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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 812 Documents
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Dampak Program Kartu Prakerja dalam Penciptaan Wirausaha di Provinsi Jawa Barat Maria Angelina Rosari Mampung; Ribut Nurul Tri Wahyuni
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2688

Abstract

Employment-related issues in West Java remain among the major challenges requiring particular attention. Over the past five years, West Java has consistently ranked among the three provinces with the highest unemployment rates in Indonesia. To address this issue, the Government of Indonesia has implemented various policies, one of which is the Pre-Employment Card Program (Program Kartu Prakerja), which provides various training opportunities, including entrepreneurship- related training, to improve participants’ skills and competencies. Entrepreneurship plays an important role in addressing employment challenges by enabling job seekers to create employment opportunities not only for themselves but also for others. This study aims to examine the impact of the Pre-Employment Card Program on entrepreneurship creation in West Java Province using data from the 2022 National Labour Force Survey (Sakernas) and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method. The results indicate that participation in the Pre-Employment Card Program increases individuals’ likelihood of becoming entrepreneurs. Therefore, the program is recommended to be continued as part of the government’s efforts to address unemployment and promote entrepreneurship and job creation.
Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression untuk Klasifikasi Status Kemiskinan Rumah Tangga di Provinsi D.I. Yogyakarta Andriano Andriano; Nidya Putri Yudhani
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2690

Abstract

Imbalanced data can reduce a classification model's ability to identify poor households as the minority class. This study identifies variables associated with household poverty status in D.I. Yogyakarta Province and evaluates the performance of Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (RE-WLR) under imbalanced data. Data were obtained from the March 2024 National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS), with households as the unit of analysis. RE-WLR was fitted using several class-ratio schemes and regularization parameters and compared with standard binary logistic regression. Health complaints, beneficiary status of Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), and educational attainment were significantly associated with poverty status. At the classification thresholds used, RE-WLR identified the minority class, whereas standard binary logistic regression with the default threshold tended to classify observations as the majority class. These findings suggest that RE-WLR is an alternative for household poverty classification under imbalanced data.
Penuaan di Ruang yang Tidak Setara: Memisahkan Kerentanan Lansia, Dinamika Demografis, dan Konteks Lingkungan di Sulawesi Selatan Nur Hilda Triany
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2691

Abstract

Older-person shares may not reflect vulnerability or environmental context. This study distinguishes demographic ageing, older-person vulnerability, and environmental context across 24 districts/cities in South Sulawesi. Estimates use 6,756 complete cases from March 2025 Susenas and a threshold of at least two of five deprivations: living alone, education, health complaints, lack of health insurance, and household barriers to nutritious food. NDVI, built-up share, and nighttime lights are population-weighted. Spearman correlations are complemented by Moran’s I and sensitivity analyses. Main prevalence is 28.24%. Ageing correlates negatively with migrant stock aged 15–59 (ρ=−0.643), although both exhibit spatial autocorrelation. Vulnerability shows no consistent ecological association with ageing, migration, or environmental indicators. Prevalence is threshold-sensitive; typologies remain unchanged in 20–22 areas under alternative thresholds and all areas under survey-weighted PCA weights. Findings support multidimensional area screening without implying causal effects.
Peredaman Exchange Rate Pass-Through di Era Intervensi Kurs Agresif: Bukti Non-Signifikansi Transmisi Kurs terhadap Inflasi Indonesia (2023–2026) Angelica Carolina Tambunan; Riris Apriani Simarmata
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2692

Abstract

Since September 2023, Bank Indonesia has activated a triple intervention strategy along with SRBI/SVBI/SUVBI instruments to stabilize the Rupiah amid depreciation pressure exceeding Rp17,000, yet domestic inflation has remained contained — an anomaly at odds with classical exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) theory. This study formally tests whether this ERPT dampening reflects a structural policy-regime shift. Using monthly data for the period January 2017–June 2026, covering the regime before and after BI's active intervention since September 2023 and a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework, the study applies multi-scale linearity testing, bootstrap placebo tests, Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRF), a Threshold VAR (TVAR) as sensitivity analysis, a Nonlinear ARDL-based Error Correction Model for asymmetry testing, and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Linearity and placebo tests across nine system-threshold combinations consistently fail to reject a linear specification. In the main model, no statistically significant exchange-rate transmission to inflation is found at any horizon (0–12 months); exchange-rate shocks explain only 0.16% of inflation forecast-error variance (FEVD). These findings support the hypothesis that active exchange-rate intervention has dampened the pass-through channel to domestic inflation.
Determinan Ketimpangan Pendidikan Per Kabupaten/Kota di Pulau Papua Tahun 2018–2021: Analisis Sosio-Ekonomi dengan Pendekatan Spasial-Temporal Dava Setyawan Putra; Jeffry Raja Hamonangan Sitorus
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2695

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns and determinants of educational inequality across 42 districts/cities in Papua Island during the 2018–2021 period. Educational inequality is measured using the Education Gini Coefficient (EGC), which is calculated based on the years of schooling data of the population aged 15 years and over obtained from the raw data of the March 2018–2021 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas KOR) provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The analysis was conducted descriptively using choropleth maps and inferentially using the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) method with the best weighting function, Adaptive Gaussian. The results show that the average EGC increased from 0.4555 in 2018 to 0.5551 in 2020, before declining to 0.5198 in 2021. Higher educational inequality was found in inland, mountainous, and remote areas. The GTWR model demonstrated better performance compared to global regression (p-value = 0.0001). The factors that consistently influenced educational inequality were educational facilities, teacher–student ratios, internet access, and road accessibility. Therefore, educational equity policies should be adjusted to the local characteristics of each region.
Determinan Perilaku Hemat Energi Listrik Mahasiswa Politeknik Statistika STIS Rezky Aditya Ar’razak; I Komang Andhika Putra; Sophie Jasmine Sinaga; Yuliana Yuliana; Zahra Tamara Allyana; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2703

Abstract

Rising electricity consumption in Indonesia highlights the importance of energy-saving behavior, particularly among university students who frequently use electronic devices. This study aims to analyze the relationship between knowledge, attitudes, and social norms regarding the electricity-saving behavior of students at the Politeknik Statistika STIS. A quantitative approach with a cross-sectional design was employed, involving 319 respondents selected through stratified random sampling. Data were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The results indicate that knowledge, attitudes, and social norms are simultaneously and significantly associated with electricity-saving behavior. Individually, however, only attitudes and social norms exert a significant influence, whereas knowledge does not. The regression model achieved a classification accuracy of 81.5%. These findings suggest that strengthening attitudes and social norms is crucial for fostering electricity-saving behavior among students.
Dampak Program Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai Terhadap Konsumsi Rumah Tangga di Nusa Tenggara Timur Ni Putu Nita Yuniarti; Ribut Nurul Tri Wahyuni
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2705

Abstract

Welfare issues persist in most regions of Indonesia, including East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Province, which records the lowest average per capita expenditure and nutrient consumption that falls short of national adequacy standards. To address these challenges, the government implemented the Non-Cash Food Assistance program (Bantuan Pangan Non-Tunai/BPNT) to alleviate household expenditure burdens and fulfill dietary needs. This study aims to evaluate the implementation of BPNT and its impact on expenditure types and household nutrient consumption in NTT Province in 2023. Utilizing the 2023 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) data from BPS-Statistics Indonesia, this study focuses on households as the observational unit, categorized by their poverty status. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method was employed because the selection of BPNT recipient households is non-random and subject to specific criteria. The findings reveal that inclusion and exclusion errors still occur in the implementation of BPNT. Furthermore, under the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA), the estimated Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) values demonstrate that the BPNT program has a positive impact on expenditure types and household nutrient consumption, particularly within poor and severely poor household groups. Consequently, the BPNT program is deemed appropriate and should be sustained to enhance welfare in NTT. Nevertheless, periodic evaluations of the program's implementation are imperative to ensure more precise targeting.
Studi Komparatif Model Double Exponential Smoothing Brown dan ARIMA Dalam Mengevaluasi Proyeksi Kinerja Ekspor Indonesia Periode 2020-2025 Renata Cecilia Br Sirait; Ahda Azkiya Susilo; Faizal Ahmad Habibie; Muh. Aryo Kusuma Hidayat; Neli Agustina
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2707

Abstract

Oil and non-oil exports are key indicators of Indonesia's international trade performance and experienced fluctuations during the 2020–2025 period. This study compares the forecasting accuracy of the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown (DES Brown) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models in projecting Indonesia's export performance. Monthly export volume data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) covering January 2020 to December 2025 were used. The research involved parameter optimization for the DES Brown model and ARIMA model identification. The results show that DES Brown with a smoothing parameter of α = 0.1 achieved better forecasting accuracy with a MAPE of 8.51%, while the best ARIMA model, ARIMA(1,1,1), produced a MAPE of 9.868%. The forecast indicates an upward trend in Indonesia's export volume, reaching 67,910.39 thousand tons in December 2026.
Dampak Spasial Pemekaran Kabupaten Mamuju terhadap Aksesibilitas Fasilitas Publik di Wilayah Induk Monanta Alfiareza
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2711

Abstract

The proposed division of Mamuju Regency into a new autonomous city (Kota Mamuju), covering six sub-districts, will leave five sub-districts as the remaining regency territory. Existing impact assessments are largely administrative-normative and typically tally facility counts per village without accounting for point-level location or actual distance. This study measures the spatial impact of the division using 101 village boundary polygons and 1,032 facility coordinate points (health, education, banking, economy) from Infrastructure Podes 2026, through centroid computation, Haversine geodesic distance, and a cross- region dependency percentage. Results show all four hospitals and 95.7% of banking units are concentrated in the proposed city area, so all (100%) villages in the remaining territory depend on hospitals outside their own jurisdiction, at a mean distance of 63 km. The division is concluded to pose a significant accessibility gap for the remaining territory, warranting mitigation through strengthened referral facilities before the city's formal establishment.
Determinan Kemiskinan Multidimensi Rumah Tangga Pekerja Bebas Pertanian di Jawa Timur Tahun 2025 Muhammad Iqbal; Christiana Anggraeni Putri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2714

Abstract

The agricultural sector absorbs the largest workforce in Indonesia, yet contributes the highest poverty rate, particularly among agricultural casual worker households that are structurally vulnerable. This study measures the level of multidimensional poverty of these households in East Java in 2025 and analyzes its determinants. The data are drawn from the March 2025 National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), with the household as the unit of analysis. Multidimensional poverty is computed using the Alkire-Foster method across three dimensions, namely health, education, and living standards, and is then analyzed using binary logistic regression. The results show that 28.35 percent of agricultural casual worker households are multidimensionally poor, with the highest deprivation in morbidity, drinking water, and sanitation. Household size, smoking status, and a female household head increase the likelihood of poverty, while older age and higher education of the household head reduce it. These findings underscore the need for policies targeting education, gender equality, and access to basic services.

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