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All Journal Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika HISTOGRAM: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika MATAPPA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Saintifik : Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Guru Tua : Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Transformasi : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Jurnal Varian Abdimas Toddopuli: Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Inferensi Madaniya Jurnal Abmas Negeri (JAGRI) Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Venn: Journal of Sustainable Innovation on Education, Mathematics and Natural Sciences Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Darma Ekawati
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Spatial Flood Risk Mapping in West Sulawesi Using a Regression Model with Moran’s Index and Its Implications for Risk-Based Disaster Insurance Apriyanto; Darma Ekawati; Rahmah Abubakar; Yalgianto; Nurmalia; Khairul Zaman Musliadi
Inferensi Vol 9 No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v9i2.9310

Abstract

This study mapped the risk of flood disasters in six districts on West Sulawesi for the period 2015–2024 using a regression model combined with Moran's Index. The results of flood risk zone mapping are used to develop spatial risk-based flood insurance. The flood risk index (Y) was analyzed against the influence of five independent variables. However, in multiple linear regression tests, there are only two significant variables, namely the variables X2 and X3. Meanwhile, Moran's I test in six counties showed no statistically significant spatial autocorrelation for any variable (all p > 0.05), reflecting a very low test power with only six spatial units. Therefore, spatial dependency was tested through a spatial panel model on the observation of 60 data (10 years for six districts). The results of the Lagrange Multiplier test detected significant spatial-lag dependence, in addition to that the Spatial Durbin Model also provided the best stable match, including significant spillovers from neighboring population densities. Based on the normalized flood risk index, it is known that Majene is the area most at risk of flooding, as well as Mamasa which is the least at risk of flooding, with Pasangkayu, Mamuju, Central Mamuju, and Polewali Mandar at moderate risk. This spatial result rests on only six units and is interpreted as exploration. As a practical implication, the resulting hotspot-coldspot zoning is used to outline risk-based premium structures where high-risk districts attract higher risk burdens, while premium affordability is assessed relative to regional economic capacity (GDP), providing an actuarial bridge between spatial risk maps and disaster insurance designs.
Co-Authors Abubakar, Rahmah Ahmad Ansar Ahmad Ansar Akbar Akbar Apriyanto Apriyanto Apriyanto Apriyanto Asrirawan Aulya Maghfirah Darmawati Darmawati Dewi Puspita Sari Fardinah Fardinah Fardinah Fardinah, Fardinah Hasma Sulaiman Hikmah Hikmah Hikmah Hikmah Hirman Rachman Jumarniati, Jumarniati Karlina Kaya' Karmila Karmila karmila karmila Kartini Kartini Khairul Zaman Musliadi Laila Qadrini Meryta Febrilian Fatimah Muhlis Muhlis Musafira Musafira Musafira Nopriani Nopriani Nurjanna Nurjanna Nurmalia Rahmah Abubakar Rahmawati Rahmawati Ratna Sari Salma Aprilia Samsinar Samsinar Sari, Alni Setiawati, Juli Shinta Nuriah Siti Fatima Azzahra Sulaiman, Hasma Supardi Supardi Suriana Suriana Wahyu, Reski Wahyudin Nur wahyuni wahyuni Yalgianto Yanti, Reski Wahyu