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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 812 Documents
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Catalyst for Growth: Analisis Multiplier Effect Investasi IKN Terhadap Perekonomian Kalimantan Timur I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana; Selly Dian Fadila; Dara Sakina; Muhammad Omar Zudan Fahrizal; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2645

Abstract

The Nusantara Capital City (IKN) in East Kalimantan is a national strategic project expected to drive economic growth. This study analyzes the impact of the initial investment in the IKN’s development on the economy of East Kalimantan using Input–Output (I–O) analysis. The 2024 I–O table was updated using the RAS method and used to simulate an investment of Rp56.2 trillion under two scenarios. The results show that construction and manufacturing are key sectors, while mining and quarrying which contribute 39.26% to the regional gross domestic product (GRDP) are not considered key sectors. IKN investment has a positive impact on output, net domestic product (NDP), household income, and employment. Simulation 1 yields higher output and employment. Simulation 2 yields higher household income with relatively similar NTB and more widespread benefits. These findings highlight the importance of investment allocation and strengthening broadly interconnected sectors to support East Kalimantan’s economic diversification.
Simulasi Dampak Peningkatan Anggaran Pendidikan terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2025 Raihan Sofia; Anak Agung Istri Anggita Kesumawijaya; Muhammad Rafa Arianto; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2647

Abstract

Education is a fundamental investment for a country’s progress. The Indonesian government has increased the education budget in the 2025 Draft State Budget to drive post-pandemic economic recovery and growth. This research aims to analyze the linkages between the education sector and other sectors, and simulates changes in output, value added, household income, and employment under an education budget increase scenario. The study utilizes the 2024 Input-Output (I-O) table, with the education budget increase of IDR 59.24 trillion treated as a final demand injection into the Education Services sector. Based on IDK and IDP values, the education sector is in the lagging category. However, the injection generated an additional national output of IDR 86.20 trillion and an additional education sector output of IDR 60.04 trillion. Besides output, the injection also increased value added, household income, and employment in both the education sector and other sectors.
Prediksi Harga Emas di Pasar Jakarta Menggunakan ARIMAX dengan Google Trends dan Stabilitas Moneter Dinda Putri Nabila; Lola Monica; Moh. Fajril Adiko; Ibrahim Bazra Ritonga; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2652

Abstract

Gold has long been regarded as an important safe-haven asset; however, its price movements in the domestic market have become increasingly complex, particularly in the post-COVID-19 period. This study aims to identify the optimal combination of exogenous variables in the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model for forecasting gold prices in the Jakarta market. The exogenous variables examined include inflation, the Bank Indonesia policy interest rate, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the Google Trends search index for the keyword “gold price”. The analysis uses monthly data from 2022 to 2025, comprising a total of 46 observations. The results indicate that ARIMA(0,2,2) is the best baseline model. Furthermore, among the various combinations of exogenous variables, only Google Trends is statistically significant and improves forecasting accuracy, whereas monetary stability indicators do not make a consistent contribution. These findings suggest that Google Trends, as a proxy for search attention, provides additional information that is relevant to modeling and forecasting gold prices in the Jakarta market.
Mendeteksi Kerentanan Desa di Tengah Ketidakpastian Ekonomi: Pengembangan Indeks Kapasitas Adaptasi Desa melalui Integrasi Podes dan Penginderaan Jauh Abyan Rai; Mochamad Ridwan
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2657

Abstract

Economic uncertainty affects regions unevenly, while the Village Potential Census (Podes), as the most granular source of village-level data, is static and therefore has limited capacity to detect regional vulnerabilities at an early stage. This study integrates Podes data with remote sensing data to construct a Village Adaptive Capacity Index for 187 villages in Bekasi Regency using the Entropy-TOPSIS method. The robustness of the index is assessed, while its spatial patterns are further analyzed using Moran’s I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association, and K-means typology based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The data used in this study are derived from remote sensing imagery and the Village Potential Census conducted by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The resulting Village Adaptive Capacity Index ranges from 0.134 to 0.764, with strong spatial autocorrelation. The regional typology reveals a Transition cluster, demonstrating that data integration can uncover hidden vulnerabilities that are not captured by Podes alone.
Analisis Konvergensi Ekonomi Daerah Berbasis Statistik Resmi pada Era Uncertainty Economy Azka Annisa Ramadhani; Decapryo Rivian Belo; Hasna Fathin Nur Diniyah; Muhamad Naufal Mazidan; Victor Ardiansyah Maruli Sitorus; Rofiq Nur Rizal
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2658

Abstract

Regional economic disparities remain a major development chalenge in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Province. This study examines economic convergence and identifies the determinants of district/city GDP per capita growth during the pre- pandemic, pandemic and post-pandemic COVID-19. Using official statistical data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study analyzes panel data from 22 districts/cities during the 2019–2023 period through panel data regression. The explanatory variables include initial GDP per capita, Gini ratio, internet access, open unemployment rate (TPT), and human development index (HDI). The finding reveal significant regional heterogeneity and confirm the presence of economic convergence, as shown by the negative and significant coeficient of initial GDP per capita. HDI positively affects economic growth, whereas Gini ratio and internet access show significant negative effect; while TPT is insignificant. These result highlight the need to strengthen human capital, expand equitable digital infrastructure, and reduce inequality to accelerate regional economic convergence in NTT.
Embodied Emissions Gas Rumah Kaca dalam Perekonomian Indonesia Anis Latifah; Muhammad Gilang Permadi; Salwa Fauza Nafisa; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2659

Abstract

Climate change is a global challenge and a key focus of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13. Indonesia aims to achieve Net Zero Emissions by 2060 or sooner; however, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to increase. Existing policies primarily focus on direct emissions while overlooking indirect emissions and embodied emissions associated with trade. This study estimates the embodied emissions of each economic sector, examines embodied emissions in trade, and identifies the major emission-contributing sectors using Indonesia's 2020 input–output table and 2022 greenhouse gas emissions data published by Statistics Indonesia. The results indicate that Indonesia's economic structure remains highly dependent on emission-intensive sectors, particularly Manufacturing and Electricity and Gas Supply, both directly and indirectly. Most emissions are generated to satisfy domestic consumption, while the country's emission balance shows a surplus, reflecting the high carbon footprint of export-oriented production. These findings highlight the need for cross-sectoral decarbonisation and more sustainable consumption patterns to support Indonesia's Net Zero Emissions target.
Disparitas Mutu Satuan Pendidikan Dasar di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat: Estimasi Skor Akreditasi Berbasis Peringkat Huruf Muhammad Iqbal
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2660

Abstract

Education quality gaps are commonly read as gaps between regions. This study tests that assumption using accreditation results for 1,056 basic-education units in West Nusa Tenggara for 2024–2026. Results are published only as letter grades, although each letter represents a defined score range. Those ranges were used to estimate the underlying scores by maximum likelihood, controlling for differences in visitation year. The estimated provincial score is 82.30, with district estimates spanning only 80.8 to 84.4. Only 4.0 percent of the quality gap comes from differences between districts, with a 95 percent confidence interval of 2.5 to 8.4 percent, while the remainder comes from differences between schools within the same district. This does not remove the role of districts as budget delivery units; it changes the basis of allocation from regional averages to the number of schools still below the quality threshold.
Pengaruh Harga Komoditas Substit Pengaruh Harga Komoditas Substitusi dan Karakteristik Sosial Ekonomi terhadap Konsumsi Beras di Indonesia Tahun 2023 Lintang Pertiwi; Imam Addarul Quthni; Ramadhani Zaki Suruuri; Budiasih Budiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2664

Abstract

Rising rice prices and food price volatility have made the analysis of factors influencing rice consumption in Indonesia increasingly relevant. This study aims to analyze the effects of prices of rice substitute commodities, as well as socioeconomic characteristics namely average years of schooling (AYS) and the provincial minimum wage (PMW) on rice consumption in Indonesia in 2023. The study uses cross-sectional secondary data from 34 provinces obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the National Food Agency (Bapanas), and the Center for Agricultural Data and Information (Pusdatin). The analytical method employed is multiple linear regression using a Cobb–Douglas functional approach. The results show that, simultaneously, all independent variables have a significant effect on rice consumption, with the model explaining 59.8% of the variation in rice consumption across provinces. Partially, the price of potatoes has a significant positive cross-price elasticity of 0.259, indicating its role as a substitute for rice, while the price of maize exhibits the largest negative elasticity at −0.457, suggesting the absence of direct substitution and the strong influence of consumption preferences. From a socioeconomic perspective, the elasticity of average years of schooling is significantly positive at 0.472, reflecting the role of education in maintaining adequate staple food consumption, whereas the elasticity of the provincial minimum wage is negative at −0.083 but statistically insignificant, indicating a tendency toward food diversification as income increases that is not yet strongly supported empirically. These findings underscore the importance of considering relative food prices and socioeconomic characteristics in the formulation of national food policies.
Penyusunan Indeks Resiliensi Ekonomi Kecamatan Berbasis Official Statistics dengan Metode Composite Indeks untuk Mendukung Perencanaan Pembangunan di Kabupaten Madiun Eka Della Faradisa
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2665

Abstract

Economic resilience is an important indicator for assessing the ability of a region to withstand, adapt to, and recover from various economic pressures. Therefore, measuring economic resilience is essential for supporting more targeted development policy formulation. This study aims to develop an economic resilience index at the subdistrict level based on official statistics using the composite index method in Madiun Regency. The study covers 15 subdistricts and nine indicators grouped into three dimensions: economic, human resource, and demographic. All indicators were normalized using the min- max method and aggregated using equal weighting to obtain dimension scores and a composite index. Resilience categories were determined using the quartile method (Q1–Q3) as category thresholds. The results show that the economic resilience index ranges from 0.274 to 0.878, with Mejayan Subdistrict having the highest index value of 0.878 and Balerejo Subdistrict having the lowest index value of 0.274. The index classifies the 15 subdistricts into four categories: low, with 4 subdistricts; moderate, with 4 subdistricts; high, with 3 subdistricts; and very high, with 4 subdistricts. These findings indicate disparities in economic, human resource, and demographic capacities across subdistricts. Subdistricts with low resilience should be prioritized for development interventions through strengthening economic activities, improving human resource quality, and expanding supporting facilities according to local characteristics. The resulting index can serve as a supporting instrument for mapping regional conditions and determining data-driven development priorities in Madiun Regency.
Penerapan Algoritma K-Means Clustering Pada Pengelompokan Data Pendidikan Tertinggi Angkatan Kerja Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2025 Airin Trisafina Siregar; Citra Dewi Hasibuan; Ema Sri Rezeki
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2670

Abstract

The labor force is key to regional economic development. Differences in labor force education reflect variations in human resources, socioeconomic conditions, and labor markets across regions. The objective of this study is to apply k-means clustering to group regions based on the similarity of labor force education level characteristics, specifically uses data on the population of North Sumatra aged 15 and older who are part of the labor force, categorized by regency/city and highest level of education completed (August 2025). The results of this study indicate the formation of two groups: a group with an elementary school education as their highest level of education, and a group dominated by high school graduates

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