time series data analysis. This research uses secondary data in the form of monthly rice production in West Sumatra from 2009 to 2023 obtained from the Agriculture Office of West Sumatra Province. The process involves data processing, division of the dataset into training and testing data, and construction of the LSTM model. The model is designed to recognize patterns and trends in rice paddy production. The forecasting results show a range of paddy production between 177,038 to 185,343 tons with a MAPE value of 10%, which indicates a good level of accuracy.
Optimasi Portofolio Saham IDX30 Menggunakan Model Black Litterman Gusti, Syafta Elita; Agustina, Dina
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.17120

Abstract

An investment that reflects great interest in the community is stocks. Investors are advised to invest their funds in several stocks to reduce the risk of loss. This can be done by forming an optimal portfolio. One way to get the optimal portfolio is by applying the Black Litterman (BL) model. The BL model is used to optimize stock portfolios by combining market information with investor views. Market information is obtained using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Meanwhile, the time series method is used for investor views. This study uses the daily closing price of IDX30 stocks in the period January 2023-July 2024. The results of the study obtained optimal portfolio weights, namely INDF shares of 0.464220, and BBCA shares of 0.387546.

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