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p-Index From 2021 - 2026
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All Journal Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science
Dila Tirta Julianty
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Mathematics

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Black-Scholes Method for Rainfall Index-Based Agricultural Insurance Premiums Lestari, Fuji; Julianty, Dila Tirta; Vikarti, Maulida Magdalena
Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science Volume 6 Issue 1, April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/enthusiastic.vol6.iss1.art7

Abstract

Agriculture plays an important role in national economic development. However, it has the highest risk of loss due to its dependence on climate conditions. One of the efforts to reduce the risk of crop failure is through an agricultural insurance program. This study aimed to analyze the value of the rainfall climate index used and the calculation of agricultural insurance premiums based on it. The method used to determine the rainfall climate index was the historical burn analysis method, while the method used to calculate agricultural insurance premiums was the Black-Scholes method. The study showed significant spatial variation in rainfall index-based agricultural insurance premiums across Sumatra. Premiums rose with higher percentiles, with North Sumatra the highest (IDR 3.28–3.55 million) and Aceh the lowest (IDR 100–137 thousand). The inclusion of all rainfall stations revealed a more detailed spatial pattern. Overall, premiums strongly reflect local climatic conditions and can aid risk assessment and insurance planning.
Co-Authors Fuji Lestari Vikarti, Maulida Magdalena