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Journal : Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education

Comparison of Holt and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in The Forecast of Moving Price for Mutual Funds Muchayan, Achmad
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (613.08 KB) | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1167

Abstract

Mutual funds are one of the promising investment media where the risk is directly proportional to the size of investment growth. With proper forecasting of NAV price movements will greatly help investors to make purchases and sales transactions, therefore the authors offer the use of two different forecasting methods namely Brown's method and Holt method in double exponential smoothing to get predictions of NAV price movements. The effectiveness of the use of the method will be measured from the value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). From the calculation results obtained by the data that the Holt method produces forecasting for 1809,657 with the best α value of 0.6 and MAPE of 0.644373568, while for the Holt method obtained forecasting value of 1810,924 with the α value and the best β value of 0.9 and 0.1 and the smaller MAPE value of 0.61604262 . Looking at the amount of MAPE generated, the Holt method has a smaller forecasting error rate when compared to Brown’s method.
Comparison of Holt and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in The Forecast of Moving Price for Mutual Funds Achmad Muchayan
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (613.08 KB) | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1167

Abstract

Mutual funds are one of the promising investment media where the risk is directly proportional to the size of investment growth. With proper forecasting of NAV price movements will greatly help investors to make purchases and sales transactions, therefore the authors offer the use of two different forecasting methods namely Brown's method and Holt method in double exponential smoothing to get predictions of NAV price movements. The effectiveness of the use of the method will be measured from the value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). From the calculation results obtained by the data that the Holt method produces forecasting for 1809,657 with the best α value of 0.6 and MAPE of 0.644373568, while for the Holt method obtained forecasting value of 1810,924 with the α value and the best β value of 0.9 and 0.1 and the smaller MAPE value of 0.61604262 . Looking at the amount of MAPE generated, the Holt method has a smaller forecasting error rate when compared to Brown’s method.
Implementation of the Early Warning Application Program for Pregnant Women to Support Health Services in Rural Areas Kamisutara, Made; Muchayan, Achmad; Artaya, I Putu; IGA. Sri Deviyanti
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 5 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1653

Abstract

The development process of digital technology has affected many fields. One of them is health field. Number of health application appears. They can be accessed easily by smartphone or tablet device. For instance, in developed countries, doctors examine and diagnose children's ears using smartphone. He provides the appropriate treatment for their patients through the device. The growing number of mobile applications in health will certainly facilitate patient care. There are currently about 13,000 digital health applications. Nowadays, patients have gradually followed this trend. Rock Health, as a provider of digital health ecosystem services, explains the power of mobile health care as well as the health effects of technology. The digital health care industry has a significant impact on healthcare providers. In this research, the researchers design tools or web-based applications and or sms gate way. The main objective is to monitor early health for expectant mothers and infants who are less likely to receive direct medical care.