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Forecasting Rice Paddy Production in Aceh Using ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Models Nurviana, Nurviana; Amelia, Amelia; Riezky Purnama Sari, Riezky Purnama Sari; Ulya Nabilla, Ulya Nabilla; Talib, Taufan
CAUCHY Vol 7, No 2 (2022): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi (May 2022) (Issue in Progress)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v7i2.13701

Abstract

Indonesia targets Aceh to be one of the paddy production centers and be able to carry out self-sufficient production in paddy and become a national granary. However, in reality, Aceh's paddy production in its province is not consistent from year to year. This province has not been able to meet the food needs of paddy independently, so that it supplies paddy from other regions due to the difficulty of detecting the presence of a surplus of paddy. The purpose of this research is to estimate the results of paddy production in Aceh for the future. The mathematical model that can be used is a time series model namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing. The results of the estimation of  paddy production in the next 5 years using the ARIMA (1,1,3) model are 2000616; 2017549; 1903585; 1944499; and 1929810. While the estimation results using the Winter Exponential Smoothing model are 1625925; 1645196; 1687667; 1605530; and 1555213. ARIMA model (1,1,3) produces an MSE/MAD value of , while the Winter Exponential Smoothing model produces an MSE/MAD value of . Therefore, it can be concluded that the Winter Exponential Smoothing model.
PERBANDINGAN MODEL REGRESI WEIBULL DAN REGRESI COX PROPOSIONAL HAZARD Mayawi Mayawi; Nurhayati Nurhayati; Novita Serly Laamena; Ariestha Widyastuty Bustan; Munazat Salmin; Taufan Talib
Science Map Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol4issue2pp49-60

Abstract

This study aims to determine the model of Acute Myocardial Infarction using the Weibull Regression and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression methods to determine the factors that significantly influence the length of time for recovery of acute myocardial infarction patients. The results of this study indicate that the factors that significantly influence the recovery time of acute myocardial infarction patients are age, onset, number of secondary diagnoses and duration of pain. Based on the AIC value, the Weibull regression model is the best regression model because the AIC value is smaller, namely 292.883 compared to the Cox Proportional Hazard regression model with an AIC value of 493.3971
VARIATIONS IN THE USE OF MAKE A MATCH LEARNING MODELS, SCRAMBLE LEARNING MODELS, AND CONVENTIONAL LEARNING MODELS TO IMPROVE STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES Carolina Selfisina Ayal; Binti Rohmawati; Taufan Talib
Science Map Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol4issue2pp74-81

Abstract

Variations in the use of various mathematical learning models are expected to provide an overview of the ability of students to understand mathematical concepts. This study aimed to determine the variation of students' mathematics learning outcomes by using the make a match learning model, the scramble learning model, and the Conventional learning model. Using the quasi-experimental method, the make a match and scramble learning model was applied as the independent variable and the conventional learning model as the control variable. Statistically, the F test was used to show that there was a difference in the mean with the value of Fcount = 4.22 > Ftable = 3.18, and Tukey's HSD analysis showed a value of 14.18 and compared to the group mean, it was concluded that the use of the make a match learning model gave the better learning result value between scramble and conventional learning models
KEMAMPUAN PEMECAHAN MASALAH DAN SELF EFFICACY MAHASISWA DALAM MENYELESAIKAN WORKSHEET PERSAMAAN DIFERENSIAL TINGKAT SATU DERAJAT N Rofiroh Rofiroh; Isnaini Mahuda; Taufan Talib; Faqihuddin Faqihuddin
Science Map Journal Vol 4 No 2 (2022): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol4issue2pp93-107

Abstract

This study aims to describe the problem solving ability of UMT students in solving the first degree differential equations worksheet with the factorization method. This research is included in the category of qualitative research with a descriptive category. The research subjects were 20 fourth semester students for the 2021/2022 academic year. Data collection methods used are test techniques, filling out structured student worksheets and filling out questionnaires. The test is carried out by filling out the initial test. Filling out structured student worksheets consisting of material, examples and practice questions. Based on the initial test data, filling in the worksheets and questionnaires, the criteria for the three types of students were obtained. Type 1 students fill out 1-2 initial test questions, fill in the material incompletely, the sample questions are only done one question out of the two questions provided with unsystematic problem solving analysis and the last part of the practice questions is not filled in. Type 2 students fill out 2-3 questions for the initial test, complete the material, two examples of questions are done, the practice questions are filled with one question. Type 3 students work on 4 pre-test questions, complete structured student worksheets for each material, sample questions and practice questions. The student fills out a worksheet with a systematic problem-solving analysis
PENERAPAN ANALISIS KLASTER HIERARKI UNTUK PENGELOMPOKAN KABUPATEN/ KOTA DI PROVINSI MALUKU BERDASARKAN STATUS PENDIDIKAN Novita Serly Laamena; Taufan Talib
Science Map Journal Vol 5 No 1 (2023): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol5issue1pp10-18

Abstract

One of the main goals of education is to develop potential and to educate individuals. Education is an effort to help the souls of students both physically and mentally towards a better human civilization. This research was conducted to group districts/cities in Maluku province based on educational status using hierarchical cluster analysis with the single linkage, average linkage and ward's methods. The results showed that clustering using the single linkage and average linkage methods was almost the same, while clustering using the ward's method had quite different results. Clustering using the single linkage and average linkage methods shows that Ambon city is the only city that always has its own cluster and does not join other districts/cities. This shows that the city of Ambon has an education status that is quite different from other districts/cities in Maluku Province. Regencies/cities that are always in the same cluster, namely cluster 1, both in the single linkage method, average linkage and the ward's method are Tanimbar Islands Regency, Southeast Maluku Regency, Central Maluku Regency and Tual City
PENINGKATAN KEMAMPUAN MENGENAL LAMBANG BILANGAN MELALUI BERMAIN KARTU ANGKA BERGAMBAR PADA ANAK Ucu, Murni; Salamor, Reinhard; Talib, Taufan
Science Map Journal Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Meningkatkan kemampuan mengenal lambang bilangan 1-10 melalui bermain kartu angka bergambar anak Kelompok A RA Al Hikmah Ambon. Penelitian ini dilakukan karena terdapat permasalahan dalam kemampuan mengenal lambang bilangan 1-10 pada anak Kelompok A RA Al Hikmah Ambon. Penelitian ini merupakan Penelitian Tindakan Kelas. Subjek penelitian ini adalah anak Kelompok A RA Al Hikmah Ambon yang berjumlah 12 anak. Objek penelitian adalah kemampuan mengenal lambang bilangan 1-10. Teknik pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan menggunakan observasi. Teknik analisis data dilakukan secara deskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan dalam 2 siklus, setiap siklus berlangsung selama 4 kali pertemuan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kemampuan anak mengenal lambang bilangan 1-10 meningkat setelah adanya tindakan. Hasil observasi sebelum tindakan menunjukkan bahwa anak yang memiliki kemampuan mengenal lambang bilangan 1-10 adalah 17%. Pada Siklus I meningkat menjadi 50% dan pada Siklus II telah mencapai indikator keberhasilan, yaitu 83%. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa bermain kartu angka bergambar dapat meningkatkan kemampuan mengenal lambang bilangan 1-10 pada anak Kelompok A RA Al Hikmah Ambon
PERAMALAN VOLUME IMPOR MIGAS DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE Latupeirissa, Indri Kezia; Laamena, Novita Serly; Bustan, Ariestha W; Talib, Taufan
Science Map Journal Vol 6 No 2 (2024): Science Map Journal
Publisher : Jurusan Pendidikan MIPA FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jmsvol6issue2pp44-55

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries with abundant natural resources. Mining is one of the most important factors that need to be maintained to improve the welfare of its people and also contributes to the majority of state revenues in the non-tax sector, such as oil and gas. The development of Indonesia's oil and gas sector is very dynamic. Indonesia and countries in the world must adjust production, consumption, domestic and foreign policies from time to time due to changes in world oil prices in order to achieve people's welfare. In addition, our oil and gas production and reserves will continue to decline over time, so we have to import oil and gas. The increase in oil and gas imports also has an impact on the strengthening of the Rupiah exchange rate, so that demand for domestic currency also increases. Therefore, it is necessary to have a forecast to determine the volume of oil and gas imports in Indonesia for the next year. This study aims to predict the volume of oil and gas imports in Indonesia using one of the time series forecasting methods, namely the ARIMA method. The data used is oil and gas import data from January 2019 to December 2023 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency. The results of the study show that the right method for oil and gas import data is the ARIMA Model (0,1,1). The forecast results from January to June 2024 are 4557.45 tons, 4582.71 tons, 4608.04 tons, 4633.44 tons, 4658.91 tons and 4684.45 tons. The MAPE value of 9.31% indicates that the forecast results are very accurate
A Mathematical Model on the Dynamics of the fractional-order of Cholera Disease with Vaccination Talib, Taufan; Laamena, Novita Serly
SAINTIFIK Vol 11 No 1 (2025): Saintifik: Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya
Publisher : Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31605/saintifik.v11i1.574

Abstract

Cholera is a severe infectious disease caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, often transmitted through contaminated water and food. This study develops a fractional-order mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of cholera disease while considering the effects of vaccination. The proposed model modifies existing cholera models by incorporating a vaccination compartment and employs fractional-order derivatives to account for memory effects in disease dynamics. The study evaluates the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points using Jacobian matrix analysis and Gershgorin's theorem. Numerical simulations highlight the impact of vaccination rates, immunity loss, and fractional orders on disease progression. Results show that higher vaccination rates and fractional orders significantly enhance disease control, while immunity loss challenges long-term stability. This model offers a more flexible approach to designing effective cholera control strategies.
Pendampingan Penggunaan Alat Peraga Operasi Bilangan Bulat pada Pembelajaran Matematika di SD Negeri 12 Ambon Novita Serly Laamena; Taufan Talib
Bakti : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Bakti: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Lembaga Layanan Pendidikan Tinggi (LLDIKTI) Wilayah XII Ambon

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51135/baktivol4iss2pp153-160

Abstract

Matematika merupakan salah satu ilmu yang sangat penting dalam kehidupan sehari-hari. Salah satu peranan matematika adalah sebagai alat penyampai informasi serta dapat meningkatkan kemampuan berfikir secara sistematis, kritis serta menambah daya kreativitas. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan pembelajaran matematika sejak dini kepada siswa. Namun, mengajarkan matematika yang sangat abstrak kepada siswa Sekolah Dasar (SD) sangatlah sulit, karena pada usia ini, siswa masih berpikir secara konkret. Hal ini menyebabkan matematika menjadi begitu menakutkan bagi siswa. Hal ini juga dialami oleh siswa SD Negeri 12 Ambon. Berdasarkan hasil observasi dan wawancara, Salah satu materi yang cukup sulit adalah operasi bilangan bulat. Siswa sangat kesulitan untuk menjumlahkan bilangan positif dan negatif, maunpun bilangan negatif dan negatif. Untuk itu, dilaksanakan kegiatan pendampingan pembelajaran dengan menggunakan alat peraga. Kegiatan pembelajaran diawali dengan pre test dan diakhiri dengan post test. Dalam pembelajaran, siswa berdiskusi dalam kelompok, serta menggunakan alat peraga dalam menyelesaikan soal latihan. Hasil dari kegiatan pendampingan ini menunjukkan bahwa terjadi kenaikan nilai pada semua siswa setelah pembelajaran menggunakan alat peraga, dan nilai rata-rata kelas meningkat dari 59,32 menjadi 84,10. Kenaikan yang terjadi sebesar 24,78. Hal ini berarti, pembelajaran dengan menggunakan alat peraga sangat efektif untuk membantu siswa Sekolah Dasar memahami matematika yang sangat abstrak.
EKSPLORASI ETNOMATEMATIKA TERHADAP TRANSFORMASI GEOMETRI PADA BATIK MALEFO Bustan, Ariestha Widyastuty; Salmin, Munazat; Talib, Taufan
Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika (JUPITEK) Vol 4 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika (JUPITEK)
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/jupitekvol4iss2pp87-94

Abstract

Abstract mathematical concepts require using objects around the student's environment to make mathematical concepts more concrete. One of the objects around that can be used is a cultural object. In particular, the approach that links mathematics with culture is the ethnomathematical approach. This study explores the ethnomathematics of the geometric transformation material on malefo batik, a typical batik of Ternate City. This type of research is qualitative research with an ethnographic approach. Data was collected using literature study, observation, interview, and documentation methods. The subject of this research is the owner of the Malefo batik gallery. The data obtained in this study came from direct observation, interviews with research subjects, and document results. The results of the study found that the motifs used in malefo batik can be a concrete example of the types of geometric transformations, namely the translational type of geometric transformation on the clove and machete flower arrangement batik motifs, the type of reflection on the clove flower motif, nutmeg, salawaku, parang and coconut flowers, the type of dilatation in the dodia batik motif, as well as the rotation type in the clove and clove flower motifs. The examples represented in Malefo batik can then be recommended as an alternative learning media to understand the material of geometric transformation better