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Pengembangan Aplikasi Prediksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia dengan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Backpropagation Erlangga Erlangga; Sukmawati Nur Endah; Eko Adi Sarwoko
Jurnal Masyarakat Informatika Vol 6, No 11 (2015): JURNAL MASYARAKAT INFORMATIKA
Publisher : Department of Informatics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (508.093 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/jmasif.6.11.10123

Abstract

  Pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu indikator penting dalam menganalisis pembangunan perekonomian yang terjadi di suatu negara. Dengan mengetahui pertumbuhan ekonomi di masa mendatang, dapat memberikan gambaran terhadap situasi moneter di suatu negara. Angka pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tidak selalu linier, memberi kesulitan tersendiri dalam melakukan proses prediksi. Untuk itu diperlukan suatu metode yang mampu menangani karakteristik data pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terkadang bersifat non-linier, salah satunya adalah metode backpropagation. Adanya data-data masa lalu mengenai pertumbuhan ekonomi, menjadikan jaringan syaraf tiruan metode backpropagation dapat diterapkan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada metode backpropagation terjadi penyesuaian nilai bobot dan bias yang semakin baik pada proses pelatihan, sehingga target keluaran lebih mendekati ketepatan. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian yang telah dilakukan, performa terbaik yang didapat dari perbandingan kombinasi jumlah neuron hidden layer dan learning rate, mampu menghasilkan prediksi yang mendekati angka pertumbuhan ekonomi faktual, yakni 5,86%. Hasil ini menunjukkan tingkat keakuratan sebesar 99,92% untuk prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di tahun 2013 dengan data faktual sebesar 5,78%.
Model of nitrogen-phosphorus ratio and phytoplankton relationship in lake Laut Tawar, Indonesia Saiful Adhar; Munawwar Khalil; Erlangga Erlangga; Muliani Muliani; Rachmawati Rusydi; Mainisa Mainisa; Imanullah Imanullah; Yudho Andika
Depik Vol 12, No 3 (2023): DECEMBER 2023
Publisher : Faculty of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13170/depik.12.3.33935

Abstract

Phytoplankton blooms in the lake cause ecological, economic, health, energy, and aesthetic losses. It reduces water quality and biota diversity, creates toxins in the waters, and changes the structures and functions of the ecosystem. The essential nutrients for the growth of phytoplankton are nitrogen and phosphorus. Controlling phytoplankton growth can be managed by controlling the limiting nutrient input. This study aims to identify the limiting nutrient, analyze variations in TN:TP ratio spatially and temporally, and model TN:TP ratio and chlorophyll-a relationship. This study used secondary data from previous studies, namely TN, TP, and chlorophyll-a observed monthly in seven stations purposively during a year. Rainfall data was also obtained from the previous study. Limiting nutrients were determined by Redfield theory, and data were analyzed by Spearman correlation, One-way ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, and regression analysis. The results showed phosphorus was a limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth in Lake Laut Tawar. TN:TP ratio and chlorophyll-a did not vary spatially, indicating the lake surface waters were evenly mixed. The parameters varied temporally, expressing the influence of hydroclimatological factors, especially rainfall. Rainfall increases nutrient input to the lake, but only rain below 200 mm/month causes an increase in the concentration of nutrients in the lake. The rainfall above 200 mm/month increases lake water volume significantly, thereby reducing nutrient concentrations. TN:TP ratio and chlorophyll-a related negatively and formed a non-linear relationship with an empirical model Chlorophyll-a = 2770.285 (TN/TP)-1.871. Eutrophication of Lake Laut Tawar should be anticipated by controlling the anthropogenic phosphorus input.Keywords:AnthropogenicChlorophyll-aEutrophication,Limiting nutrientRainfall