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System dynamics scenarios for sustainable oil palm management toward Indonesia’s 2060 net zero target HERNAWAN, ENDANG; ROSMIATI, MIA; LASTINI, TIEN; MUSTARI, ERI; KANDAR, MAMAT
Asian Journal of Agriculture Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Smujo International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/asianjagric/g090207

Abstract

Abstract. Hernawan E, Rosmiati M, Lastini T, Mustari E, Kandar M. 2025. System dynamics scenarios for sustainable oil palm management toward Indonesia’s 2060 net zero target. Asian J Agric 9: 402-414. Indonesia’s palm oil sector plays a crucial role in national economic growth. However, it faces complex and interconnected challenges, including maintaining its significant contribution to GDP, supporting the expansion of biodiesel production, complying with the European Union’s deforestation regulations, and fulfilling commitments under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by 2030, as well as the national target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. This study aims to identify an ambitious yet realistic pathway for sustainable palm oil plantation management through the development and application of a system dynamics model. The research uses secondary data sources, including national palm oil production statistics, demographic trends, economic indicators, and policy documents related to palm oil governance and climate change mitigation. The Indonesia Sustainability of Oil Palm Plantations Management (ISOPPM) model was designed to simulate the impacts of policy interventions focused on promoting the use of organic fertilizers, distributing superior oil palm seedlings, and expanding B40 biodiesel production. The model’s accuracy and reliability were tested by comparing simulated results with historical data from national statistics. The results indicate that under the ambitious scenario, crude palm oil production could increase by 81.3% compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In comparison, plantation area expansion could be limited to 6.27%, enabling the sector to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2048. Furthermore, this scenario demonstrates the potential to mitigate forest biodiversity loss through more efficient land use and improved agricultural practices. Overall, the validated ISOPPM model indicates that with appropriate policy support and technological improvements, Indonesia’s palm oil sector can significantly enhance productivity, minimise deforestation risks and biodiversity loss, and contribute meaningfully to national climate goals, ensuring a balance between economic development, environmental protection, and long-term sustainability.
Valuing And Characterization of Smallholder’s Forest In West Java Hernawan, Endang; Lastini, Tien; Rosmiati, Mia
Journal of Biodiversity and Biotechnology Vol 4, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Bioteknologi dan Biodiversitas (P3BB) LPPM UNS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/jbb.v4i1.81489

Abstract

Today, smallholder forests in West Java - Indonesia play an important role as suppliers of domestic and industrial wood needs. However, with forest managers who are not yet professional and the easy conversion of land use into non-forest, smallholder forests cannot guarantee the sustainability of wood supply. In supporting the implementation of sustainable forest management in smallholder forests, understanding is needed regarding the characteristics of smallholder forests. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the characteristics of smallholder forest stands as a basis for assessing the sustainability of wood raw material supply. The research location is smallholder forest in Sumedang district. Data collection method is a purposive sampling method with moving plot. The results indicated that the density of smallholder forests per ha was 342.5 trees per ha, with 14 species of trees. The distribution of tree diameters ranges from 1-49 cm, with a predominant class diameter of 10-15 cm. The potential stands for smallholder forests are 32.68 m3ha-1. The cutting felling cycle is at the age of 6.5 years with a selective logging system at a diameter size of more than 15 cm, so it is not optimal and there is a tendency that it will not continue. Therefore, in increasing its sustainability, it is necessary to increase the cutting life. So, there is a tendency for community forest areas to be converted into other land uses.