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Journal : Economic Journal of Emerging Markets

The Relationship Between Federal Government Revenue and Spending: Empirical Evidence from Asean-5 Countries Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Norain Mod Asri; Azrina Al-Hadi Abdullah; Antoni Antoni; Zetty Zahureen Mohd.Yusoff
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 11 Issue 2, 2006
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v11i2.528

Abstract

The main objectives of this paper is to examine the long run relationship between total expenditure, revenue (tax and nontax) and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries namely by Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines. According to the prior studies, there are several hypotheses to explain the relationship between revenue and spend-ing such as (1) spend-revenue hypotheses, (2) revenue-spend hypotheses and (3)bi-directional causality hypotheses. To test the validity of these hypotheses, this study will util-ize a cointegration and variance decomposition analysis. Based on empirical evidence, we can concluded that the existence of long run relationship between government spending, revenue (tax and non tax) and economic growth for all ASEAN-5 countries. The result of variance decomposition also shows that the strong influence on expenditure to revenue in countries namely Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines, which support the ‘spend-revenue hypotheses. Meanwhile, for Thailand and Singapore the budget decision driven by revenue side which support the ‘revenue-spend hypotheses’. In addition, public expenditure plays no role to stimulate economic growth in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines, except for Indonesia. Key words: Fiscal economics; Wagner law; cointegration test; variance decomposition
MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY Antoni Antoni
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 2 Issue 2, 2010
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v2i2.2305

Abstract

The danger of inflation has been the focus of many central banks. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in Malaysia with a backward-looking aggregate supply and demand analysis. The manage floating regime applied in the country has an important role in achieving a stable exchange rate against its major trading partners. It also analyzes the policy of maintaining the soundness of interest rate to perceive inflation targeting to increase its economic growth. Using 1991-2004 data and a traditional structural econometric model, it shows that output gap is important in forecasting a domestic inflation rate by controlling the interest rate.  Keywords: Inflation targeting, monetary economics, structural econometric modelJEL classification numbers: E3, E52
DYNAMIC RELATION OF MONEY VELOCITY, MONEY VOLATILITY AND INFLATION THRESHOLD Antoni Antoni
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 3 Issue 3, 2011
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v3i3.2977

Abstract

This paper investigates relationship between velocity of money, inflation, volatility of money, threshold inflation, output gap, and money velocity gap for two Asean countries, Indonesia and Thailand from 1995:Q1-2010:Q4. The models adopted are Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Hodrick-Prescott and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models. The result shows that relationship between inflation and volatility of money with velocity of money exists in Indonesia, but it does not in Thailand. Threshold inflation does not exist in Indonesia. Meanwhile, it is found that output gap can influence inflation. In addition, the fourth model shows that money velocity gap is not related with inflation for Indonesia only. Keywords: Velocity of Money, Volatility of Money, Inflation Threshold, Output GapJEL classification numbers: E31, E51