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All Journal Niagawan Ekuitas: Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi Ekonomikawan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan EKONOMIS : Journal of Economics and Business Pendas : Jurnah Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar Cetta: Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan IKRA-ITH EKONOMIKA Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences International Journal of Educational Review, Law And Social Sciences (IJERLAS) International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) EKONOMIKA SYARIAH : Journal of Economic Studies Outline Journal of Management and Accounting IIJSE Ekuitas Jurnal Pnedidikan Ekonomi Economic: Journal Economic and Business Outline Journal of Economic Studies
Rahmadana, Muhammad Fitri
Universitas Negeri Medan
Religion Arts Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Social Sciences Other

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ARIMA MODELS IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN ISLAMIC BANK PROFITABILITY Muhammad Hakim Sitompul; T. Rizkan Polem; Dede Ruslan; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): August
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1817

Abstract

This study aims to predict the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, proxied by the ROA ratio. The data analysis used is ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), which is an appropriate approach for analyzing time series data such as the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia over the period 2010-2023. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (1,1,12) model is the best in predicting the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia. This is because the ARIMA (1,1,2) model demonstrates white noise characteristics and produces low AIC and SC values as well as significant parameters, thus it is selected for analysis. Using the ARIMA (1,1,2) model, profitability estimation shows RMSE values of 0.39 and MAE values of 0.32, indicating a low error rate. The prediction shows a significant decline in the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, although fluctuations remain. Therefore, the ARIMA (1,1,2) model proves to be effective in predicting the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia with a low error rate, despite the prediction results showing a downward trend.
VAR ANALYSIS UNLEASHED: THE VOLATILE IMPACT OF NON-PERFORMING FINANCING ON ISLAMIC BANK PROFITABILITY IN INDONESIA Harry Irawan; Dede Ruslan; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): August
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1818

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse and understand the impact of Non-Performing Financing (NPF) volatility on the profitability of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia. This study uses the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach. The results show a strong interdependence between NPF and ROA in Islamic banks in Indonesia. Although in the short term NPF has a negative impact on ROA, in the long term NPF has a positive effect. Variance decomposition indicates that these two variables influence each other and their contribution increases over time. These findings are important for the management of Islamic banks to understand how fluctuations in NPF can affect the financial performance of banks and vice versa, and to make effective strategic decisions in risk management and profitability.
Co-Authors Aurora Elise Putriku Budiarta, Kustoro Budiarta, Kustoro DEDE RUSLAN Eko Wahyu Nugrahadi Evi Syuriani Harahap Fadhillah Rahmi Fitrawaty Fitrawaty Fitrawaty Fitrawaty, Fitrawaty Harry Irawan Hasibuan, Ali Sandy Indra Maipita Indra Maipita Isma, Faisyal Hartawan Ismul Fakhri Lubis Isra Rafika Jummiah, Rini Siti Lasture Layani Silitonga M. Fauzan Mahyuliza Mahyuliza Malem Ateta Br. Purba Muhammad Hakim Sitompul Mutiara, Nadila Nasution, Adanan Murroh Nofinawati Opy Triansyah Prima Lestari Situmorang Randeska Manullang Rini Siti Jummiah Rini Siti Jummiah Saidun Hutasuhut Saidun Hutasuhut Sidabutar, Marta Juliati Sitanggang, Dormauli Berlyanti T. Rizkan Polem Windari