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Simulation Of The Volcanic Ash Dispersion During The June 2019 Sinabung Eruption Rista Hernandi Virgianto; Alia Rahmi Nasution
Jambura Geoscience Review Vol 3, No 2 (2021): Jambura Geoscience Review (JGEOSREV)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jgeosrev.v3i2.10388

Abstract

The eruption of Sinabung on June 9, 2019, was categorized as a red code in the warning report for flights. Volcanic ash from volcanic eruptions is a serious threat in the world of aviation with the most dangerous ash particles are 6-10 μm and 37 μm in diameter. To enrich our understanding and modeling performances of the volcanic ash dispersion for the Sinabung eruption case, it is necessary to simulate the dispersion of volcanic ash in those particular sizes to see its distribution which can impact flight routes. The method used was the analysis of the direction and dispersion of the particular volcanic ash using Weather Research Forecast-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and compared it with the volcanic ash warning information on flight routes issued by Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC)-Darwin. In general, WRF-Chem can simulate the distribution of volcanic ash from the eruption of Sinabung at the two-particle sizes at different heights, and found the difference in the distribution direction of the two groups of the particle sizes. Comparison results with warning information from VAAC-Darwin and previous study, WRF-Chem simulation shows a good concordance in the dispersion direction.
ANALISIS KONSENTRASI PM2.5 SELAMA PENYELENGGARAAN ASIAN GAMES KE-18 DI JAKARTA Rista Hernandi Virgianto; Dzikrullah Akbar
STATMAT : JURNAL STATISTIKA DAN MATEMATIKA Vol 1, No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Math Program, Math and Science faculty, Pamulang University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (520.253 KB) | DOI: 10.32493/sm.v1i1.2370

Abstract

Kualitas udara yang baik sangat penting bagi kesehatan masyarakat. Kualitas udara selama ajang Asian Games ke-18 di Jakarta menjadi masalah internasional yang sangat mempengaruhi reputasi Jakarta. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan kualitas udara di Jakarta selama acara Asian Games ke-18 berdasarkan konsentrasi PM2.5. Data pengamatan diambil dari dua titik, di Jakarta Pusat dan Jakarta Selatan. Uji U Mann-Whitney sebagai tes non-parametrik digunakan untuk menentukan perubahan signifikan dalam konsentrasi PM2.5 sebelum, selama dan setelah acara Asian Games ke-18. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa konsentrasi rata-rata PM2.5 sebelum Asian Games ke-18 di Jakarta Selatan adalah 67,9 μg/m3 yang melebihi ambang batas. Semua hasil tes menunjukkan bahwa ada perubahan yang signifikan dalam konsentrasi PM2.5 untuk semua periode di kedua titik pengamatan. Penurunan konsentrasi yang mencolok antara periode sebelum dan sesudah Asian Games ke-18 terjadi pada hari Selasa di kedua titik pengamatan. Sedangkan penurunan konsentrasi terendah terjadi pada hari Minggu di Jakarta Pusat dan Jumat di Jakarta Selatan
Inovasi Model Prediksi Titik Api Menggunakan Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) pada Wilayah Lahan Gambut Provinsi Riau Hermanto A. Nainggolan; Burhanudin; Dina Whiri Muslihah; Rista Hernandi Virgianto
Buletin GAW Bariri Vol 1 No 1 (2020): BULETIN GAW BARIRI
Publisher : Stasiun Pemantau Atmosfer Global Lore Lindu Bariri - Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (892.887 KB) | DOI: 10.31172/bgb.v1i1.6

Abstract

Riau Province, which has a peatland area of ​​5.09 million hectares or 56.42% of the area of ​​peatlands on the island of Sumatra, is one of the provinces in Indonesia which has the greatest potential for forest fires to devastate hundreds of hectares of forest and gardens and increase home gas emissions glass in the atmosphere. Forest fires that occur are closely related to Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) or consecutive days without rain (HTH) which result in low humidity, thereby affecting the potential for hotspots to emerge, especially around peatlands. CDD, which is the result of the accumulation of the amount of HTH in one period between rainy day events, is calculated using CMORPH precipitation data (CPC MORPHing technique). Hotspot data is obtained from NOAA and Hotspot event data with a confidence level of more than 70% in the eastern region of Riau province where there is a peatland. The probability of a Hotspot occurring is calculated based on the CDD for each grid that will produce a CDD value with a significant probability for the occurrence of a Hotspot on the grid each month. The level of density of Hotspots in each season period with a high category is in the JJA and MAM periods. An early warning system for the emergence of a Hotspot based on the level of Hotspot and CDD density is carried out the day before the opportunity arises with a value less than or equal to 0.5. With an average CDD value for early warning in MAM is 13 days and in JJA is eight days. This research is expected to be able to be applied in early warning of forest and land fires in Riau.
Analisis Heat Stress saat Kondisi El – Niño, La – Niña, dan Netral di Wilayah Jakarta dan Sekitarnya Periode 1993 – 2018 Muhamad Fajri Zulkifar; Santy Wulandari; Rista Hernandi Virgianto
Buletin GAW Bariri Vol 1 No 1 (2020): BULETIN GAW BARIRI
Publisher : Stasiun Pemantau Atmosfer Global Lore Lindu Bariri - Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1271.241 KB) | DOI: 10.31172/bgb.v1i1.9

Abstract

Jakarta and its surroundings areas that have high surface temperatures due to high total CO2 emissions. High CO2 emissions will cause surface temperatures to increase due to the phenomenon of greenhouse gases. An increase in temperature will also have an impact on increasing heat strs which will be dangerous if no steps are taken for prevention. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) factor is also considered influential in terms of the value of heat stress. Calculating heat stress in Jakarta and surrounding areas can be done by the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature Index (WBGT) method. Data was obtained from six station points in Jakarta and surrounding areas in 1993 – 2018 consisting of daily air temperature and humidity and using Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data to determine the ENSO period. The results show that the highest WBGT were identified in four regions, Tanjung priok, Kemayoran, Cengkareng and South Tangerang with ISBB values ​​of 30 – 32.5 (the heat stress increases to dangerous levels), while for the other two, Curug and Dramaga Bogor have WBGT values at 28.5 – 30 (heat stress increases). The most dangerous WBGT category was in Tanjung priok in April during El – Niño with 71% (58) days were in the dangerous category, while the WBGT category had the least heat stress at Dramaga in August when it was neutral with 17.7% (66) days were in the no heat stress category. When El-Niño ISBB was higher than when it is neutral and La-Niña and has higher minimum and maximum extreme values than when it is neutral and La – Niña.
A numerical simulation of PM2.5 concentration using the WRF-Chem model during a high air pollution episode in 2019 in Jakarta, Indonesia Rista Hernandi Virgianto; Rayhan Rivaniputra; Nanda Putri Kinanti; Agung Hari Saputra; Aulia Nisaul Khoir
International Journal of Advances in Applied Sciences Vol 11, No 4: December 2022
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (860.751 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/ijaas.v11.i4.pp335-344

Abstract

Jakarta, as a megapolitan city, is always crowded with thousands of vehicles every day which results in decreased air quality due to combustion emissions and may have a significant impact on human health. Particulate matter (PM2.5) is a pollutant that has an aerodynamic diameter of fewer than 2.5 micrometers and is very easy to enter the human respiratory system so it can affect health. In the dry season, rain as the main natural mechanism for reducing PM2.5 occurs very rarely, causing an accumulation of PM2.5 concentrations in the atmosphere. The weather research and forecasting model coupled with the chemistry (WRF-Chem) model is a dynamic model that works with atmospheric chemistry combined with meteorological variables simultaneously. This study aims to simulate the concentration of PM2.5 in Jakarta during the high air pollution episode from 20 to 29 June 2019 with the WRF-Chem model based on the T1-MOZCART chemical scheme. Spatial analysis was conducted to determine the distribution of PM2.5 concentrations during high air pollution episodes in Jakarta. Validation of the simulation model was based on three observation sites, one in South Jakarta and two in Central Jakarta. The results showed that the highest correlation is 0.3 and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) is 26.4, while the simulations still tend to overestimate the PM2.5 concentration.
Potensi Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue Berdasarkan Skenario Perubahan Iklim RCP4.5 di Kabupaten Badung,Bali Fendiarni Luthfi Maghfiroh; Fendy Arifianto; Rista Hernandi Virgianto
Jurnal Vektor Penyakit Vol 16 No 1 (2022): Edisi Juni
Publisher : Balai Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan Donggala, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan, Kementerian Kesehatan RI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22435/vektorp.v16i1.5708

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate factors influence the breeding of the Aedes aegypti mosquito which is the vector that causes the Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence. This vector can be increasing with climate change as a result of global warming. This study aims to determine the potential distribution of DHF in Badung Regency based on climate factors and its projections using the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. This research in the historical period for the years 2010 – 2019 and the projection period for the years 2021 – 2030 and the years 2031 – 2040. The fuzzy logic model is used to get the output of the potential for DHF incidence which is described by the IR value of DHF based on the climate conditions in the study period. The data used include secondary data on average climate parameters; rainfall, air temperature, and relative humidity in 2010 – 2019, RCP4.5 scenario in 2010 – 2040, and annual DHF Incident Rate (IR) for the period 2010 – 2019. The results showed that in historical and projection periods the rainfall, air temperature, and relative humidity average have optimal values ​​for the breeding of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that cause DHF with IR > 55 in all areas of Badung Regency. The potential for DHF incidence in the projection period did not change from the historical period. In addition, the projection period saw an increased rainfall and air temperature average compared to the historical period. Meanwhile, the humidity average in the projection period did not change significantly compared to the historical period. ABSTRAK Faktor iklim yang memberikan pengaruh terhadap perkembangbiakan nyamuk Aedes aegypti yang menjadi vektor penyebab kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD). Vektor ini dapat meningkat dengan adanya perubahan iklim dampak dari pemanasan global. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui sebaran potensi kejadian DBD di Kabupaten Badung berdasarkan faktor iklim dan perkiraannya menggunakan skenario perubahan iklim RCP4.5. Penelitian dilakukan pada periode historis tahun 2010 – 2019 dan periode perkiraan tahun 2021 – 2030 serta tahun 2031 – 2040. Model logika fuzzy digunakan untuk mendapatkan outputPotensi kejadian DBD yang digambarkan dengan nilai IR DBD berdasarkan kondisi iklim pada periode penelitian. Data yang digunakan meliputi data rata-rata parameter iklim curah hujan, suhu udara, dan kelembapan observasi tahun 2010 – 2019, data skenario RCP4.5 tahun 2010 - 2040, dan data Insidence Rate (IR) DBD tahunan periode 2010 – 2019. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai rata-rata curah hujan, suhu udara, dan kelembapan pada periode historis maupun periode penilaian memiliki nilai optimal untuk perkembangbiakan nyamuk Aedes aegyptiyang menyebabkan kejadian DBD dengan IR > 55 di seluruh wilayah Kabupaten Badung. Potensi kejdian DBD pada periode perkiraan tidak mengalami perubahan dari periode historis. Selain itu, pada periode terlihat adanya peningkatan rata-rata curah hujan dan suhu udara dibandingkan dengan periode historis.
The Impact of Climate Change on Cooling Energy Demand in Indonesia Based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) Scenarios Desak Putu Okta Veanti; Rista Hernandi Virgianto; I Gusti Ayu Putu Putri Astiduari
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 7 No. 1 (2022): January
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1676.644 KB) | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2022.7.1.9-16

Abstract

Air conditioning system in a building is necessary to maintain air temperature at a certain comfort level, especially in tropical coun- tries such as Indonesia. Global warming was believed to accelerate the increase in energy consumption for air conditioning as a consequence of rising surface temperatures. This study aims to quantify the changes in energy consumption used for air condi- tioning systems based on Cooling Degree Days (CDD) that is calculated from the daily average temperature in Indonesia based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Projections for the future scenarios is compared with the energy consumptions in 2010. The results showed that energy consumptions increase up to 10 kWh/m2 year in 2030 for both scenarios. In 2050 RCP4.5 shows slightly higher Ew than RCP8.5 in some regions. However, in 2100, RCP8.5 shows significantly higher energy consumption for air conditioning sys- tem. The eastern part of Middle Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Southern part of East Kalimantan, Northern East Java, Northern part of Lampung, South Sumatera, and Southern part of Papua shows the highest changes (51 to 68 kWh/m2 year)
THE ANALYSIS OF LAPSE RATE PROFILE IN THE SITE CANDIDATE OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (NPP) AT GOSONG BEACH, BENGKAYANG REGENCY– WEST KALIMANTAN Deni Septiadi; Agung Hari Saputra; Rista Hernandi Virgianto; Arif Yuniarto; Muhammad Elifant Yuggotomo
Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Nuklir Indonesia (Indonesian Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology) Vol 23, No 1 (2022): February 2022
Publisher : HIMNI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17146/jstni.2022.23.1.6578

Abstract

The lapse rate profile in the site candidate for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) at Gosong Beach Bengkayang, has been investigated to obtain a description of the lability of the atmosphere and upper air as part of a meteorological aspect safety study in the plan to develop a NPP site. The study of the lapse rate was carried out using air data on the reanalysis of the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) by extracting air temperature data at each altitude level so as to obtain a lapse rate of up to 25 km. Daily data was processed during 2021 and transformed in the monthly average profile data to describe the lapse rate profile in January – December 2021. Tropopause was identified with average altitude about 16.6 km and stratosphere at 20.5 km with a lapse rate about -0.21 ℃/100 m. The surface layer to 200 m have lapse rate from 0.7 ℃/100 m - 0.9 ℃/100 m at 00.00 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) and 0.5 ℃/100 m -0.6 ℃/100 m at 12.00 UTC
Estimasi Konsentrasi PM10 Menggunakan Support Vector Regression Zia Ayu Frakusya; Rista Hernandi Virgianto; Muhammad Elifant Yuggotomo
JRST (Jurnal Riset Sains dan Teknologi) Volume 6 No. 1 Maret 2022: JRST
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1146.347 KB) | DOI: 10.30595/jrst.v6i1.8977

Abstract

PM10 berkontribusi terhadap polusi udara pada saat kejadian kabut asap di musim kemarau dengan salah satu sumber utamanya adalah pembakaran biomassa. Pada saat musim kemarau, terdapat banyak kegiatan pembersihan lahan di Mempawah untuk persiapan masa tanam yang Sebagian besar dilakukan dengan pembakaran sisa tanaman. Sebagai salah satu polutan utama yang dapat memengaruhi kesehatan manusia, maka estimasi konsentrasi PM10 sangat penting untuk dilakukan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk melakukan estimasi konsentrasi PM10 di Mempawah tahun 2019 menggunakan Support Vector Regression (SVR) berdasarkan data PM10 dan variabel meteorologi seperti curah hujan, kelembaban, suhu, tekanan permukaan laut dan kecepatan angin dari Stasiun Klimatologi Mempawah dengan periode latih tahun 2016 hingga 2018. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa estimasi konsentrasi PM10 menggunakan SVR berdasarkan parameter cuaca dapat menggambarkan variabilitas konsentrasi harian PM10 di Mempawah dengan baik, terkecuali saat terjadi kenaikan konsentrasi yang sangat tinggi yang mungkin dipengaruhi oleh faktor antropogenik. Selain itu, berdasarkan verifikasi, RMSE yang dihasilkan model estimasi hampir sama dengan nilai standar deviasi observasinya. 
Pemetaan Tipe Iklim Oldeman Tahun 2022-2100 Berdasarkan Skenario SSP5-8.5 Model ACCESS-CM2 Aqasha Raechan Anam; Alif Putra Cakra; Wildan Auliya Azka Wardoyo; Sopia Mince Asary; Rista Hernandi Virgianto
JIPFRI (Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Fisika dan Riset Ilmiah) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2023): May Edition
Publisher : Universitas Nurul Huda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30599/jipfri.v7i1.2046

Abstract

Climate change is part of the most serious problem for the life of the world community today. One sector that is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change is the agricultural sector. One method that can be used is to see a picture of the future climate by making climate projections based on certain scenarios. The data used in this study are monthly rainfall data at 4 observation points of BMKG stations as well as Historical and Projection model data from the SSP5-8.5 ACCES-CM2 model scenario at 36 points in the West Java region taken from Copernicus ECMWF at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/. The results showed that a comparison of Oldeman's classification based on the 2 projection data used showed differences, namely for SSP2-4.5 data it was more categorical in class D while for SSP5-8.5 data the classification was in class C except for the period 2071-2100 for SSP2-4.5 data showing classification in class B. It can be said that in the West Java region rice can be planted once based on SSP2-4.5 data and twice based on SSP5-8.5 data.