Articles
21 Documents
<![CDATA[Cryptocurrency Modeling and Price Prediction Using Markov Switching Autoregressive Model ]]>
<![CDATA[Patricia Juan Aurellia]]>;
<![CDATA[David Kaluge]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024): September 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i2.2149
<![CDATA[The emergence of cryptocurrency investment trends has brought the number of registered customers for crypto assets in Indonesia to surpass the number of investors in the capital market. Despite the continuous increase in the number of cryptocurrency investors, a different scenario is depicted by the declining transaction values. This decrease is attributed to the high volatile nature of cryptocurrency coins, which impacts investors’ investment decisions. This research aims to obtain the best model and forecasts related to cryptocurrency prices in order to minimize concerns and potential losses experienced by investors. This research uses the closing price of the five largest market capitalized cryptocurrency coins. The research utilized the Markov Switching Autoregressive method to capture structural changes in the data, allowing it to be used for forecasting. The research findings indicate that the best model for BTC is MS(3)AR(1), the model for BNB is MS(3)AR(1), the model for ETH is MS(3)AR(1), the model for XRP is MS(3)AR(2), and the model for ADA is MS(3)AR(2). The RMSE values indicate that BTC is the coin with the most accurate price prediction compared to other coins.]]>
<![CDATA[Economic Valuation of Traditional Mining Crude Oil in Wonocolo Village ]]>
<![CDATA[Suryanto, Suryanto]]>;
<![CDATA[Gusti Pramono, Maulidika]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024): September 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i2.2522
<![CDATA[This research aims to identify the mining activities of crude oil resources in Wonocolo Village. The government will identify the benefits and impacts of already-known activities will be identified from this activity. Economic valuation analysis calculates These benefits and impacts in monetary terms. The aim is to find out the monetary value of benefits and impact so that they can be used to develop a related policy. The primary and secondary data are collected through interviews and observation. The sampling method uses purposive sampling, and the research method is quantitative descriptive using analysis techniques in the form of economic valuation. The results of this study indicate that the economic valuation of the traditional mining activities of crude oil resources in Wonocolo Village has a positive Rp value. 33.214.795.622,-/year. This positive value is because the value of benefits is greater than the impacts they are Rp. 33.478.992.562,-/year and Rp. 273.196.940,./year.]]>
<![CDATA[Additional Measurement for Financial Inclusion Indexing and its Impact of Economic Growth in Selected ASEAN Countries ]]>
<![CDATA[Wardhono, Adhitya]]>;
<![CDATA[Yaqin, Misbahol]]>;
<![CDATA[Indrawati , Yulia]]>;
<![CDATA[Nasir, M. Abd.]]>;
<![CDATA[Qori'ah, Ciplis Gema]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.2627
<![CDATA[Financial inclusion is an important strategy in economic development. This study aims to measure the level of financial inclusion and examine the effect on economic growth in Selected ASEAN Countries. Empirically, the study uses panel data in the form of annual data during the years 2005-2021. Some of the variables used are financial inclusion, GDP, inflation, and unemployment. The method used in this research is Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR). The results of the calculation of the financial inclusion index find that Indonesia's financial inclusion is in the middle category, Malaysia is in the high category, Thailand is in the high category and the Philippines is in a low category. IRF results from PVAR analysis show that financial inclusion has a positive influence on economic growth. This indicates that there is a need for incentives to encourage the growth of financial inclusion so that it is expected to accelerate the pace of economic growth.]]>
<![CDATA[Analysis of Factors Influenching Economic Growth in Indonesia 2014 - 2018 ]]>
<![CDATA[Setiawan, Dedy]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.3087
<![CDATA[It is essential to build more equitable economic growth, which reflects the increased role of regions and the empowerment of all people, by focusing on the efficiency and sustainability of the use of natural resources and the living environment. The study explores factors that influence economic growth, such as exports, imports, investments, and labor wages, to identify the most influential aspects in boosting economic growth in Indonesia between 2014 and 2018. This research uses a literature review analysis tool to analyse the factors that influenced economic growth in Indonesia during the 2014–2018 period. By referring to various relevant literature sources, we evaluated and synthesised the main findings related to Indonesia's economic growth during that period. Research results show that exports have a positive impact on economic growth, while imports have no significant impact. Investments also do not have a significant impact on economic growth, while wages have a positive impact on economic growth. Thus, the study shows that exports and labor wages played an important role in Indonesia's economic growth between 2014 and 2018.]]>
<![CDATA[Determinants of the poor household decision to own Micro-Small Enterprise (MSEs) ]]>
<![CDATA[Prijanto, Whinarko Juli]]>;
<![CDATA[Sugiharti, Rr. Retno]]>;
<![CDATA[Khabibah, Nibras Anny]]>;
<![CDATA[Astutik, Erni Puji]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.3160
<![CDATA[Household empowerment is an effort to increase family income, especially for poor households. Entrepreneurial activities in the household are expected to encourage independence and social mobility in poor households. This novel research analysed the decision-making behaviour of households owning a business through the probability function of micro and small business owners in poor households in Magelang City. The study will have implications for the design of policy planning related to poverty alleviation, especially regarding increasing entrepreneurship in poor households. Using the 2019 SUSEE database obtained from the Government of Magelang, this study can be concluded that the higher the age and education of the head of a household the greater the opportunity to decide to own a business. The main factor that encourages poor households to own a business is the ease of access to capital. The research findings show that households that have access to credit are proven to be more motivated to own a business. In addition, the more dominant family members have cell phones, the more likely a household is to own a business. From this research, the policy implications that can be carried out are intensifying and ease of providing business capital for micro-enterprises, providing training and coaching, especially in starting businesses for poor households based on simple technology. Owning MSEs has the potential and opportunity to improve the welfare of poor households through business ownership in the form of micro and small businesses.]]>
<![CDATA[Measuring the intensity of smoking behavior among beneficiaries of subsidized health insurance: Item Response Theory (IRT) Analysis ]]>
<![CDATA[maulida, rizki wibias anwar]]>;
<![CDATA[Nasrudin, Rus'an]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024): September 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i2.4551
<![CDATA[The absence of sufficient income leaves the impoverished and near-poor particularly susceptible to economic shocks, yet they encounter significant barriers in accessing the health insurance market. The government introduced the Health Premium Assistance for the Poor and Near-Poor (Askeskin) program on January 1, 2005, to address this issue. However, individuals with lower socioeconomic status are disproportionately likely to smoke. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct screening and assess smoking intensity, particularly among those facing economic hardships, to effectively address smoking behavior. To assess the severity of smoking habits among beneficiaries of subsidized health insurance (Askeskin), this study utilized data from the IFLS survey and applied Item Response Theory (IRT). IRT facilitates the development of highly precise measurement tools that accurately capture variations in an individual's health and well-being. The findings indicate that this scale serves as a suitable instrument for examining heavy smoking intensity in research endeavors, particularly within the Indonesian context.]]>
<![CDATA[Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Indonesia: Role of Human Capital and Trade Openness ]]>
<![CDATA[Setiyanto, Aris]]>;
<![CDATA[Fitrady, Ardyanto]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.5581
<![CDATA[This study examines FDI – economic growth nexus in Indonesia throughout 1970 to 2019. It also focuses on analyzing whether FDI-human capital and FDI-trade openness complement each other to enhance economic growth. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), the study find cointegrated relationship between FDI and economic growth. Specifically, the interaction between FDI and human capital is statistically non-significant to long-term growth. However, interestingly FDI and trade openness complement each other to encourage long-term growth. From the policy perspective, this study supports the improvement of the quality of human capital to enhance the benefits of a foreign presence in the economy and further reforms in the trade sector to enhance long-term growth in Indonesia.]]>
<![CDATA[Analyzing Sustainable Development in Indonesia Based on Environmental Kuznet Curve ]]>
<![CDATA[Yanuarti, Wella Amalia]]>;
<![CDATA[Rachmawati, Lucky]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.5584
<![CDATA[Sustainable development is long term development with economic, social, and environmental aspects. Development in Indonesia is a trade off in which an increase in income will increase degradasi environemntal. This research use the EKC theory that connects aspects of economic growth to the environment represented by CO2. The VECM analysis technique is used to see the cointegration of short and long term relationships. In the short term it show that GDP, GDP2 has significant effect on CO2, while HDI has no effect. The results of this studi show that EKC curve is rejected in a U-shape so that sustainable development is weak. In the long term GDP, GDP2, and HDI have significat effect on CO2. The result of the show support for the EKC theory with an inverted U-shaped curve in the long run so that sustainable development is strong. It show that Indonesia is a country whose economic growth depends on energy consumption. This study provides an overview of government policies to reduce carbon dioxide gas with a tax holidays for FDI to encourage green industries, encourage renewable energy sources. Within the scope of education provides an environment-based learning curriculum.]]>
<![CDATA[Knowledge and Culture-Based Development Policy Scenarios Using the PROMETHEE Method ]]>
<![CDATA[Nizar, Nefo Indra]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.5613
<![CDATA[Knowledge and culture-based development is carried out by relying on knowledge and cultural resources as development capital. Development policy scenarios are needed to carry out development programs. Some of the development programs outlined in the national development plan are strengthening economic resilience for quality and equitable growth, reducing income inequality and alleviating poverty, as well as increasing competitiveness. The purpose of this study is to determine the priority scale based on economic development policy scenarios on the basis of knowledge and cultural resources in Indonesia. The research method is MCDA decision analysis (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis) with the PROMETHEE method (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation). PROMETHEE is a sequencing method based on a binary relationship between two or more alternatives. Meanwhile, to calculate the score of each program and development objectives, the primary component analysis technique is used. The data used is secondary data which is mostly sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The results of the research show that the knowledge and culture-based development scenarios based on the sequence are as follows. First, strengthening economic resilience and increasing GRDP per capita. Second, increasing competitiveness, and third is reducing income inequality and the number of the poor.]]>
<![CDATA[Analysis of Bed Availability and COVID-19 Deaths Relationship in Jakarta ]]>
<![CDATA[Refina Muthia Sundari]]>;
<![CDATA[Dartanto, Teguh]]>;
<![CDATA[Dharmawan, Goldy F.]]>
<![CDATA[ JEJAK Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Semarang ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v17i1.5617
<![CDATA[The surge in COVID-19 cases that hit Indonesia in May – July 2021 led to a decline in the capacity of the health system. It was reflected by an increase in the national Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) percentage of more than 60%, where DKI Jakarta had the highest percentage of BOR among all provinces, reaching 85%. The death rate also soared at 256 deaths per day. The government responded this incident by continuing to increase the bed capacity, so BOR percentage could be decreased in order to preventing a higher death rate. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze how the impact of increasing bed capacity on deaths from COVID-19. This study estimates 511 time series data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. As a result, the addition bed capacity had a negative association with COVID-19 deaths. The increase in overall bed capacity, ICU bed capacity, and isolation bed capacity could reduce deaths of COVID-19 by 22.5%, 17.3% and 22.7%, respectively.]]>
