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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 812 Documents
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Pendugaan Tingkat Kemiskinan Disabilitas Jawa Tengah 2025: Perbandingan EBLUP Transformasi Logit dan HB Beta Wisnu Aimariyadi; Nofita Istiana
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2747

Abstract

Direct estimation of the percentage of poor persons with disabilities at the regency/city level often has low precision due to limited sample sizes. This study compares Small Area Estimation (SAE) using Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP) with logit transformation and Hierarchical Bayes (HB) with a Beta distribution across 35 regencies/cities in Central Java in 2025. Direct estimation yielded an average RSE of 42.86%, with 22 areas classified as poor and one area without an estimate. The application of SAE improved precision and produced estimates for all areas. EBLUP with logit transformation yielded an average RSE of 20.02%, with 30 areas classified as good, while HB Beta yielded an average RSE of 18.99%, with 31 areas classified as good. However, the random effects and residuals of the EBLUP logit model did not satisfy the normality assumption. Overall, HB Beta demonstrated better performance in terms of estimation precision and model suitability for proportional data.
Variabel-Variabel yang memengaruhi Indeks Pembangunan Gender Arifa Tri Sarwosih; Timbang Sirait
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2752

Abstract

Gender-based development requires achieving equality in development outcomes between men and women. Although Indonesia's Human Development Index (HDI) showed a steady upward trend during the 2020–2024 period, the trajectory of the Gender Development Index (GDI) did not follow the same pattern, as women's development outcomes continued to lag behind those of men. This disparity is inextricably linked to the influence of social institutions, such as norms, customs, culture, and formal and informal rules that shape gender relations within society. This study aims to analyze the evolution of provincial GDI in Indonesia and identify the impact of social institutions on the GDI during the 2020–2024 period. The influence of social institutions on gender development in this study is represented by four dimensions: family code, physical integrity, ownership rights, and civil liberties. The analysis was conducted using a Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The results indicate that early marriage (within the family code dimension), gender-based violence against women (within the physical integrity dimension), and bank account ownership and internet access (within the ownership rightsdimension) have a significant impact on the GDI. Conversely, the child sex ratio, home ownership by female heads of households, and women's parliamentary participation do not have a significant impact on the GDI.
Indeks Ketahanan terhadap Bencana Iklim pada Tingkat Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia Tahun 2024 Nabila Fatma Putri Yunardi; Yuliagnis Transver Wijaya
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2754

Abstract

Indonesia has a high level of exposure to climate disasters. The same exposure in each region does not always result in similar losses. Efforts to reduce climate disaster losses are to build resilience to climate disasters. Until now, there has been no composite index that measures climate disaster resilience at the district/city level nationally in Indonesia, making it difficult to identify priority areas with low resilience. Therefore, the preparation of the Climate Disaster Resilience Index needs to be carried out. The index is compiled using 19 variables that are reduced to 5 factors. Areas with high levels of resilience are on the island of Java, while areas with low levels of resilience are spread across the Eastern Indonesia Region. The results of the evaluation show that the index formed by the method of min-max normalization, entropy weighting, and linear aggregation is stable. In general, most districts/cities with moderate natural disaster risk have a moderate level of resilience. The Climate Disaster Resilience Index can be used as a basis for policy formulation to improve climate disaster resilience.
Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Overeducation Mismatch Tenaga Kerja Berpendidikan Tinggi di DKI Jakarta Tahun 2025 Nilam Cahya Meilani; Efri Diah Utami
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2756

Abstract

The demographic bonus has increased the proportion of the working-age population in Indonesia, including college graduates. However, this increase has not been matched by the labor market's ability to provide suitable jobs, giving rise to the phenomenon of overeducation mismatch. Java, as the center of the national economy, has a relatively high percentage of overeducation mismatch among highly educated workers in each province, with the highest percentage in the DKI Jakarta region. This study aims to determine the picture of overeducation mismatch and the factors that influence it in the highly educated workforce in DKI Jakarta in 2025, as well as its tendency value using Sakernas 2025 data. The study used a binary logistic regression analysis method and determined overeducation mismatch with a normative approach based on the Indonesian Standard Occupational Classification (KBJI). This study found that age, working hours, employment contract ownership, education level, education department, training experience, and length of service significantly influence overeducation mismatch.
Penerapan Model SARIMAX untuk Peramalan Curah Hujan dengan Variabel Eksogen Indian Ocean Dipole di Kota Pariaman Taura Davin Santosa; Fadzilla Kusuma Ningrum; Amalia Khoirum Mazidah; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2762

Abstract

Rainfall is seasonal, fluctuating, and influenced by external factors, requiring a method capable of capturing these patterns while incorporating exogenous variables. In this study, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (SARIMAX) model is applied and compared with the SARIMA model to assess the extent to which the inclusion of the exogenous IOD variable improves rainfall forecasting accuracy in Pariaman City. The data used consist of monthly secondary data for rainfall and the IOD from January 2010 to December 2024. The results indicate that the SARIMAX model outperformed the SARIMA model in forecasting performance. The best-performing model was SARIMAX(0,0,0)(1,1,1)12 with a MAPE value of 36.25% and an RMSE of 174.03. The forecasting results are expected to serve as a reference for formulating regional economic development policies and managing climate-sensitive sectors, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of Pariaman City to climate variability.
Analisis Sentimen Kebijakan Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Terkait Bahan Bakar Minyak pada Media Sosial X Fadzilla Kusuma Ningrum; Muhammad Muhlis Aditya Nur Wahid; Muhammad Halim; Rizal Fakhruddin Nasution; Syadza Khumairah Akmul; Lya Hulliyyatus Suadaa
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2763

Abstract

Throughout 2024, policies issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) concerning fuel triggered diverse public responses on the social media X. This study aims to analyze public sentiment on X toward the policy using 763 tweets collected through web scraping (after removing duplicates from the 913 tweets). Data were labeled using Gemini AI and validated by three annotators, achieving a Fleiss' Kappa of 0.66, indicating substantial agreement. To address class imbalance, back translation was applied as a data augmentation technique, and sentimen classification was performed using Naïve Bayes and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms with N-Gram features. The results show that Naïve Bayes with back translation achieved the best performance, with an F1-score of 85%, compared with 82% for SVM. Topic modeling using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) identified three main topics with a coherence score of 0,46: the single-gate import policy, fuel scarcity at private gas stations, and the role of the House of Representatives. The dominant negative sentiment indicates an unfavorable public perception of the policy.
Perkembangan Akses Internet dan Dinamika Konsumsi Rumah Tangga Pulau Jawa Rafa Risqillah Tanaya
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2767

Abstract

Developments in digital technology have expanded the role of the internet in household activities. Household consumption has become one of the economic activities affected by this expansion of the internet’s role. This study aims to analyze the relationship between internet use and per capita household consumption in six provinces on Java for the period 2019–2025, using the following indicators: internet access, e-banking usage, average net salary, as well as the pandemic period and recovery. This study employs a Random Effects Model, with the unit of analysis comprising six provinces on Java for the period 2019–2025. The estimation results indicate that the variables of internet access, e-banking usage, and average net salary are significantly and positively associated with per capita household consumption. Meanwhile, the pandemic shock variable is not significantly associated, while the pandemic recovery variable is significantly and negatively associated with per capita household consumption on Java.
Variabel Iklim Satelit dan Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara I Made Giri Suyasa
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2771

Abstract

Tourism contributes over 18 percent of Bali's regional GDP, making the local economy particularly sensitive to external disruptions, climate variability among them. Using an ARDL bounds testing framework with the IDR/USD exchange rate as a control variable, this study examines the short- and long-run effects of two satellite-derived climate variables, namely CHIRPS precipitation and MODIS land surface temperature, on international tourist arrivals to Bali from May 2022 to May 2026. Results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between climate and arrivals (F=11.574; p=1×10⁻⁶). Precipitation proves to be the more consistent climate predictor, with a long-run elasticity of −0.181 (p=0.001). Land surface temperature carries a negative coefficient in the expected direction (elasticity −2.204; p=0.073), though significant only at the 10 percent level. The estimated half-life of approximately 2.2 months indicates that Bali's tourism market adjusts to climate shocks within a relatively short window.
Eco-Efficiency Sektor Pariwisata di Kabupaten/Kota Pulau Jawa Beserta Variabel yang Memengaruhinya Tahun 2023 Dyah Widyastuti; Yuliagnis Transver Wijaya
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2775

Abstract

The growth of Indonesia's tourism sector has contributed significantly to the national economy while increasing environmental pressure through greenhouse gas emissions. Eco-efficiency has become an important concept for assessing tourism sustainability by integrating economic performance with environmental impacts. This study measures the eco- efficiency of the tourism sector across regencies and municipalities in Java in 2023 using the Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) model with undesirable outputs and examines its determinants using Tobit regression. Economic performance is represented by tourism Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), while environmental performance is measured by greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that most regions remain inefficient, with substantial disparities across areas. Economic development has a significant negative effect on eco-efficiency, whereas infrastructure has a significant positive effect. Education level and urbanization show positive but insignificant effects. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening sustainable infrastructure and cross-sectoral policies to enhance eco- efficient and sustainable tourism development.
Analisis Klaster Profil Mutu Sekolah di Indonesia Berdasarkan Dimensi Infrastruktur dan Inovasi Pembelajaran Muhammad Rifky; Aqila Nur Aliya; Nasywa Putri Azzahra; Shafara Nasywa Akbar; Bill Chairy Rizky Bustaren
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2780

Abstract

Educational quality in Indonesia faces disparities in infrastructure and instructional innovation, necessitating data- driven school profiling to support targeted policies. This quantitative study aims to analyze school quality profile clusters using an integrated Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and K-Means Clustering approach. Utilizing secondary data from the 2025 National Assessment Public Report, 13,931 schools were retained from an initial dataset of 23,225 following data cleaning and outlier elimination. PCA reduced seven Z-score standardized indicators into two principal components, accounting for 52.94% of total variance (PC1 = 30.89% and PC2 = 22.05%). Comparative evaluation using the Elbow method, Silhouette Coefficient (0.43), Davies-Bouldin Index (0.805), and Calinski-Harabasz Index (11,530) consistently established k=3 as the optimal partition. The analysis identified: Cluster 1 (3,224 schools) with strong infrastructure but weak innovation (infrastructure-usage gap); Cluster 2 (7,777 schools) with dual deficiencies across both dimensions; and Cluster 3 (2,930 schools) demonstrating superior pedagogical practices despite facility constraints. These findings highlight the critical need to shift from a one-size-fits-all policy approach toward cluster-targeted interventions.

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