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Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ)
Published by Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia
ISSN : -     EISSN : 30637473     DOI : https://doi.org/10.70710/sitj
Core Subject : Social,
Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) is a leading journal focused on the role of intelligence and secretive agencies in international relations and counterterrorism
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Sosial - Ilmu Sosial (Lain-Lain)
Articles 68 Documents
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Strategic Blindness in Outer Space: Asymmetric Threat Analysis of Starlink on Indonesia's Cyber Sovereignty and Intelligence Mitigation Strategies Ridwansyah, Ahmad; Persadha, Pratama Dahlian; Supriadi, Edy
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.82

Abstract

The advent of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, epitomized by SpaceX's Starlink, has fundamentally disrupted the global telecommunications architecture. While offering critical connectivity solutions for archipelagic nations like Indonesia, this technology simultaneously introduces profound asymmetric threats to national security. This study aims to analyze the anatomy of these threats, evaluate their multidimensional impacts, and formulate a comprehensive intelligence strategy to mitigate the hegemony of Starlink's technology. Adopting a post-positivist paradigm, this research utilizes a qualitative descriptive method integrated with the Intelligence Analysis Cycle. The findings indicate that the threat level of Starlink is 'Critical' based on Hank Prunckun's threat matrix (T = I x C), driven predominantly by uncontrolled technical capabilities rather than malicious intent. Starlink is identified as bypassing national gateways, creating "strategic blindness" for intelligence apparatuses, and acting as a force multiplier for separatist groups via anti-jamming communication capabilities. Economically, its dominance threatens to de-industrialize local telecommunications infrastructure through predatory pricing. The study recommends a mitigation strategy based on Arthur F. Lykke Jr.’s model, advocating for "Market Power Diplomacy," the establishment of independent Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and the implementation of a hardware ban as an ultimum remedium.
Assessing the Threat of Online Scamming–Based Human Trafficking: Transnational Criminal Capacity and National Security Implications in the Myawaddy Case Santoso, A P
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.85

Abstract

Online scamming–based human trafficking has emerged as a complex transnational phenomenon that combines digital deception with coercive exploitation. This research analyzes the threat posed by human trafficking syndicates operating in Myawaddy, Myanmar, by examining their operational intent, capacity, and the vulnerabilities that enable sustained victimization. This study employs a qualitative methodology, drawing data from semi-structured interviews with repatriated Indonesian victims, institutional stakeholders involved in protection and law enforcement, and subject matter experts, complemented by secondary data from international organization reports and scholarly literature. The analysis is framed using Hank Prunckun’s threat assessment and vulnerability assessment framework. The findings indicate that the threat level is high, driven by persistent criminal intent and advanced transnational operational capability, while vulnerabilities remain acute due to economic pressure, limited digital safeguards, normalized online recruitment practices, and gaps in cross-border oversight. From a national security perspective, this threat is non-traditional and multidimensional, affecting human security, political and diplomatic capacity, social resilience, economic stability, and cybersecurity. The study concludes that addressing this threat requires an integrated security response that combines disruption of transnational scam operations with structural efforts to reduce domestic vulnerabilities that sustain exposure to exploitation.
Assessing the Threat and Vulnerability of Hallyu among Indonesian Generation Z AS, Ria
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.86

Abstract

Hallyu, or the Korean Wave, has evolved into a global cultural phenomenon that shapes consumption patterns, identity formation, and lifestyle orientations across national boundaries. In Indonesia, the extensive exposure of Generation Z to Korean popular culture through digital platforms positions this cohort as a strategically significant audience within transnational cultural flows. This study examines the threat and vulnerability of Hallyu exposure among Indonesian Generation Z and examines its implications for cultural resilience in a rapidly globalizing cultural environment. Employing a qualitative descriptive analytical approach, the study draws on non participatory observation, semi structured interviews with institutional stakeholders, cultural actors, and youth communities, and analysis of official cultural documents. Data were interpreted using Prunckun’s threat and vulnerability assessment framework and an intelligence informed analytical perspective. The findings indicate a moderate threat level with a total threat coefficient of 13, driven primarily by high capability factors, particularly knowledge and resource mobilization supporting Hallyu dissemination. The vulnerability assessment yields a moderate vulnerability profile (coefficient score: 9), reflecting strong attractiveness, facilitated digital penetration, and cumulative cultural impact. The study argues that Hallyu constitutes an invisible cultural security challenge that does not manifest through coercion, but through gradual normalization and asymmetry in cultural influence. Strengthening cultural resilience through governance, literacy, and competitive local cultural ecosystems is therefore essential to ensure balanced cultural development without securitizing popular cultural consumption.
Do Surges in Civil Mobilization Serve as Early Warnings for Political Conflict? Rajagukguk, Michael Haratua; Siagian, Ruben Cornelius
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.87

Abstract

Political conflict and mass violence are major threats to security stability, especially in developing countries such as Indonesia. Civil mobilization through demonstrations is often considered an expression of social dissatisfaction, but its role as an early indicator of political violence escalation has not been analyzed quantitatively across countries and time. This study aims to explore the temporal relationship between an increase in demonstrations, the escalation of political violence, and the number of fatalities, as well as to develop an Early Warning Index as a counterintelligence tool. Using cross-country ACLED panel data from 1997 to 2026, the study applies a fixed effects model with one and two period lags, logarithmic transformation, and Granger causality tests to assess temporal causal relationships. The results show that a surge in demonstrations in the previous period significantly predicts an increase in political violence (coefficient = 0.592, t = 11.62, p < 0.001) and fatalities (coefficient = 0.475, t = 6.90, p < 0.001). The Granger causality test confirmed that demonstrations systematically led to an escalation in violence and fatalities. The Early Warning Index shows significant variations in risk, with maximum values indicating high social pressure that can serve as an early signal of conflict escalation. These findings fill a gap in quantitative research on the role of demonstrations as a leading indicator of political conflict. The index provides counterintelligence decision makers with an analytical tool for proactively detecting the risk of destabilization, particularly in the pre-election period or when sensitive identity-based issues arise.
Scenario Planning Model for Counterintelligence Strategy Against Foreign Intelligence Operations in Indonesia Sagaf, Husein
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.88

Abstract

Foreign intelligence operations continue to occur within Indonesian territory despite existing regulatory frameworks governing state intelligence. This phenomenon reveals Indonesia's territorial vulnerabilities driven by the attraction of natural resources and weaknesses in counterintelligence governance following the 1998 Reformasi. This study aims to analyze Indonesia's vulnerabilities to foreign intelligence operations and formulate a scenario planning-based counterintelligence strategy model. The research employs qualitative methods through in-depth interviews with national intelligence stakeholders, Focus Group Discussions (FGD), and document analysis. Data were analyzed using the TAIDA framework (Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding, Acting). Interviews were conducted with representatives from various intelligence and national security agencies while maintaining informant confidentiality in accordance with research ethics. Findings reveal that Indonesia's vulnerabilities stem from three main factors: the attraction of natural resources, legal gaps in prosecuting espionage/sabotage, and institutional fragmentation characterized by sectoral intelligence governance. The scenario planning model identifies four scenarios based on two critical driving forces: internal intelligence governance cohesion and external foreign intelligence operation intensity. Based on current conditions and intelligence practitioners' perspectives, Indonesia is positioned in Scenario 2 (weak internal cohesion, high external intensity), indicating foreign intelligence dominance. The most relevant current strategies are strengthening BIN's coordination role and implementing reverse operations. This study recommends strengthening the legal foundation through revising the State Intelligence Law or creating a comprehensive National Security Law to establish espionage/sabotage as criminal offenses with clear sanctions.
Economic Shockwaves and Extremist Pathways: A Dual-Perspective Analysis of the 2025 Trade War's Psychological Impact Sukabdi, Zora A.; Hidayat , Eri R.; Muzayanah, Umi
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.90

Abstract

Trade wars, though driven by economic objectives, had repercussions extending beyond the economy into social and political spheres. Using a qualitative research design, this study examines the connection between the 2025 trade war and the potential rise of violent extremism by interviewing two key groups: former terrorist offenders, who provide insider perspectives, and terrorism analysts, who offer outsider viewpoints on extremist groups. The findings reveal that contemporary extremists can be categorized by ideology, scope, generational cohort, and behavioral patterns. The study further highlights how global economic instability, which leads to local crises, can exacerbate extremism and criminal behavior, particularly within vulnerable communities. This study identifies three classifications of extremists based on their responses to economic crises: “deradicalized”, “exploiters”, and “vulnerable”.
The Use of Remote Sensing Data in Mitigating Forest Fire Threats and Its Impact on National Security Wibowo, Aji Setyo
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.91

Abstract

Forest fires have emerged as a recurring environmental and national security threat, exacerbated by climate change, deforestation, and unsustainable human activities such as slash-and-burn agriculture. These fires result in ecosystem degradation, biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and disruption to health, food security, and local economies. Remote sensing technology, particularly through satellite sensors and drones, offers real-time data for detecting hotspots, tracking smoke dispersion, and assessing post-fire impacts. Tools like MODIS, VIIRS, and Sentinel have proven effective in fire monitoring and mitigation planning. However, limitations in data resolution, weather interference, and policy integration hinder optimal implementation. In Indonesia, the integration of remote sensing into disaster management systems remains fragmented, often resulting in delayed responses and ineffective coordination. Strengthening human resource capabilities, regulatory frameworks, and multi-sector collaboration is essential to leverage this technology fully. Remote sensing thus stands as a critical solution to reduce wildfire risks and their cascading effects on national security, environmental resilience, and public health.
China-US Trade War and the Challenges for Developing Countries Anwar, Ahmad
Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Studi Politik dan Kebijakan Strategis Indonesia (POLKASI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70710/sitj.v3i1.92

Abstract

The US-China trade war signifies a fundamental shift in global economic governance, which has moved beyond a mere tariff dispute to redefine the nature of the strategic environment, particularly for developing countries. This research seeks to explore the vulnerabilities that the US-China trade war imposes on developing countries through three mechanisms: trade diversion that provides asymmetric opportunities based on adaptive capacities, intensification of alignment pressures that require developing countries to deal with competing regulations, and the securitization of their economic dependencies, which transforms supply chain participation into a geopolitical liability. Utilizing a process tracing methodology, this research seeks to analyze the sequences through which tariff escalations and technology restrictions spread across the world, thereby concentrating their dependencies and imposing a new dimension of vulnerability on developing countries. It argues that while developing countries benefit from the production relocation, their overall dependence on the rest of the world has increased, with integration happening within power-contested rather than market-driven frameworks. The US-China trade war, as this research seeks to demonstrate, signifies a structural shift in the nature of the relationship between economic integration and security, with far-reaching implications for developmental autonomy.

Page 7 of 7 | Total Record : 68

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