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Hanna Arini Parhusip
Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
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Journal : Science and Technology Indonesia

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Susceptible Vaccine Infected Removed (SVIR) Model for COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Hanna Arini Parhusip; Suryasatriya Trihandaru; Bernadus Aryo Adhi Wicaksono; Denny Indrajaya; Yohanes Sardjono; Om Prakash Vyas
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 7 No. 3 (2022): July
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2154.038 KB) | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2022.7.3.400-408

Abstract

Analysis of data on COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is shown by using the Susceptible Vaccine Infected Removed (SVIR) in this article. In the previous research, cases in the period March-May 2021 were studied, and the reproduction number was computed based on the Susceptible Infected Removed (SIR) model. The prediction did not agree with the real data. Therefore the objective of this article is to improve the model by adding the vaccine variable leading to the new model called the SVIR model as the novelty of this article. The used data are collected from COVID-19 cases of the Indonesian population published by the Indonesian government from March 2020-April 2022. However, the vaccinated persons with COVID-19 cases have been recorded since January 2022. Therefore the models rely on the period January 2021-March 2022, where the parameters in the SIR and SVIR models are determined in this period. The method used is discretizing the models into linear systems, and these systems are solved by Ordinary Least Square (OLS) for time-dependent parameters. It is assumed that the birth rate and death rate in the considered period are constant. Additionally, individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 will not be infected again, and vaccination is not necessarily twice. Furthermore, individuals who have been vaccinated will not be infected with the COVID-19 virus. The SVIR model has captured 3 waves of COVID-19 cases that are appropriate to the real situation in Indonesia from January 2021-March 2022. Additionally, the reproduction numbers as functions of time have been generated. The fluctuations of reproduction numbers agree with the real data. For further research, different regions such as districts in Java and other islands will also be analyzed as the implication of this research.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Adi Setiawan Adi Setiawan Adrianus Herry Heriadi Alfagustina, Yumita Cristin ALOYSIUS JOAKIM FERNANDEZ Ambat, Jordi Enal Ariany Mahastanti, Linda Atyanta Nika Rukmasari Bambang Susanto Bambang Susanto Beni Utomo Bernadus Aryo Adhi Wicaksono Carolina Febe Ronicha Putri Denny Indrajaya Denny Indrajaya Didit Budi Nugroho Djoko Hartanto Djoko Hartanto Endang Warsiki Fachrurrozi Fachrurrozi Fachrurrozi Faldy Tita Fetriks Theo Sarita Fika Widya Pratama Fitri, Nirmala Ayu Andika Gede Sutresna Wijaya Goni, Abdiel Wilyar Hariadi, Adrianus Herry Heriadi, Adrianus Herry Hindriyanto Dwi Purnomo Indrajaya, Denny Isman Mulyadi Triatmoko, Isman Mulyadi Istiarsi Saptuti Sri Kawuryan Istiarsih Saputri Sri Kawuryan Jane Labadin Johanes Dian Kurniawan Johanes Dian Kurniawan Karina Bianca Lewerissa Kristia Anggraeni Kristoko Dwi Hartomo Kurniawan, Johanes Dian Larasati, Mitchella Sinta Lea, Lea Leopoldus Ricky Sasongko Lilik Linawati Linda Ariany Mahastanti Mauliddha Rachmi Mitha Febby R. Donggori Mitha Febby R. Donggori Nafisah Riskya Hasna Nugroho Dwi Susanto Obed Christian Dimitrio Om Prakash Vyas Parung, Ratu Anggriani Tangke Petrus Priyo Santosa Pradani, Wynona Adita Puput Retno Muninggar Purwoko, Agus Puspasari, Magdalena Dwi Rudhito, Andy Santosa, Petrus Priyo Sari, Devina Intan Sri Kawuryan, Istiarsi Saptuti Sri Suryasatriya Trihandaru Susetyo, Yosia Adi Theo Sarita, Fetriks Titilias, Y A Veny M Ningtyas Wijaya, Melina Tito Wijayanti, Yunita Puput Winarto, Eduardus Albert Wulandari, Nadya Putri Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono Yohanes Sardjono, Yohanes Yohannes Sardjono Yusuf Kurniawan