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INDONESIA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Published by Institut Pertanian Bogor
ISSN : 25990802     EISSN : 25990802     DOI : -
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Mathematics Other
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications (eISSN:2599-0802) (formerly named Forum Statistika dan Komputasi), established since 2017, publishes scientific papers in the area of statistical science and the applications. The published papers should be research papers with, but not limited to, the following topics: experimental design and analysis, survey methods and analysis, operation research, data mining, statistical modeling, computational statistics, time series and econometrics, and statistics education. All papers were reviewed by peer reviewers consisting of experts and academicians across universities and agencies
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 192 Documents
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Study of Spatial Autoregressive Regression With Heteroskedasticity Using the Generalized Method of Moments and Bayesian Approach : Kajian Regresi Spasial Autoregresif dengan Heteroskedastik Menggunakan Generalized Method of Moments dan Pendekatan Bayes Koesnandy H, Abialam; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Farit Mochamad Afendi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i1p58-69

Abstract

Spatial dependence and spatial heteroskedasticity are problems in spatial regression. Spatial autoregressive regression (SAR) concerns only to the dependence on lag. The estimation of SAR parameters containing heteroskedasticity using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method provides biased and inconsistent estimators. The alternative method that can be used are generalized method of moments (GMM) and Bayesian method. GMM uses a combination of linear and quadratic moment functions simultaneously so that the computation is easier than MLE. Bayesian method solves heteroskedasticity by modeling the structure of variance-covariance matrix. The bias are used to evaluate the GMM and Bayes in estimating parameters of SAR model with heteroskedasticity disturbances in simulation data. The results show that GMM and Bayes provides the bias of parameter estimates relatively consistent and smaller with larger number of observations. GMM and Bayes methods are applied to district/city GRDP data in Indonesia. The result show GMM method with Eksponential Distance Weights (EDW) matrix produces the minimum variance and the largest pseudo-R2
Effectiveness of SMOTE-ENN to Reduce Complexity in Classification Model Riantika, Ines; Sartono, Bagus; Anwar Notodiputro, Khairil
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i1p70-82

Abstract

A failure to produce classification models with high performance might be caused by the dataset's characteristics, such as the between-class overlapping and the class imbalance. The higher the data complexity, the more complicated it is for the algorithm to find good models. Combining the issues of class imbalance and overlapping would make the problem more challenging. To deal with this problem, this research implemented a hybrid class-balancing technique named SMOTE-ENN. This technique adds observations to the minority class to balance the class frequencies. After that, it removes some observations to reduce the degree of overlapping. The research revealed that SMOTE-ENN succeeds in doing that. We employed a random forest method to evaluate it. In 28 out of 46 cases we investigated, the new datasets generated by SMOTE-ENN could produce models with higher accuracy.
Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis (MOORA) Method for Decision Support System in Selecting the Best Electric Car: Metode Multi-Objective Optimization by Rasio Analysis (MOORA) Untuk Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Dalam Pemilihan Mobil Listrik Terbaik Humaira, Zakiyah; Ariandi, M. Irfan; Qur’ania, Arie; Puja Negara, Teguh
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p129-131

Abstract

Implementasi metode Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis (MOORA) telah berhasil diterapkan untuk memilih mobil listrik terbaik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implementasi Metode MOORA berhasil merangking untuk 10 jenis mobil listrik dengan 8 jenis kriteria, yaitu: kapasitas baterai, kecepatan pengisian baterai, fitur kenyamanan, fitur keselamatan, jarak tempuh, kecepatan maksimum, harga, dan tenaga. Penerapan algoritma Moora didasarkan pada 4 tahapan, yaitu: penentuan nilai kriteria, penyusunan matriks keputusan, normalisasi dan optimasi atribut, dan penentuan rangking. Hasil penerapan metode MOORA merangking 10 jenis mobil listrik dengan urutan: Toyota BZ 4X, Hyundai ionic 5 2022, Cherry omodo E5 2024, Wuling cloud EV, Vinvost VF5, Nissan leaf 2021, Kia EV5 2023, BYD Dolphin, Wuling binguo EV, Wuling air EV 2022. Ketika terjadi penambahan dan pengurangan kriteria terjadi perubahan perangkingan. Hasil perangkingan mobil listrik terbaik ditampilkan dalam website dengan pemrograman Javascript dan PHP yang memuat tampilan halaman dashboard, halaman kriteria, halaman data, dan halaman perangkingan. Perhitungan pada sistem website telah divalidasi dengan aplikasi Excell menghasilkan akurasi 100%.
Acne Severity Classification Study Using Convolutional Neural Network Algorithm with MobileNetV2 Architecture: Kajian Klasifikasi Tingkat Keparahan Jerawat Menggunakan Algoritma Convolutional Neural Network Ramadhani, Faadiyah; Rahardiantoro, Septian; Masjkur, Mohammad
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p112-128

Abstract

Data classification is a key technique in machine learning that maps patterns and features of input data into a target class. Significant developments in data classification occur in deep learning with neural networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) that are able to extract image features automatically. CNN can classify the level of a condition based on image data, one of which is the severity of acne. Acne (acne vulgaris) is a common skin disease with varying severity. This study aims to apply the CNN MobileNetV2 model to classify acne severity based on acne input images. The data consists of 1457 acne images at 4 severity levels divided into 80% training data and 20% test data. MobileNetV2 was used as a feature extractor through transfer learning. Fine-tuning and classification were performed using fully connected layers with ReLU and softmax activation functions. The model was evaluated with a confusion matrix and classification report. The model with a combination of hyperparameter batch size 16 and a learning rate of 0.00001 was the best model that achieved 87.29% accuracy with 89% precision, 84% recall, and 86% F1 score for classifying acne severity.
Comparison Between SARIMA and DeepAR with Optuna Hyperparameter Optimization for Estimating Rice Production Data in Indonesia Zahid, Muhammad Farhan; Fitrianto, Anwar; Silvianti, Pika; Alamudi, Aam
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p95-111

Abstract

Forecast is a prediction of future events that had taken a significant role in our society especially when facing time-sensitive issues like food availability. Food is a critical aspect in ensuring people's welfare, especially in a country like Indonesia with a large population. Availability and access to rice are a vital need for the people of Indonesia. Rice is not only the main source of carbohydrates, but also has a central role in the cultural and social aspects of Indonesian society. Forecasting can be a strategy to anticipate fluctuations in food demand and supply. Forecasting can be an important instrument for the government and stakeholders to make the right and effective decisions. The growing period of rice which is heavily influenced by seasonality makes DeepAR and SARIMA techniques a good solution to solve this problem. Both methods offer the ability to address features in rice production such as trends, seasonality, and anomaly effects. This study demonstrates that DeepAR, especially when optimized with Optuna, outperforms SARIMA in forecasting rice production in Indonesia, as evidenced by superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Handling Unbalanced Data with SMOTE Algorithm for Unemployment Classification in Lima Puluh Kota Regency Using CART Method Aldwi Riandhoko; Amalita, Nonong; Vionanda, Dodi; Salma, Admi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p166-177

Abstract

Unemployment is a problem that occurs in the labor force, where high unemployment is caused by the low ability of the labor force. A region that is still experiencing unemployment problems in West Sumatera is Lima Puluh Kota Regency. Unemployment in Lima Puluh Kota Regency is caused by the low competence of human resources to fulfill employment market requirements. Based on the results of the Sakernas survey in August 2023, Lima Puluh Kota Regency has more employed labor force than unemployed labor force, so this results in unbalanced data. A method that can overcome unbalanced data is Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). SMOTE is a technique with addition of synthetic data in minority class so that the proportion is balanced. Data imbalance conditions need to be handled so as to improve the performance of the classification model. Classification and Regression Trees (CART) is a classification technique with a decision tree method that can obtain the characteristics of a classification. The purpose of this research is to compare the CART model before and after applying SMOTE which can be measured by comparing the highest Area Under Curve (AUC) value. The AUC value in the CART method before SMOTE applied has a value of 62.1% while the AUC value in the CART method after SMOTE applied has a value of 70.2%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the CART classification analysis after SMOTE applied is able to provide better performance compared to the CART classification analysis before SMOTE applied.
Implementation of Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm for Clustering Provinces in Indonesia Based on Micro and Small Industry Ratio in Village Areas Rahmanesta, Frandito; Martha, Zamahsary; Vionanda, Dodi; Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p178-190

Abstract

Post-economic crisis, the micro and small industries contribute the most labor compared to other industries. Regional development sourced from small micro industries is a strategic force in developing a country because the development of small micro industries leads to realizing equitable welfare to reduce income inequality. Development in village areas is an important factor for regional development, reducing inequality between regions, and alleviating poverty. However, based on the 2018 PODES survey, there are regional imbalances in Indonesia in the small micro industry which is centralized on Java Island. Therefore, clustering and characteristics of the province were carried out based on the PODES survey of the small micro industry sector. This research uses the Fuzzy C-Means algorithm to cluster 34 provinces in Indonesia based on the ratio of small micro industries in village areas in 2021, to see how the development of small micro industries in village areas in each province in Indonesia. Fuzzy C-Means is one of the data clustering techniques that uses a fuzzy clustering model, where cluster formation is based on a membership degree value that varies between 0 and 1. The Fuzzy C-Means algorithm generates 4 clusters, cluster 1 and 2 represents provinces with high and very high micro and small industry development in village areas and cluster 3 and 4 represents provinces with medium and low micro and small industry development in village areas. The Fuzzy C-Means algorithm produces a good cluster structure with a silhouette coefficient value of 0,6406.
Comparison of K-Means and K-Medoids in Clustering Regency/City in West Sumatra Province Based on Environmental Indicators Robiati, Silfi; Fitria, Dina; Vionanda, Dodi; Sulistiowati, Dwi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p191-201

Abstract

The Environmental Quality Index is an index that describes the condition of environmental management results nationally, and generalises from all regencies/cities and provinces in Indonesia. Although the Environmental Quality Index of West Sumatra Province has increased, there are still regencies/cities in West Sumatra Province have decreasing Environmental Quality Index. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct further analysis, one of which is to form a group of regencies/cities into a group according to their similarities or characteristics. This study aims to compare the K-Means and K-Medoids methods in grouping regencies/cities in West Sumatra Province based on environmental quality indicators in 2023. The data used in this research is secondary data, which is orginally the publication of Central Bureau of Statistics namely Sumatera Barat Dalam Angka in 2024. The research compares the K-Means cluster method and the K-Medoids cluster method. It concludes K-Means better than K-Medoids methods based on DB index with three clusters. First cluster has 12 regencies/cities with a high average air quality index, the second cluster has 6 regencies/cities that have small amounts of waste, and the third cluster has 1 city with a high average water quality index and land quality index, but a large amount of waste.   Keywords: Cluster, Comparison, Environmental, K-Means, K-Medoids
Sentiment Classification on the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Candidate Dataset Using Deep Learning Approaches Suhaeni, Cici; Wijayanto, Hari; Kurnia, Anang
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p83-94

Abstract

This study aims to compare the performance of three deep learning models (LSTM, BiLSTM, and GRU) in the task of sentiment classification for the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Candidate dataset, focusing specifically on the case of Prabowo Subianto. The dataset comprises social media X posts sourced from kaggle, and the analysis investigates the effectiveness of different variants of recurrent neural network architectures in identifying public sentiment. The models were evaluated on accuracy and F1 score. The results demonstrate that BiLSTM outperformed both LSTM and GRU models in all metrics, achieving a testing accuracy of 80.70% and an F1 score of 86.86%, compared to LSTM and GRU which both achieved a testing accuracy of 72.56% and an F1 score of approximately 84%. The higher performance of BiLSTM is attributed to its ability to capture bidirectional context within the text, thereby understanding complex sentiment patterns more effectively. LSTM and GRU models displayed similar performance, therefore BiLSTM is the best model for this dataset. These results indicate that BiLSTM is especially well-suited for analyzing public sentiment towards political figures like Prabowo Subianto, offering significant insights into public discussions surrounding the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election. This study recommends exploring transformer-based models like BERT or GPT variants to enhance sentiment classification accuracy in this domain.
Classification of Drinking Water Source Suitability in West Java Using XGBoost and Cluster Analysis Based on SHAP Values: Klasifikasi Kelayakan Sumber Air Minum di Jawa Barat Menggunakan XGBoost dan Analisis Klasterisasi Berdasarkan Nilai SHAP Sari, Annisa Permata; Billy; Tsaqif, Denanda Aufadlan; Sartono, Bagus; Firdawanti, Aulia Rizki
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, IPB University, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p202-214

Abstract

Water is essential for meeting the basic needs of living organisms. In Indonesia, ensuring safe and quality drinking water is crucial for public health. However, in some regions, particularly in West Java Province, people still rely on unsuitable water sources, which can negatively impact health. The classification of water source suitability can be achieved using machine learning, such as the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. XGBoost with feature selection is effective in improving prediction accuracy and minimizing overfitting. This study evaluates the performance of the XGBoost model in classifying household drinking water sources in West Java and uses the K-Means algorithm for cluster SHAP values to identify key characteristics of households with safe drinking water. The results show that the XGBoost model, with an accuracy of 77.43% and an F1-Score of 80.17%, successfully classified 4187 households, with 2349 having safe drinking water and 1838 having unsuitable sources. SHAP value analysis identified location, water collection time, and monthly per capita expenditure as significant factors influencing water source suitability. Households with water sources inside the house's fence, a short water collection time, and high monthly per capita expenditure tend to have safe drinking water sources. There are 4 clusters formed, with cluster 1 and cluster 3 needing immediate quality of drinking water sources improvement with cluster 2 as an indicator of success. Cluster 4 consists of households with high expenditure, marking it as a potential household for the government to make water quality improvements.

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