Articles
<![CDATA[Comparison of Holt and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in The Forecast of Moving Price for Mutual Funds ]]>
<![CDATA[Muchayan, Achmad]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia ]]>
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DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1167
<![CDATA[Mutual funds are one of the promising investment media where the risk is directly proportional to the size of investment growth. With proper forecasting of NAV price movements will greatly help investors to make purchases and sales transactions, therefore the authors offer the use of two different forecasting methods namely Brown's method and Holt method in double exponential smoothing to get predictions of NAV price movements. The effectiveness of the use of the method will be measured from the value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). From the calculation results obtained by the data that the Holt method produces forecasting for 1809,657 with the best α value of 0.6 and MAPE of 0.644373568, while for the Holt method obtained forecasting value of 1810,924 with the α value and the best β value of 0.9 and 0.1 and the smaller MAPE value of 0.61604262 . Looking at the amount of MAPE generated, the Holt method has a smaller forecasting error rate when compared to Brown’s method.]]>
<![CDATA[Implementasi Pemrograman API dalam Membangun Aplikasi Rekening Bersama pada Komunitas Facebook dengan Virtual Account ]]>
<![CDATA[Armadhana, Dandy Raka]]>;
<![CDATA[Setiawan, Eman]]>;
<![CDATA[Muchayan, Achmad]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Bisnis Vol. 11 No. 2 (2020): Vol. 11 No. 2 (2020) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[STMIK Dharmapala Riau ]]>
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DOI: 10.47927/jikb.v11i2.2
<![CDATA[Aktivitas jual beli di dalam komunitas Facebook tidak semua dapat dipercaya, ada pula oknum yang melakukan penipuan yang dapat merugikan pihak yang terlibat transaksi. Rekber atau biasa disebut rekening bersama merupakan metode pembayaran online yang dianggap paling aman daripada melakukan transaksi secara mentransfer uang secara langsung. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun aplikasi Rekberkuy pada komunitas facebook menggunakan pemrograman API. Pengambilan data pada penelitian ini didapatkan melalui wawancara dan observasi pada anggota grup XYZ di Facebook. Pada tahap pengembangan perangkat lunak, digunakan pendekatan prototyping dengan beberapa tahapan dan dibuat dalam jangka waktu 5 bulan. Hasil dalam penelitian ini yaitu implementasi payment gateway midtrans pada aplikasi rekberkuy berjalan dengan baik. Dengan melakukan testing pada transaksi beberapa customer menggunakan rekberkuy membuktikan bahwa system payment gateway midtrans berintegrasi dengan baik oleh rekberkuy dan mendapatkan komentar positif dari pembeli maupun penjual yang melakukan transaksi pada grup XYZ di Facebook.]]>
<![CDATA[Comparison of Holt and Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing Methods in The Forecast of Moving Price for Mutual Funds ]]>
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
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Check in Google Scholar
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Full PDF (613.08 KB)
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DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci1167
<![CDATA[Mutual funds are one of the promising investment media where the risk is directly proportional to the size of investment growth. With proper forecasting of NAV price movements will greatly help investors to make purchases and sales transactions, therefore the authors offer the use of two different forecasting methods namely Brown's method and Holt method in double exponential smoothing to get predictions of NAV price movements. The effectiveness of the use of the method will be measured from the value of Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE). From the calculation results obtained by the data that the Holt method produces forecasting for 1809,657 with the best α value of 0.6 and MAPE of 0.644373568, while for the Holt method obtained forecasting value of 1810,924 with the α value and the best β value of 0.9 and 0.1 and the smaller MAPE value of 0.61604262 . Looking at the amount of MAPE generated, the Holt method has a smaller forecasting error rate when compared to Brown’s method.]]>
<![CDATA[Sistem Rekomendasi Produk Pena Eksklusif Menggunakan Metode Content-Based Filtering dan TF-IDF ]]>
<![CDATA[Mariani Widia Putri]]>;
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>;
<![CDATA[Made Kamisutara]]>
<![CDATA[ JOINTECS (Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science) Vol 5, No 3 (2020) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Widyagama Malang ]]>
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DOI: 10.31328/jointecs.v5i3.1563
<![CDATA[Sistem rekomendasi saat ini sedang menjadi tren. Kebiasaan masyarakat yang saat ini lebih mengandalkan transaksi secara online dengan berbagai alasan pribadi. Sistem rekomendasi menawarkan cara yang lebih mudah dan cepat sehingga pengguna tidak perlu meluangkan waktu terlalu banyak untuk menemukan barang yang diinginkan. Persaingan antar pelaku bisnis pun berubah sehingga harus mengubah pendekatan agar bisa menjangkau calon pelanggan. Oleh karena itu dibutuhkan sebuah sistem yang dapat menunjang hal tersebut. Maka dalam penelitian ini, penulis membangun sistem rekomendasi produk menggunakan metode Content-Based Filtering dan Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) dari model Information Retrieval (IR). Untuk memperoleh hasil yang efisien dan sesuai dengan kebutuhan solusi dalam meningkatkan Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Sistem rekomendasi dibangun dan diterapkan sebagai solusi agar dapat meningkatkan brand awareness pelanggan dan meminimalisir terjadinya gagal transaksi di karenakan kurang nya informasi yang dapat disampaikan secara langsung atau offline. Data yang digunakan terdiri dari 258 kode produk produk yang yang masing-masing memiliki delapan kategori dan 33 kata kunci pembentuk sesuai dengan product knowledge perusahaan. Hasil perhitungan TF-IDF menunjukkan nilai bobot 13,854 saat menampilkan rekomendasi produk terbaik pertama, dan memiliki keakuratan sebesar 96,5% dalam memberikan rekomendasi pena.]]>
<![CDATA[Implementasi Digital Marketing Melalui Instagram Bagi Kelompok Pengrajin Batik BELVA di Bangkalan Madura ]]>
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>;
<![CDATA[I Putu Artaya]]>;
<![CDATA[Made Kamisutara]]>
<![CDATA[ Madaniya Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Pusat Studi Bahasa dan Publikasi Ilmiah ]]>
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DOI: 10.53696/27214834.161
<![CDATA[Kegiatan pelatihan dan pendampingan ini dilakukan khususnya ingin membantu masalah yang dihadapi kelompok pelaku usaha batik di desa Burneh, Tunjung, Bangkalan Madura. Sasaran utama adalah melatih, dan pendampingan mengenai konten digital marketing kepada kelompok usaha tersebut. Dalam upaya menjalankan usaha secara online menggunakan aplikasi instagram. Dalam kegiatan pelatihan dan pendampingan ini, baru 27 pelaku usaha yang terlayani oleh tim PKM, dimana hasil indikator ketercapaian kegiatan adalah 83,5% yang artinya kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini mampu memberikan sesuatu yang dibutuhkan oleh pemilik usaha kelompok batik Belva dengan baik. Dalam upaya melakukan pendampingan jangka panjang maka tim PKM melakukan monitoring kepada kelompok pelaku usaha tersebut agar mereka lebih mampu mandiri dalam mengembangkan usahanya. Dipilihnya aplikasi instagram karena model digital marketing yang satu ini sedang banyak digemari oleh pelaku usaha dalam upaya meningkatkan pengenalan produk, kegiatan promosi dan peningkatan penjualan mereka secara online. Mengingat saat ini dengan kemajuan teknologi dan informasi, tentu mengembangkan usaha jauh relatif mudah bagi pelaku usaha yang ditandai dengan penguasaan metode penjualan online secara lebih baik. Ini merupakan dampak globalisasi dan penerapan revolusi industri 4.0 dan menuntut kesiapan pelaku usaha untuk mengadopsi metode penjualan yang lebih baik berbasis teknologi.]]>
<![CDATA[The Decision Support System For The Acceptance of Pencak Silat Athletes in Pra-PON and PUSLATDA Team Selection Using Technique For Other Preference By Similarity To Ideal Solution Method ]]>
<![CDATA[Mochammad Rizaldy]]>;
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>;
<![CDATA[Made Kamisutara]]>
<![CDATA[ IJEEIT : International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology Vol 3 No 2 (2020): September 2020 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY ]]>
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DOI: 10.29138/ijeeit.v3i2.1297
<![CDATA[Pencak Silat is one of the traditional martial arts that originated from Indonesia. The parent of Pencak Silat organization in Indonesia is INDONESIAN PENCAK SILAT ASSOCIATION (IPSI). Pencak Silat is one of the most reliable sports branches at the International-scale Olympics. Proven at the ASEAN GAMES 2018 Olympics and then the Pencak Silat Sports Branch is one of the sports branch of the most gold medal with a total of 14 medals. With the increasingly tight competition of Pencak Silat Sports, the trainer desperately needs athletes who fit certain criteria in order to be reliable in a tournament. In this study aims to assist the trainer in selecting athletes that correspond to the criteria. Therefore, a decision support system is required to assist the trainer in selecting qualified athletes. In this research, using the Technique for Other Preference by Similarity To Ideal Solution method is used to advise athletes who are eligible to be contested according to the calculation result. Result system of decision support system with Topsis method of this research has been tested by Pencak Silat Trainer and produce the results of the selection that is expected by the trainer. Keywords: Pencak Silat, Decision Support Systems, Technique For Other Preference by Similarity To Ideal Solution, Web]]>
<![CDATA[Early Detection of Diseases And Abnormalities In The Respiratory System Using Certainty Factor Method ]]>
<![CDATA[Mohammad Arman Prambudi]]>;
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>
<![CDATA[ IJEEIT : International Journal of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology Vol 4 No 1 (2021): March 2021 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY ]]>
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DOI: 10.29138/ijeeit.v4i1.1298
<![CDATA[Health is a very important factor in the human body. If the health of ourselves is interrupted, it is also interrupted by someone to do the activity. There are several diseases that have a lot of sufferers. One of them is the disease of the respiratory system. Respiratory system is defined generally as a matter that disrupts the process of breathing in our body. Diseases of the respiratory system is one of the main problems of public health in Indonesia, because the disease is a human breathing. The expert system is a library of specialists or an expert in diseases of the respiratory system and the conditions used to take the conclusion of the symptoms. In the calculation process used the certanity factor method to find a percentage level of confidence. The Parameter used in the diagnosis is the symptom chosen by the sufferer. The conclusion of this application results in the diagnosis of the disease suffered and the percentage result of confidence through the selected symptoms. Keywords: Respiratory disease, expert system, Certainty Factor]]>
<![CDATA[Take Advantage of Tourism Development Opportunities Through Hybrid Business Activities in Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[I Putu Artaya]]>;
<![CDATA[Sri Wiwoho Mudjanarko]]>;
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>;
<![CDATA[Made Kamisutara]]>;
<![CDATA[Muhammad Roesli]]>
<![CDATA[ THE SPIRIT OF SOCIETY JOURNAL : International Journal of Society Development and Engagement Vol 5 No 2 (2022): March 2022 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[LPPM of NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY ]]>
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DOI: 10.29138/scj.v5i2.1786
<![CDATA[This research was conducted in three cities that have the highest number of hybrid entrepreneurs in Indonesia. The approach in this research is to prioritize primary data by looking for facts in the field related to hybrid entrepreneurial activities. The total number of business owners is 73 people spread across Surabaya, Malang, and Denpasar. Where these entrepreneurs have managed to run their business well in a hybrid way for approximately six years. Based on the research we did, we found that there were four main factors supporting their success in running a hybrid entrepreneurship, that is digital promotion, product identity and legality, resource strength, market analysis capabilities. Based on associative analysis and testing, it is proven that these four variables have a significant influence on hybrid entrepreneurial activities. The limitation of our research is that it does not include a wider range of forms or types of variables. It only involves four variables whose strength has been recognized by entrepreneurs in the three cities. The implications of this research activity will be to be able to provide a clear picture of the development of hybrid business activities and what aspects should be considered for someone when they want to start a hybrid entrepreneur. There has never been and there are not many references to research activities that specifically discuss and examine hybrid entrepreneurial activities.]]>
<![CDATA[Determining the Timing of Investment in Mutual Fund Products using the Double Exponential Smoothing Model ]]>
<![CDATA[Achmad Muchayan]]>;
<![CDATA[I Putu Artaya]]>;
<![CDATA[Made Kamisutara]]>
<![CDATA[ IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) Vol 4 No 6 (2021): November 2021 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[LPPM of NAROTAMA UNIVERSITY ]]>
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DOI: 10.29138/ijebd.v4i6.1590
<![CDATA[Purpose: As we know, COVID-19 affects the economy of most of the world, one of the investment media that continues to grow is mutual fund investment. This study aims to find the right time to invest by studying data in the previous period. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, we collect daily data on Net Asset Value (NAV) prices from January to September 2021, by analyzing calculations using the double exponential smoothing method to predict the time with the lowest price for investing. Findings: The results showed that this study was able to predict the right time to invest in mutual funds using the Holt Double Exponential Smoothing method using the actual smoothing data parameter of 0.9 (alpha) and the trend data smoothing parameter of 0.1 (beta) with produces a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 0.85343. The right time to invest in this research is determined on November 2, 2021 with an estimated net asset value (NAV) of 2348.644032. Paper type: Research paper Keywords: Mutual Fund, Investment Time, Investment Tool, Double Exponential Smoothing.]]>
