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Reza Muamar Zaki
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Inkubis: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Published by Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional
ISSN : 27753913     EISSN : 27751848     DOI : 10.59261
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
INKUBIS: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis is a scientific periodical published twice a year or 6 months. INKUBIS: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis is managed by the Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional which publishes scientific manuscripts in the family of economics and business
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekomomi dan Ekonometrika
Articles 235 Documents
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A Machine Learning-Based Early Warning System for Predicting Rupiah Exchange-Rate Pressure in Indonesia Welly Ramantika Ramantika; Muhammad Zarlis
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i2.316

Abstract

Background: Predicting economic vulnerability within the Twin Deficit Hypothesis (TDH) framework remains a significant challenge for developing countries due to the frequency mismatch between slow-moving macroeconomic fundamentals and rapidly changing financial market indicators. Objective: This study aims to address this gap by developing a hybrid Early Warning System (EWS) that integrates multi-frequency data to predict the probability of a Twin Deficit crisis in Indonesia with a one-month forecasting horizon. Methods: The dataset comprises macroeconomic and market data covering the period from 2010 to 2026. A mixed-frequency data alignment approach is employed to integrate quarterly fiscal and macroeconomic indicators, monthly fiscal deficit data, and daily market indicators, including the USD/IDR exchange rate, government bond yields, and global commodity prices. Results: Historical fiscal data gaps (2010–2017) are addressed using ARIMA-based stochastic interpolation. The XGBoost model, optimized using Borderline-SMOTE, achieves an accuracy of 79.17%, a recall rate of 87.50%, and a PR-AUC value of 0.9146 in a 24-month out-of-sample evaluation, outperforming Logit and Probit benchmark models. SHAP analysis identifies global Brent crude oil prices and domestic bond market stress as the dominant factors influencing the occurrence of Twin Deficit crises in Indonesia. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate that integrating high-frequency market signals enhances the detection of emerging fundamental vulnerabilities, providing an operational tool for fiscal and monetary authorities to support preventive policy coordination. The proposed machine-learning-based EWS, which combines mixed-frequency data integration with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), offers a theoretically grounded and practically applicable framework for macroeconomic crisis monitoring in developing economies. This approach enables forward-looking and coordinated policy responses by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia before fiscal and external imbalances escalate into a full-scale crisis.
Omnichannel Strategy and Customer Experience on Purchase Decisions: Trust as Mediating Variable Selmi Dedi; Yulius Heri Saptomo; Dirarini Sudarwari
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i2.323

Abstract

Background: Digital transformation has reshaped consumer behavior, encouraging cosmetics retailers to adopt omnichannel strategies and enhance customer experience. However, limited research has examined the mediating role of trust in the relationship between omnichannel strategy, customer experience, and purchase decisions within local cosmetics retail contexts. Objective: This study examines the effects of omnichannel strategy and customer experience on purchase decisions at Rain Cosmetic Stores, with trust as a mediating variable. Methods: A quantitative explanatory research design was employed. Data were collected from 100 Rain Cosmetic consumers using purposive sampling and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) with SmartPLS 4.0 to evaluate direct and indirect relationships among variables. Results: Omnichannel strategy significantly influences trust (β = 0.354, p = 0.004) but does not significantly affect purchase decisions (β = 0.133, p = 0.340). Customer experience significantly affects trust (β = 0.518, p < 0.001) and purchase decisions (β = 0.559, p < 0.001). Trust does not have a significant effect on purchase decisions (β = 0.231, p = 0.059) and does not mediate the relationship between omnichannel strategy or customer experience and purchase decisions (p > 0.05). These findings indicate that customer experience is the primary driver of purchase decisions, whereas trust plays a limited mediating role. Conclusion: Customer experience is the strongest determinant of purchase decisions, while omnichannel strategy primarily contributes to trust development rather than directly influencing purchasing behavior. Trust does not significantly translate into purchase decisions, suggesting that experiential factors have a greater influence than perceived credibility in shaping consumer decisions within this context.
Blockchain and IoT Integration in Digitalpreneurship Curricula: A Framework for Enhancing Halal Traceability Alif Ringga Persada; Rijal Assidiq Mulyana; Abdul Muizz Abdul Wadud Kasyful Anwar; Refaldo Fanther
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i2.334

Abstract

Background: The global halal market is expanding rapidly, yet formal halal certification among Indonesian MSMEs stagnates at approximately 0.08%, reflecting systemic barriers in digital literacy and inefficiencies in manual self-declare compliance systems. Objective: This study aims to reconstruct a digitalpreneurship incubator curriculum through the “Halal Metric” framework, integrating Blockchain and IoT technologies to automate Shariah compliance and enhance end-to-end halal traceability. Methods: Utilizing a mixed-methods R&D design with the ADDIE instructional model, the study developed a pedagogical approach centered on three competency pillars: Halal Digital Presence, Blockchain Integrity, and Smart Contract Verification. The curriculum was pilot-tested with 50 purposively selected MSME tenants from UIN Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon’s business incubator. Performance was measured through blockchain transaction logs, verification time benchmarks, and validated Likert-scale surveys assessing administrative burden and consumer trust. Results: The intervention enabled real-time digital traceability, reducing verification time from seven days to under 30 minutes, with 99.8% accuracy in deviation detection. Administrative burdens decreased by 85%, and consumer trust increased by 89% compared to manual baselines. Conclusion: The synergy between digital entrepreneurship education and Halal Metric technology serves as essential trust infrastructure for MSME participation in both national and global halal ecosystems.
Multichannel Information and Choice Overload, Decision Fatigue, and Delayed Purchase Decisions Among Gen Z Consumers Ketut Ari Satya Utami; Putu Dyah Permatha Korry; Kadek Wulandari Laksmi P; I Gusti Ngurah Oka Ariwangsa
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i2.339

Abstract

Background: The high level of transactions that are not completed in the digital shopping process shows a gap between consumer interest and the realization of final purchases. Data covering 200 million customers from Dynamic Yield shows that the global shopping cart abandonment rate remains relatively high at 76.99%. At the regional level, Asia-Pacific (APAC) recorded the highest abandonment rate at 79.94%, followed by EMEA at 79.02% and the Americas at 73.25%. The data indicate that most consumers who place products in the cart do not complete the purchase process. Objective: This study aims to examine the effects of information overload and choice overload on delay purchase decisions, with decision fatigue serving as a mediating variable among Generation Z consumers in selecting sunscreen products in Bali Province, Indonesia. Method: The study employed a quantitative approach using a survey method by distributing questionnaires to Generation Z consumers who had previously searched for information and considered purchasing sunscreen products. Data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS). Result: The findings reveal that information overload has a positive and significant effect on both delay purchase decisions and decision fatigue. Meanwhile, choice overload has a positive but insignificant effect on delay purchase decisions, while exerting a positive and significant effect on decision fatigue. The results further indicate that decision fatigue has a positive and significant effect on delay purchase decisions. Moreover, decision fatigue is proven to mediate the relationships between information overload and delay purchase decisions, as well as between choice overload and delay purchase decisions. These findings reinforce the Stimulus–Organism–Response (S-O-R) Theory and Cognitive Load Theory in explaining the purchasing behavior of Generation Z consumers in digital environments characterized by abundant information and extensive product choices. Conclusion: This study is expected to provide practical implications for the skincare industry and digital platforms in designing more effective marketing communication strategies that minimize consumers' cognitive burden.
Discount Framing, Live Commerce, and CRM Automation on Repurchase Intention through Perceived Value in Shopee and TikTok Shop Users Livia Vandaniya; Nurul Adilawati; Moch Ilham Firmansyah; Naufal Zul Fahmi; Ika Diyah Candra Arifah
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i2.344

Abstract

Background: E-commerce platforms increasingly rely on promotional strategies, interactive shopping experiences, and automation-based Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems. Previous studies have examined discount framing, live commerce, and CRM automation separately, without addressing their simultaneous effects on repurchase intention through perceived value, a critical gap in the digital marketing literature. Objective: Grounded in the Stimulus–Organism–Response (S-O-R) theory, this study examines the influence of discount framing, live commerce, and CRM automation on repurchase intention, with perceived value as a mediating variable, among Shopee and TikTok Shop users in Indonesia. Methods: A quantitative cross-sectional survey was administered to 424 respondents selected using purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS 4. Results: The results indicate that discount framing, live commerce, and CRM automation have positive and significant effects on perceived value and repurchase intention. Furthermore, perceived value has a positive and significant effect on repurchase intention and partially mediates the relationships between discount framing, live commerce, and CRM automation and repurchase intention. Among the three stimulus variables, CRM automation demonstrated the strongest contribution to increasing perceived value, highlighting the importance of personalized communication, rapid automated responses, and relevant product recommendations in shaping positive consumer evaluations. These findings extend the application of the S-O-R theory by emphasizing that perceived value serves as an important psychological mechanism linking digital marketing stimuli to repurchase behavior. Conclusion: E-commerce platforms should optimize promotional formats, enhance live commerce interactivity, and strengthen CRM automation capabilities to maximize perceived value and sustain repurchase behavior.

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