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Forecasting Rice Paddy Production in Aceh Using ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models Nurviana, Nurviana; Amelia, Amelia; Riezky Purnama Sari, Riezky Purnama Sari; Ulya Nabilla, Ulya Nabilla; Talib, Taufan
CAUCHY Vol 7, No 2 (2022): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi (May 2022) (Issue in Progress)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v7i2.13701

Abstract

Indonesia targets Aceh to be one of the paddy production centers and be able to carry out self-sufficient production in paddy and become a national granary. However, in reality, Aceh's paddy production in its province is not consistent from year to year. This province has not been able to meet the food needs of paddy independently, so that it supplies paddy from other regions due to the difficulty of detecting the presence of a surplus of paddy. The purpose of this research is to estimate the results of paddy production in Aceh for the future. The mathematical model that can be used is a time series model namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing. The results of the estimation of  paddy production in the next 5 years using the ARIMA (1,1,3) model are 2000616; 2017549; 1903585; 1944499; and 1929810. While the estimation results using the Winter Exponential Smoothing model are 1625925; 1645196; 1687667; 1605530; and 1555213. ARIMA model (1,1,3) produces an MSE/MAD value of , while the Winter Exponential Smoothing model produces an MSE/MAD value of . Therefore, it can be concluded that the Winter Exponential Smoothing model.
ANALISIS PENGARUH LAYANAN SAMSAT WARUNG KOPI TERHADAP KEPUASAN MASYARAKAT KOTA LHOKSEMAWE Chaidir, Chaidir; fairus, fairus; Sari, Riezky Purnama; Nabilla, Ulya; Nurviana, Nurviana; Amelia, Amelia; Fuad, Muhammad
Jurnal Cita Ekonomika Vol 17 No 2 (2023): Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, FEB Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51125/citaekonomika.v17i2.11143

Abstract

Samsat Warung Kopi is the newest innovation product from the Lhoksemawe Samsat Service in 2021 with the aim of making the vehicle tax payment process fast, easy and in a pleasant atmosphere for people who want to pay taxes. The aim of this research is to determine the quality of Samsat warung kopi’s services on the satisfacation of the people of lhokseumawe. The data used is primary data in the form of a questionnaire results distributed to 59 respondents. The results of the analysis show that Samsat Warung Kopi's services in paying vehicle tax is considered to be very good (81.09%). Community satisfaction with the quality of Samsat Warung Kopi's services in paying vehicle tax is rated as Very Good (83.67%). Regression Value Y = 17,222+ 0.893X. dan based on the results of the hypothesis test, it was concluded that that samsat warung kopi’s services had a very significant effect on community satisfaction. The percentage of influence of the coffee shop vehicle tax payment service on Lhokseumawe community satisfaction was 0.239 or 23.9% and the remainder was influenced by variables not included in this research.
PERBEDAAN PENDAPATAN PAJAK KENDARAAN BERMOTOR SAAT DAN SETELAH PANDEMI COVID-19 DI KABUPATEN ACEH TIMUR Intan, Intan Rahmazani; Nurviana, Nurviana
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i1.7897

Abstract

Pandemi virus corona atau covid-19 di tahun 2020 memberi dampak yang negatif terhadap perekonomian. Dampak yang terjadi hampir di semua sektor salah satunya adalah sektor perpajakan. Pajak adalah sumber penerimaan dalam negeri yang potensial untuk terus digali dan dikembangkan. Salah satu pajak yang memberikan konstribusi terbesar pada penerimaan pajak di Kabupaten Aceh Timur adalah Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor (PKB). Untuk itu diperlukan adanya analisis perbedaan pendapatan pajak kendaraan bermotor saat dan setelah pandemi covid-19. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat perbedaan jumlah penerimaan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor Saat dan Setelah Covid-19 di Kabupaten Aceh Timur dengan menggunakan metode Uji Tanda (sign test). Metode Uji Tanda (sign test) terdiri dari beberapa tahap yaitu merumuskan hipotesis, menentukan tingkat signifikansi (), Menghitung nilai statistik uji, menentukan kriteria pengujian (kriteria penolakan dan penerimaan hipotesis), dan membuat keismpulan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan diterima berarti dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor saat dan sesudah pandemi covid-19.
Forecasting The Amount Of Oil and Non-Oil and Gas Exports In Indonesia Using The Box-Jenkins Method Sinaga, Anggita Br; Sari, Riezky Purnama; Nurviana, Nurviana
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 8 No. 4 (2023): Mathline: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v8i4.403

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries in Southeast Asia that has diversity and abundance of natural resources, both oil and gas and non-oil and gas. Export is an international trade activity that is profitable for economic growth in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to determine the best results and models for oil and gas and non-oil and gas export data. The Box-Jenkins method (ARIMA) is a forecasting method that does not require or ignores independent variables. The stages used in the box-Jenkins method are identification of the model to see whether the model is stationary or not, for a model that is already stationary, a parameter estimation test will be carried out by looking at the significance value of the parameter, then a diagnostic check will be carried out using residual white noise and residual tests. normal distribution. After that, the initial prediction model is obtained and to get the best ARIMA model, it can be done by looking at the smallest MAPE value of each model. The best model obtained in this study to predict the amount of oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia uses the Box-Jenkins or ARIMA method, namely model (5,1,3) with the smallest MAPE of 8.142%.  Forecasting results for the number of oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in January - December 2023, namely: January 22194.9 million dollars, February 22795.6 million dollars, March 24796.0 million dollars, April 24106 million dollars, May 22281.6 million dollars, June 23186.6 million dollars, July 25184.3 million dollars, August 24325.8 million dollars, September 22456.3 million dollars, October 23565.6 million dollars, November 25602.2 million and December 24540.3 million dollars. Actual data or actual data for January – April 2023, namely January 22,323.8 million dollars, February 21,321.3 million dollars, March 23,416 million dollars, April 19,290.5 million dollars. It can be concluded that the results of the forecasting value of the box-Jenkins method are close to the actual value.
Diseminasi Media Program Linier Berbasis Geogebra (PROLIBRA) bagi Guru Matematika SMA Negeri 1 Karang Baru Kabupaten Aceh Tamiang Sari, Riezky Purnama; Nurviana, Nurviana; Fairus, Fairus
Al Khidma: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Al Khidma Vol. 4 No. 2 Juli 2024
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Al-Qur'an (STIQ) Amuntai Kalimantan Selatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35931/ak.v4i2.4172

Abstract

Penggunaan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi saat ini menjadi semakin penting sebagai upaya peningkatan pemahaman siswa terhadap konsep yang diajarkan serta membuat suasana kelas lebih menarik. Namun kenyataannya sebagian besar guru matematika hanya mengandalkan buku ajar dan LKS dari sekolah tanpa membuat atau memanfaatkan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi. Tujuan kegiatan PKM ini adalah untuk meningkatkan kemampuan guru matematika dalam memanfaatkan dan menggunakan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi dengan memberikan pemahaman dan pelatihan Media Program Linier berbasis Geogebra (PROLIBRA). Hasil observasi awal mengidentifikasi dua permasalahan prioritas Mitra, yaitu: 1) Rendahnya Pengetahuan dan motivasi guru matematika dalam menggunakan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi. 2) Kurang terampilnya guru matematika dalam memanfaatkan dan menggunakan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi.  Solusi yang ditawarkan adalah: Memberikan Sosialisasi untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan dan motivasi serta memberikan pelatihan pemanfaatan media PROLIBRA. Metode yang digunakan adalah ceramah, diskusi dan praktik. Hasil Kegiatan menunjukkan Guru mendapatkan pemahaman tentang pentingnya memanfaatkan media pembelajaran berbasis teknologi. Guru sudah terampil menggunakan Media PROLIBRA serta sudah mampu membuat bahan ajar dengan bantuan geogebra secara mandiri. Selain itu, 95% mitra setuju bahwa PKM ini dapat meningkatkan pengetahuan dan pemahaman mengenai pentingnya pembelajaran berbasis teknologi dalam pembelajaran matematika dan 85% setuju Mitra mengalami peningkatan keterampilan dalam pembuatan media pembelajaran PROLIBRA.
PENGEMBANGAN KOMPETENSI GURU DALAM PENULISAN ARTIKEL ILMIAH DAN PENGGUNAAN MENDELEY Nabilla, Ulya; Nurviana, Nurviana; Lydia, Ellida Novita; Amelia, Amelia; Muliani, Fitra; Sari, Riezky Purnama; Fairus, Fairus; Mutiara, Mutiara
PAKEM : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 5 No 2 (2025): Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pakem.5.2.55-61

Abstract

Writing scientific papers is one of the important activities to demonstrate the professionalism of a teacher. SMKN 5 Langsa has approximately 37 teachers, 20 of whom are civil servants (ASN). The results of interviews with the Deputy Head of School at SMKN 5 Langsa indicate that many teachers are still not skilled in academic writing. Furthermore, they also face difficulties in preparing proper and accurate bibliographies. One of the software that can be used to compile bibliographies is Mendeley. The training is conducted through several stages, include observing the problems faced by the partners. It is followed by the socialization and training on academic writing and the use of Mendeley software. After conducting observations, the team held Focus Group Discussions (FGD) with the community partners. The team provided socialization to the partners regarding the development of teacher competencies in writing scientific articles and the use of Mendeley for academic references. Then, they provided training and mentoring. The conclusion of this activity is that the program ran smoothly, and the partners gained knowledge and PKM training to improve the quality of their scientific writing
CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR DISTRICT/CITY GROUPING BASED ON VARIABLES AFFECTING POVERTY IN ACEH PROVINCE USING AVERAGE LINKAGE METHOD Olivia, Mirda; Nurviana, Nurviana; Fairus, Fairus
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp1865-1872

Abstract

Poverty is an inability of a person/household to meet basic needs in everyday life. Aceh is one of the provinces in Indonesia which is still faced with the problem of poverty. In March 2021 the poor population in Aceh numbered 834.24 thousand people and in September 2021 the poor population in Aceh increased by 16 thousand people, a total of 850.26 thousand people. Therefore the authors are interested in classifying and looking at the characteristics of 23 districts/cities in Aceh Province based on 5 variables that affect poverty. This study uses data from SUSENAS processed from BPS Kota Langsa in 2021. The variables used are households with the type of floor of a residential building made of soil/bamboo (X1), households with a floor area of ​​a residential building < 10 m2 per capita (X2), households with residential walls made of bamboo/rumbia/wood (X3), households with a source of drinking water from unprotected wells/springs/rivers/rainwater (X5), and households whose head of household did not attend school/didn't finish primary school/only primary school (X8). This study uses the average linkage method, namely the distance between two clusters is measured by the average distance between objects in each cluster. Of the 23 regencies/cities, 3 clusters were formed, namely cluster 1 with the lowest poverty rate consisting of 17 regencies/cities. Cluster 2 with the highest poverty rate consists of 2 districts/cities. Cluster 3 with a moderate poverty level consists of 4 districts/cities. The characteristics of the clusters that are formed are in clusters 1, 2 and 3 the dominant poverty level is influenced by the variable X3, which means that there are still many households that have houses with inadequate wall types. In clusters 1 and 3 the poverty rate is not dominantly influenced by variable X1, which means that many households have houses with proper floor types. In cluster 2 the poverty rate is not dominantly influenced by variable X5, which means that many households consume drinking water from cleaner and more protected sources.
Pemberdayaan Remaja Putus Sekolah Melalui Inovasi Papercraft Dalam Pemanfaatan Limbah Kertas Muliani, Fitra; Meutia, Rahmi; Nurviana, Nurviana; Amelia, Amelia; Sari, Riezky Purnama; Nabilla, Ulya
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Progresif Humanis Brainstorming Vol 6, No 2 (2023): Jurnal Abdimas PHB : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Progresif Humanis Brainstormin
Publisher : Politeknik Harapan Bersama

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30591/japhb.v6i2.4085

Abstract

Fakta di lapangan yaitu masih banyak ditemui kasus remaja putus sekolah dengan berbagai alasan termasuk salah satunya yaitu faktor Pendidikan orang tua dan ekonomi. Sementara itu, dampak dari anak yang tidak melanjutkan Pendidikan akan ada kenakalan remaja yang disebabkan oleh salah bergaul, meningkatnya angka pengangguran, serta pemikiran yang tidak dewasa sehingga mengakibatkan pada kualitas SDM yang rendah. Semakin meningkatnya keterampilan maka akan mudah mendapatkan kesempatan untuk bekerja. Langsa Baro merupakan salah satu kecamatan di Kota Langsa Aceh dengan laju pertumbuhan penduduk selalu mengalami peningkatan disetiap tahunnya. Hal tersebut menggambarkan kuatnya tekanan kesejahteraan rumah tangga yang membebani tingkat perekonomian. Permasalahan lainnya adalah terkait remaja putus sekolah, kasus ini mengalami peningkatan dari tahun 2020 sampai dengan tahun 2021 yaitu masing – masing 19,4 % dan 20,13 %. Tujuan kegiatan yaitu membangun jiwa entrepreneur yang kreatif dan inovatif. Metode pendekatan dilakukan dengan observasi permasalahan mitra dan metode ceramah dilakukan dengan memberikan sosialisasi dan pelatihan kepada remaja tentang pemanfaatan limbah kertas. Hasil pengabdian ini sangat baik, dapat dilihat dari partisipasi dan antusias peserta dalam mengikuti kegiatan. Selain itu dari hasil kuesioner menunjukkkan bahwa 85 % kegiatan ini diharapkan dapat berkontribusi dan berdampak dalam menambah pengetahuan bagi remaja putus sekolah untuk membangun jiwa wirausaha dan berinovasi.
Perbandingan Model Chen dan Lee pada Metode Fuzzy Time Series untuk Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Aceh andika, Fery; Nurviana, Nurviana; Sari, Riezky Purnama
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Vol 10, No 1 (2024): JSMS Januari 2024
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/jsms.v10i1.23463

Abstract

Pertanian merupakan sektor andalan di Provinsi Aceh, di mana sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi terbesar terhadap perekonomian Aceh. Data menunjukkan sebanyak 40,50% pekerja di Provinsi Aceh bekerja di sektor pertanian. Angka ini mencerminkan besarnya ketergantungan ekonomi penduduk Aceh pada sektor pertanian. Oleh karena itu, langkah pemerintah untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan petani sangatlah penting dan strategis. Salah satu indikator untuk mengukur daya beli petani adalah Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) yang diterbitkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) yang mencerminkan tingkat kesejahteraan petani. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana hasil metode Fuzzy Time Series model Chen dan Lee dalam memprediksi Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Aceh, mengetahui bagaimana perbandingan NTP Provinsi Aceh menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series model Chen dan Lee.  Data yang diperlukan dalam penelitian antara lain Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) Provinsi Aceh periode Januari 2018 hingga April 2023.  Fuzzy Time Series merupakan sebuah konsep berdasarkan teori himpunan fuzzy dan konsep variabel linguistik. Metode Fuzzy Time Series model Chen dan Lee menggunakan nilai linguistik dan data historis sebagai prinsip dasar untuk proses perhitungan prediksi. Perbedaan antara model Chen dan Lee terletak pada tahap FLRG. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa untuk periode bulan Mei 2023 Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) di Provinsi Aceh menggunakan model chen sebesar 111,03 dan model Lee sebesar 111,95. Dengan MAPE sebesar 1,50% untuk model Chen dan 1,08% untuk model Lee. Kata Kunci:  Nilai Tukar Petani, Fuzzy Time Series, Model Chen, Model Lee
Optimization Of The Water Distribution Network of Regional Water Utility Company (PDAM) Using Prim Algorithm Nurviana, Nurviana; Harahap, Jahrohani; Muliani, Fitra
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp69-76

Abstract

Graph Theory is an old part of mathematics but has many applications. Graphs are used to represent discrete objects and the relationships between them. One of its applications is in the field of network optimization to find the minimum total pipe length. This research will implement Prim algorithm in optimizing the water distribution network of PDAM Tirta Keumueneng Langsa City with the help of the MATLAB software program. The data used is in the form of secondary data, namely a map image of the water distribution network area and the length of the pipe used in PDAM Tirta Keumueng Langsa City. Based on this data, it can be represented as a graph, which can then be obtained a minimum spanning tree using Prim algorithm with the help of the MATLAB software program. The results showed that the minimum total length of pipe produced by Prim’s algorithm was 105.080,8 meters. This means that it can be said that the application of the Prim algorithm provides an optimal total pipe length, thereby saving 10.113 meters of PDAM water distribution network pipes from the initial total length of 115.193,8 meters.