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Forecasting The Value of Indonesian Oil-Non-Oil and Gas Imported Using The Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) Dian Kurniasari; Sulistian Oskavina; Wamiliana Wamiliana; Warsono Warsono
Indonesian Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining Vol 6, No 1 (2023): Maret 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/ijaidm.v6i1.20651

Abstract

In Indonesia, various factors play a role in economic development. Oil-non-oil and gas imports are one of the main factors. However, the value of oil-non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia fluctuates monthly. Therefore, an appropriate method is required to monitor changes in the value of oil-non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia so that the government can make the right choices. This study uses the GRU method to estimate the amount of oil-non-oil and gas imports in Indonesia. The best model for forecasting over the next two years has an optimum structure of 32 GRU units, 16 batch sizes, and 100 epochs, with a dropout of 0.2 and uses 80% training data and 20% test data. The MAPE value obtained is 0.999955%, with an accuracy of 99.000044%. Forecast results suggest an improvement from June 2022 to July 2024.
CORPORAL PUNISHMENT: CASE STUDY ON THE LEGITIMACY OF CORPORAL PUNISHMENT IN JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL “X” SURABAYA Wahyudi, Agus; ., Warsono
JURNAL PENDIDIKAN DAN PENGEMBANGAN MANUSIA Vol 3 No 2 (2018): Education and Human Development Journal
Publisher : Universitas Nahdatul Ulama Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (204.519 KB) | DOI: 10.33086/ehdj.v3i2.53

Abstract

Guru dan siswa memiliki hubungan yang tidak dapat dipisahkan dalam pendidikan. Hubungan antara keduanya terkadang berjalan dengan harmonis tetapi dalam kesempatan yang berbeda itu kontradiktif. Seringkali, guru melakukan hukuman fisik kepada siswa. Guru mengklaim bahwa hal tersebut dilakukan untuk menegakkan disiplin bagi siswa di sekolah. Makalah ini mengungkapkan bagaimana bentuk hukuman fisik yang dilakukan oleh guru kepada siswa dan niat guru dalam melakukan hukuman fisik kepada siswa, serta bagaimana legitimasi tindakan kekerasan tersebut dibangun. Penelitian ini dilakukan di SMP “X” Surabaya dengan menggunakan pendekatan fenomenologi oleh Alfred Schultz (1991). Studi kasus ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif deskriptif. Teknik pengumpulan data berupa observasi dan wawancara.
Sampling Survey Design Presidential Election Quick Count Sumatera Island Wardhani Utami Dewi; Warsono Warsono; Khoirin Nisa
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v1i1.3162

Abstract

The number of TPS on the island of Sumatra is very large, in order to save time and money in conducting surveys, a sampling survey design was created. The purpose of this study is to predict the results of the presidential election on the island of Sumatra. The TPS sample frame was obtained in four stages where each stage used a sampling technique, namely the first and second stages used stratified random sampling, the third stage used systematic random sampling, and the last used clusters. The results obtained are with different TPS sample sizes showing the same results. The victory in the presidential election on the island of Sumatra was won by candidate pair number two. Then compared with the overall TPS population in Sumatra. Based on the population, the second candidate pair is also superior. So it can be concluded that the use of a survey sampling design in this study is appropriate in predicting the results of the elected president election.
Analysis of Linear Log Models on Covid-19 Data in Indonesia Indah Suciati; Warsono Warsono; Mustofa Usman
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v1i1.3163

Abstract

Covid-19 is still a concern of the world, including Indonesia. The transmission of Covid-19 is very fast and has a wide impact on all people around the world, especially Indonesia. In everyday life, we find a lot of data that looks into a certain category. Categorical analysis of data can be done using the log linear model. The log linear model is used to analyze the relationship between categorical variables that form a contingency table of arbitrary dimensions. The analysis used in this study is to make descriptive statistics and three-way contingency tables, then perform the analysis with the help of SPSS 25.0 software where the goodness of fit test is used to see which models can be used or suitable. The purpose of this study is to analyze a log linear model, so that a log linear model is obtained that is suitable for Covid-19 data based on gender, province, and age group. The conclusion of this study is that of the 9 models used, the model is the most suitable model to be used, with a value of 18,885 and the equation of the log linear model is , which means that there is a relationship between the two factors for the variables gender and province, gender and age group and province and age group in Covid-19 cases in Covid-19 in Indonesia by gender, province, and age group.
Perbandingan Model Gompertz, Logistic, dan Weibull pada Data Kasus Meniggal Pasien Covid-19 di Indonesia Miftahul Irfan; Warsono Warsono
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v1i1.3179

Abstract

Covid-19 merupakan pandemic yang sudah melanda dunia sejak akhir tahun 2019. Covid-19 mulai melanda Indonesia pada awal tahun 2020. Pada awal periode, pertumbuhan pandemic covid-19 ini sangat cepat. Bahkan rasio kasus meninggal akibat covid-19 ini tergolong cukup tinggi. Jika dilihat dari kurva pertumbuhan kasus meninggalnya, nampak bahwa kurvanya melandai pada awal namun menaik signifikan setelahnya. Oleh karena itu artikel ini mengimplementasikan model non-linear yang dalam hal ini menggunakan model gompertz, model logistic, dan model Weibull pada pertumbuhan kasus meninggal akibat covid-19 di Indonesia pada awal kemunculannya yaitu periode April 2020 sampai Maret 2021. Kemudian dari ketiga model itu akan dipilih model terbaik dengan membandingkan nilai R-Square dari masing-masing model. Model yang memiliki R-Square terbesar menandakan model yang paling baik digunakan. Setelah dilakukan pemilihan ternyata model gompertz memiliki nilai R-Square terbesar yaitu 0,9987, sehingga model yang paling cocok untuk data covid-19 ini adalah model gompertz.
Kurva Pertumbuhan Nonlinier (Gompertz, Logistic, dan Weibull) Juanda Juanda; Warsono Warsono
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v1i1.3180

Abstract

Penyebaran COVID-19 sangat cepat bahkan diperkirakan tumbuh secara eksponensial, dikarenakan migrasi manusia antar daerah, negara, bahkan benua yang sangat massif. Oleh karena itu kurva pertumbuhan penderita COVID-19 yang tumbuh dari waktu ke waktu dapat di dekati dengan fungsi eksponensial selama beberapa peubah prediktor diketahui. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memodelkan dan membandingkan kurva pertumbuhan dengan metode non-linear. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode non-linear dengan model gompertz, logistics, Weibull. Hasil yang diperoleh model gompertz memiliki nilai R-Sqaure yang lebih tinggi bandingkan dengan model logistic dan Weibull. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model gompertz menjadi model non-linear yang terbaik dalam menginterpretasikan kurva pertumbuhan Covid-19.
Log-Linear Model on Categorical Data of HIV Cases Wardhani Utami Dewi; Warsono Warsono
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v1i2.5022

Abstract

Categorical data is widely used in social, health, educational and psychological research. A contingency table is a form of presenting this data. One of them is about cases of being infected with the HIV virus. The log-linear model is an alternative for analyzing categorical data. In this study, HIV cases will be analyzed using a log-linear model grouped by gender, age and province. Apart from that, several log-linear models will be formed and the best model will be selected based on the likelihood ratio (G^2) statistical test. According to the results of the analysis and consideration of model complexity, (JK*P, JK*U, P*U) is the best model and fits the data because the p-value = 0.517 is greater than the real level α = 0.05. This means that the interaction between gender, age and province is significant. Studies and explanations about the HIV virus show that individuals between the ages of 25-49 years are more at risk of being infected with the virus. Examined by gender group, women were most infected with the virus, namely 513 people. Apart from that, West Papua is the province with the highest number of HIV infections compared to Maluku and North Maluku
APLIKASI STATISTIKA DESKRIPTIF PADA DATA HASIL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT: STUDI KASUS DATA HASIL PELATIHAN DISAIN MEDIA PEMBELAJARAN DAN PENGOLAHAN NILAI DENGAN MS WORD BAGI GURU SLTP DI KOTA BANDAR LAMPUNG Dian Kurniasari; Fitri ani; Warsono Warsono
Jurnal Dedikasi untuk Negeri Vol 1, No 1 (2022): Jurnal Dedikasi untuk Negeri (JDN)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (596.686 KB) | DOI: 10.36269/jdn.v1i1.876

Abstract

Abstrak Statistika deskriptif sebagai alat bantu dalam analisis data dan penelitian telah banyak digunakan secara intensif. Analisis statistika deskriptif dalam analisis pelatihan desain media pembelejaran dan pengolahan nilai dengan MS Word merupakan bentuk pengabdian kepada masyarakat oleh institusi Universitas Lampung pada umumnya dan Jurusan Matematika pada khususnya yang bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan dan keterampilan guru dalam menggunakan komputer sebagai alat penunjang aktivitas/pekerjaan mereka di sekolah, khususnya dalam mengolah nilai siswa dan menjadikan transparansi sebagai media pembelajaran dalam menghadapi era globalisasi. Berdasarkan pretest dan posttest kegiatan pelatihan ini memberikan hasil yang 'Sangat Baik'. Artinya terjadi peningkatan hasil yang memuaskan dilihat dari hasil ujian akhir (Posttest) peserta pelatihan yang mengalami peningkatan secara signifikan sebesar 95% dari kondisi awal (pretest).   Kata kunci: Statistika Deskriptif, Analisis Data Pelatihan, Desain Media Pembelajaran, Pengolahan Nilai Abstract Descriptive statistics as a tool in data analysis and research has been used intensively. Descriptive statistical analysis in the analysis of learning media design training and value processing with MS Word is a form of community service by the University of Lampung institutions in general and the Department of Mathematics in particular, which aims to improve the knowledge and skills of teachers in using computers as a tool to support their activities/work in schools, especially in processing student values and making transparency as a medium of learning in the face of globalization. This training activity gave 'Very Good' results based on the pretest and posttest. Those means an increase in satisfactory results seen from the trainees' final exam (Posttest), which has increased significantly by 95% from the initial condition (pretest). Keywords: Descriptive Statistics, Data Trainning Anaysis,  Learning Media Design, Value Processing 
Hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Long Short-Term Memory (ARIMA-LSTM) Model for Forecasting BRI Bank Stock Prices Dian Kurniasari; Silvi Fitriani; Warsono Warsono; Mustofa Usman
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 15 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.15.3.274-290.2026

Abstract

Investors highly favour the BRI stock as one of the most popular investment options. The ARIMA method is a suitable approach for predicting stock prices. ARIMA is flawed because it assumes linearity. An alternative approach for predicting stock prices is using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. LSTM has advantages over ARIMA in handling both linear and nonlinear data. This study utilizes the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid approach to forecast the stock price of BRI. Utilizing a hybrid approach that involves dividing the data 90 percent of the data used for training The hybrid model, which uses 80 percent of the data for training and 20 percent for testing, does not achieve the same degree of accuracy as the model that uses 10 percent of the data for testing.