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All Journal Media Statistika JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI The Journal of Experimental Life Sciences (JELS) CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Mahasiswa Statistik Jurnal EECCIS Journal of Innovation and Applied Technology Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Natural B Plantropica: Journal of Agricultural Science Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Ikonomika : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Science and Technology Indonesia Prosiding SI MaNIs (Seminar Nasional Integrasi Matematika dan Nilai-Nilai Islami) Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Abdi: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Journal of Applied Data Sciences Economic Development Analysis Journal Proceeding Of International Conference On Education, Society And Humanity Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Suci Astutik
Departement Of Statistics, University Of Brawijaya
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Flood Prediction Using Modeling Extreme Rainfall in East Java, Indonesia Irsandy, Diego; Astutik, Suci; Astuti, Ani Budi
Plantropica: Journal of Agricultural Science Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Februari
Publisher : Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jpt.2026.011.1.2

Abstract

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical method that is concerned with the analysis of the extreme values of a distribution. EVT is often used to model the behavior of rare and extreme events, such as floods caused by extreme rainfall phenomena. There are two methods for identifying the movement of extreme values, namely Block Maxima (BM) and Peaks over Threshold (POT). The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution has three parameters and is used to model the distribution of extreme values using the BM method. On the other hand, the classic method of EVT does not capture uncertainty in the data. The Bayesian method is one of the statistical methods that can use information from data and prior knowledge. This research aims to model EVT-BM using a Bayesian approach for rainfall data at eleven weather stations in Jawa Timur. The result shows that all rainfall distributions at different weather conditions have a value of the parameter shape equal to 0, which implies a Weibull distribution. This paper also provides return level of 6 months, 2, 5, and 10 years respectively.
Pengenalan Peluang dan Regresi Linier Sederhana pada Siswa di Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia Astutik, Suci; Darmanto, Darmanto; Nur Silviyah Rahmi; Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing Damayanti; Alya Fitri Syalsabilla; Aurora Gema Bulan Octavia
ABDI: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Vol 8 No 1 (2026): Abdi: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat
Publisher : Labor Jurusan Sosiologi, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial, Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/abdi.v8i1.1246

Abstract

Tujuan dari kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat ini adalah agar siswa dapat meningkatkan kompetensi dalam melakukan pengolahan data statistik, khususnya teori peluang dan analisis regresi sebagai bekal siswa di masyarakat. Sasaran kegiatan pengabdian ini adalah siswa di Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia. Pengabdian masyarakat dilakukan melalui pemberian materi dan diskusi tentang pemahaman dan aplikasi teori peluang dan analisis regresi, guna meningkatkan produktivitas dan keberlanjutan Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat diikuti sebanyak 28 orang peserta didik di Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia. Untuk mengetahui sejauh mana efektivitas pelaksanaan kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat ini, dilakukan evaluasi melalui observasi deskriptif siswa sebelum dan setelah kegiatan. Selanjutnya untuk mengetahui apakah pengabdian masyarakat ini dapat meningkatkan kemampuan siswa secara signifikan, dilakukan uji t berpasangan. Hasil dari uji berpasangan menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara sebelum dan setelah pemberian materi (p value > 0,05). Hal ini karena materi baru bagi siswa dan keterbatasan kemampuan siswa dalam berhitung.
Haversine-Based Geographically Weighted Panel Regression of Human Development in Gorontalo (2016–2025) Debora Dwi Kurniawati; Henny Pramoedyo; Suci Astutik; Friansyah Gani
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.40886

Abstract

Spatial disparities in human development indicate that socioeconomic factors may influence development outcomes differently across locations. This study aims to analyze spatially varying relationships between the Human Development Index and its key determinants in districts and cities in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia, during the period 2016--2025. The analysis uses balanced panel data and models human development as a function of mean years of schooling, life expectancy at birth, and real per capita expenditure. A geographically weighted panel regression approach is applied, with spatial relationships modeled using great-circle distances and an adaptive kernel weighting scheme, while a fixed-effects panel model serves as the global reference. The results reveal a clear spatial heterogeneity in the effects of the explanatory variables, where education consistently shows the strongest positive influence on human development in all regions, followed by health conditions. Economic expenditure exhibits a weaker and spatially varying effect and is not influential in the provincial capital. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity in regional development analyses and support the formulation of place-based human development policies tailored to local conditions.
Spatial Heterogeneity of Poverty Determinants in Indonesia A Hierarchical Geographically Weighted Regression Approach Debora Dwi Kurniawati; Henny Pramoedyo; Suci Astutik
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i2.42956

Abstract

This study employs the Hierarchical Geographically Weighted Regression (HGWR) model to analyze poverty determinants in Indonesia, addressing spatial heterogeneity and hierarchical data structures simultaneously. Using data across 34 provinces and 508 regencies/cities, the HGWR model with a Gaussian kernel (bandwidth = 15) substantially outperforms the global Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, increasing the R2 value from 0.502 to 0.754. The Moran's I test on the global model residuals (0.2216, p 0.001) justifies the urgency of accounting for spatial nonstationarity, while the HGWR post-estimation residuals show that spatial autocorrelation is successfully eliminated (-0.000641, p = 0.416). At the regency/city level, adjusted per capita expenditure and the poverty line significantly reduce the poverty headcount rate, whereas the average years of schooling shows no significant localized effect. At the provincial level, the Human Development Index (HDI) consistently reduces poverty (mean coefficient of -0.8082) but exhibits substantial spatial variation, where the impact is strongest in eastern Indonesia (coefficients -0.95) and weakest in Java (coefficients -0.65). Conversely, expected years of schooling exhibits a positive mean coefficient (3.4755), with its positive effects highly concentrated in Java. These findings conclude that poverty reduction strategies in Indonesia must be place-based rather than uniform, prioritizing provincial HDI improvements in eastern Indonesia where the marginal returns of development policy are highest.
Hyperparameter Optimization Approach in GRU Model: A Case Study of Rainfall Prediction in DKI Jakarta Fidia Raaihatul Mashfia; Suci Astutik; Eni Sumarminingsih
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 1 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i1.32277

Abstract

Rainfall is a crucial factor in water resource management and disaster mitigation. This study develops a rainfall prediction model for DKI Jakarta using a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) with hyperparameter optimization to enhance prediction accuracy. Daily rainfall data is processed using a sliding window technique, where 30 days of historical data serve as input to predict rainfall on the 31st day. The model is trained with various configurations of batch sizes and the number of neurons in hidden layers to determine the optimal performance. The results of hyperparameter tuning show that the batch size configuration of 64, hidden layer 1 with 32 neurons, and hidden layer 2 with 128 neurons produces an MAE of 6.66 and an RMSE of 13.94. The model is quite good at capturing daily rainfall patterns but still has difficulty in predicting extreme rainfall spikes
A Combined Truncated Spline and Kernel Semiparametric Path Model Development Usriatur Rohma; Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes; Suci Astutik; Solimun Solimun
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 1 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i1.29849

Abstract

Semiparametric path analysis is a combination of parametric and nonparametric path analysis performed when the linearity assumption in some relationships is not met. In this study, the development of semiparametric path function estimation was carried out by combining two truncated spline and kernel approaches. In addition, the purpose of this study is to determine the significance of function estimation using t-test statistics at the jackknife resampling stage. This research was conducted in 135 Junrejo sub-districts of Batu district.  The results showed that the development of a combined semiparametric path function estimation of truncated spline and kernel with weighted least square allows a more flexible and accurate estimation in modeling waste management behavior patterns. 2. The significance of the best truncated spline nonparametric path estimation in the model of the effect of Environmental Quality and the Use of Waste Banks on the Economic Benefits of Waste through the Use of the 3R Principles using t test statistics at the jackknife resampling stage shows that all exogenous variables have a significant effect on endogenous variables.
The Clustering of Provinces in Indonesia by The Economic Impact of Covid-19 using Cluster Analysis: Pengelompokkan Provinsi di Indonesia dengan Ekonomi Terdampak Covid-19 Menggunakan Analisis Cluster Zerlita Fahdha Pusdiktasari; Widiarni Ginta Sasmita; Wulaida Rizky Fitrilia; Rahma Fitriani; Suci Astutik
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p117-129

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Indonesia since March 2020. Several policies have been issued by the Indonesian government to reduce the level of the spread of Covid-19. This policy has an impact on various fields of life, especially the economic sector in various sectors. This study was conducted to analyze the grouping of provinces whose economies are at risk of being affected by Covid-19 based on various economic sectors, namely the unemployment rate, the percentage of poor people, the provincial minimum wage, and the occupancy rate of hotels using cluster analysis. Cluster analysis was performed using several hierarchical methods, namely Simple, Complete, Average, and Centroid Linkage and Ward. The Cophenetic correlation coefficient (rCoph) was used to determine the best method, while the number of clusters was determined based on the Dunn, Connectivity, and Silhoutte indexes. The analysis result shows that Average Linkage is the best method with two clusters. The first cluster consists of all provinces in Indonesia except Papua, whose economy is highly at risk of being affected by Covid-19, characterized by a low percentage of the poor and a low provincial minimum wage, as well as high levels of open unemployment and hotel occupancy rates. Meanwhile, the second cluster consists of the Province of Papua, which is an economic group with a low risk of being affected by Covid-19. By looking at the impact of the Covid-19 disaster, the government can make recovery efforts and generalize economic recovery policies due to Covid-19 which have an impact on the economy of almost all provinces in Indonesia.
Hidden Spillovers of Human Development: Enclave Panel Threshold SAR Evidence from West Java Nidia Ayu; Henny Pramoedyo; Suci Astutik; Friansyah Gani
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i2.42778

Abstract

This study examines the spatial spillover dynamics of the Human Development Index (HDI) in West Java Province, Indonesia, using the Enclave Panel Threshold Spatial Autoregressive (E-PT-SAR) model and panel data from 27 districts during 2021–2025. The model extends the conventional PT-SAR framework by incorporating enclave identification, distinguishing core prosperous regions, prosperous enclaves, and poor regions. The estimated poverty threshold (γ = 8.5124%) separates West Java into prosperous and 13 poor districts, while the enclavity index and a stationarity-constrained enclave threshold (τ = 0.7143) identify a single prosperous enclave, Ciamis. The results reveal that spatial spillovers differ markedly across regimes. Crucially, the spillover among prosperous districts is insignificant in the conventional two-regime model (ρ = 0.4656, p = 0.240) but becomes significant once the isolated enclave is separated (core prosperous ρ = 0.6344, p = 0.025), revealing a spillover that the standard threshold model masks. A strong spillover is also found in the poor regime (ρ = 0.9740), whereas the enclave shows no statistically detectable spillover, consistent with the hypothesis that spatially isolated prosperity does not diffuse to surrounding poorer areas. The effects decomposition confirms that indirect (spillover) effects dominate in the poor regime. Because the enclave regime comprises only one district, its results are interpreted as exploratory. These findings imply that regional development policies should be tailored to different spatial regimes. Keywords: Spatial Econometrics; E-PT-SAR; Enclave; Spatial Spillover; HDI; West Java
Co-Authors Abdullah Abdullah Abu Bakar Sambah, Abu Bakar Achmad Efendi Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes Agus Fachrur Rozy Alya Fitri Syalsabilla Ani Budi Astuti Ani Budi Astuti Ari Purwanto Sarwo Prasojo Atiek Iriany Aulia, Silvia Intan Aurora Gema Bulan Octavia Azizah, Laila Nur Balqis, Nabila Azarin Bestari Archita Safitri Budiarti, Laelita Damayanti, Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing Darmanto Darmanto Darmanto Darmanto Debora Dwi Kurniawati Dewi Kurnia Sari Dewi, Vita Rosiana Diego Irsandy Djihan Wahyuni effendi, Achmad Elok Pratiwi Eni Sumarminingsih Evellin Dewi Lusiana, Evellin Dewi Fachri Faisal Fahimah Fauwziyah Fairuz Zada Zayyana Fakhrunnisa, Atmadani Rahayu Fernandes, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fidia Raaihatul Mashfia Fitriani, Suci Friansyah Gani Friansyah Gani Handayani, Sri Heni Kusdarwati Henny Pramoedyo Henny Pramoedyo Henny Pramoedyo Husnul Khatimah Irsandy, Diego Ismi Chai Runnisa Isnani Darti Kusdarwati, Heni Lee, Muhammad Hisyam Lestari, Dwi Retno Loekito Adi Soehono Loekito Adi Soehono Lusia, Dwi Ayu Lusiana, Evelin Dewi Maharani, Adinda Gita Maisaroh, Ulfah Mashfia, Fidia Raaihatul Masrokhah, Dwi Maulana, Eka Dani Meilina Retno Hapsari Meilinda Trisilia Muhammad, Alifiandi Rafi Nanda Rizqia Pradana Ratnasari, Nanda Rizqia Pradana Negara, Nur Aminah Kusuma Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani Nidia Ayu Nisa Dwirahma Widhiasih Novi Nur Aini Nur Iriawan Nur Silviyah Rahmi Nurjannah Nurjannah Nurjannah Ola, Petrus Kanisius pramoedyo, henny Pratama, Muhamad Liswansyah Qurrotu A’yun Nafidah Rahma Fitriani Rahma Fitriani Rahmi, Nur Silviyah Ramifidisoa, Lucius Risda, Intan Fadhila Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing Damayanti Rohma, Usriatur Salsabila, Imelda Saniyawati, Fang You Dwi Ayu Shalu Sera Yunarizal P Setiarini, An Nisa Dwi Shahuneeza Naseer, Mariyam Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Solimun, Solimun Sugiono Sugiono Sumarminingsih, Eni Susanto, Mohammad Hilmi Susi Wuryantini Syalsabilla, Alya Fitri Theresia Mitakda, Maria Bernadetha Tiza Ayu Virania Usriatur Rohma Viera Wardhani Wahyuni, Djihan Widiarni Ginta Sasmita Wulaida Rizky Fitrilia Wulaida Rizky Fitrilia Zamelina, Armando Jacquis Federal Zerlita Fahdha Pusdiktasari