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All Journal HAYATI Journal of Biosciences Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Statistika BERKALA SAINSTEK CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Kreano, Jurnal Matematika Kreatif-Inovatif Prosiding Seminar Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematik AJIE (Asian Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship) UNEJ e-Proceeding Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Mathvision : Jurnal Matematika Abdimas Universal JUSTINDO (Jurnal Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi Indonesia) ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Jurnal Hasil Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Universitas Jember Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Alfian Futuhul Hadi
Departement Of Mathematics, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Science, University Of Jember, Jember, 68121, Indonesia
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Journal : ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application

 1 
Penentuan Arsitektur Terbaik Model NAR-NN untuk Peramalan Kasus Covid-19 Awalin, Qonita Ilmi; Anggraeni, Dian; Hadi, Alfian Futuhul
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.21365

Abstract

The NAR-NN model will be applied in time series forecasting, namely data on confirmed cases of Covid- 19 in East Kalimantan Province. The use of time series data as the basis for forecasting so that it can recognize patterns that occur which can then be used as a reference to predict the number of cases that will occur. This research data is 300 daily data for the time period from October 23, 2020 to August 18, 2021, which follows a nonlinear pattern and experiences an upward trend. In this study, the best architecture was determined for the NAR-NN model using the sigmoid activation function and the Levenberg-Marquadt Backpropagation training algorithm. The NAR-NN architecture consists of three layers, namely the input layer, the hidden layer, and the output layer. The evaluation model used is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study by experimenting with the number of hidden neurons showed that the model with the best architecture at the time of delay was 4 and the number of hidden neurons was 8 with the MAPE value forecast with actual data of 7.5083%.
Co-Authors A. A. Mattjik Abduh Riski Achmad Budi Susetyo Anak Agung Gede Sugianthara Awalin, Qonita Ilmi Budi Lestari D. Dafik Dian Anggraeni Dian Anggraeni Dian Anggraeni Dian Anggraeni Dian Anggraeni Dian Anggraeni Fatmala, Siti Febriana Fauziyah, Mailulah Ely Forestryani, Veniola Frida Murtinasari, Frida Halimatus Sa'diyah Halimatus Sa'diyah Halimatus Sa’diyah Herry Purnomo, Bambang Hidayat, Muhammad Jamil Hobri I Made Sumertajaya I Made Tirta Ika Hesti Agustin, Ika Hesti Ira Yudistira Kosala Dwidja Purnomo Kurnia Ahadiyah M Dika saputra Madinda, Diah Putri Miftahul Ulum Mohamad Fatekurohman Muhammad Iqbal Yunan Helmi Muharom, Lutfi Ali Nasrul Ilminnafik Nurul Fittriyah, Nurul Paramitha, Luckyta Citra Ayu Prayogo, Rizky Rio Pradani Putra Rory Ronella Agustin Rusdiana, Riza Yuli Sa’diyah, Halimatus Sudarko Sudarko Sunder, R. Syamsul Arifin Tresnawanti, Dini Wibisono, Dwi Anugrah Yuliani Setia Dewi