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VAR ANALYSIS UNLEASHED: THE VOLATILE IMPACT OF NON-PERFORMING FINANCING ON ISLAMIC BANK PROFITABILITY IN INDONESIA Harry Irawan; Dede Ruslan; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): August
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1818

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse and understand the impact of Non-Performing Financing (NPF) volatility on the profitability of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia. This study uses the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach. The results show a strong interdependence between NPF and ROA in Islamic banks in Indonesia. Although in the short term NPF has a negative impact on ROA, in the long term NPF has a positive effect. Variance decomposition indicates that these two variables influence each other and their contribution increases over time. These findings are important for the management of Islamic banks to understand how fluctuations in NPF can affect the financial performance of banks and vice versa, and to make effective strategic decisions in risk management and profitability.
Forecasting the Resilience and Stability of Indonesian Islamic Banking in the Face of Global Economic Uncertainty in 2030 Athar, Gadis Arniyati; T. Citra Nisa Farza; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana; Batubara, Nayla Salsabila
EKONOMIKA SYARIAH : Journal of Economic Studies Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sjech M. Djamil Djambek Bukittinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30983/es.v9i2.9973

Abstract

This study aims to explore the stability and resilience of Islamic banking in the face of the 2030 global recession, providing a foundation for managerial implications in the world of Islamic banking. This research uses a quantitative approach with resilience indicators such as Return on Assets (ROA) and Non-Performing Financing (NPF), and stability indicators such as Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR). The data used is secondary data from the financial statements for the period from the Q1 of 2019 to the Q4 of 2024. To provide an overview and to forecast of the level of resilience and stability, the ARIMA method is used. To illustrate the interrelationship and interaction, as well as the magnitude of the contribution of resilience variables to stability variables (CAR and NPF) with stability (ROA and FDR) in Islamic Banking in Indonesia, the VECM method is used. The analysis results show that overall, the CAR is in the very healthy category, although some banks experienced a decline at the end of 2024. NPF experienced a surge during the recession but tended to stabilize afterward. Meanwhile, ROA and FDR fluctuated due to global economic pressures but showed a stable long-term trend. VECM model estimates indicate a significant relationship between variables, where FDR and NPF influence ROA in the long run, while CAR plays more of a risk buffer role. This finding emphasizes the importance of capital optimization, strengthening risk management, and balance in intermediation functions to maintain the sustainability of the Islamic banking sector amidst global economic uncertainty toward 2030.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengeksplorasi stabilitas dan ketahanan perbankan syariah dalam menghadapi resesi global 2030, untuk kemudian memberikan landasan bagi implikasi manajerial dalam dunia perbankan syariah. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan indikator ketahanan keuangan seperti Return on Assets (ROA) dan Non-Performing Financing (NPF), dan indikator stabilitas seperti Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) dan Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR). Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dari laporan keuangan untuk periode dari Q1 tahun 2019 hingga Q4 tahun 2024. Untuk memberikan gambaran dan peramalan tingkat ketahanan dan stabilitas, digunakan metode ARIMA. Untuk menggambarkan interelasi dan interaksi, serta besarnya kontribusi variabel ketahanan terhadap variabel stabilitas (CAR dan NPF) dengan stabilitas (ROA dan FDR) pada Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia, digunakan metode VECM. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa secara keseluruhan, CAR berada dalam kategori sangat sehat, meskipun beberapa bank mengalami penurunan di akhir tahun 2024. NPF mengalami lonjakan selama resesi tetapi cenderung stabil setelahnya. Sementara itu, ROA dan FDR berfluktuasi akibat tekanan ekonomi global tetapi menunjukkan tren jangka panjang yang stabil. Estimasi model VECM menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan antar variabel, di mana FDR dan NPF memengaruhi ROA dalam jangka panjang, sementara CAR lebih berperan sebagai penyangga risiko. Temuan ini menekankan pentingnya optimalisasi permodalan, penguatan manajemen risiko, dan keseimbangan fungsi intermediasi untuk menjaga keberlanjutan sektor perbankan syariah di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi global menuju tahun 2030.
The Effects of Loan-to-Value (LTV), Minimum Reserve Requirement (MRR), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (Car) on the Performance of State-Owned Banks Ananta, Dimas; Rahmadana, Muhammad Fitri; Fitrawaty, Fitrawaty
Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Sharia Economics
Publisher : Universitas KH. Abdul Chalim Mojokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31538/iijse.v9i1.9135

Abstract

This study examines the impact of macroprudential policies on The Performance of State-Owned Banks in Indonesia, focusing on Loan to Value (LTV), Minimum Reserve Requirement (MRR), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). The research is motivated by the need to understand how macroprudential instruments influence the financial performance of major banks amid evolving credit, liquidity, and capital conditions. The problems addressed are whether LTV, MRR, and CAR individually and collectively affect Return on Equity (ROE), and which of these variables serve as the most influential determinants of profitability. The study aims to analyze the partial and simultaneous effects of these indicators on ROE using empirical data from four large Indonesian banks over the 2013–2023 period. The research employs a panel data regression approach using the fixed-effect model to estimate the relationships among variables. The empirical results show that LTV has a negative and significant effect on ROE, indicating that looser LTV policies tend to reduce profitability through increased credit risk. MRR has a positive but insignificant effect, suggesting that reserve requirements primarily function as liquidity buffers rather than direct profitability drivers. CAR exhibits a positive and significant effect, highlighting the importance of strong capitalization in supporting bank performance. Simultaneously, LTV, MRR, and CAR significantly influence ROE, with an R-squared value of 0.2723, meaning that 27.23% of variation in profitability is explained by these macroprudential indicators. Overall, the findings underscore the essential role of integrated macroprudential policy in maintaining bank performance and financial stability.
PENGARUH PENGGUNAAN GAMIFIKASI DAN KETERLIBATAN SISWA TERHADAP KEMAMPUAN BERPIKIR KRITIS SISWA KELAS Xl BISNIS RITEL PADA MATA PELAJARAN BISNIS RITEL DI SMK NEGERI 13 MEDAN Ricke Triyani Purba; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
Pendas : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar Vol. 11 No. 01 (2026): Volume 11 No. 01 Maret 2026 Publish
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Guru Sekolah Dasar FKIP Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jp.v11i01.43246

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of the use of gamification and student engagement on the critical thinking skills of grade XI retail business students in the retail business subject at SMK Negeri 13 Medan. This research is a quantitative study with an ex post facto design. The population in this study was grade XI retail business students in the retail business subject at SMK Negeri 13 Medan. The sampling technique used in this study was total sampling with a sample size of 34 students. Data collection techniques consisted of observation sheets and questionnaires. The data analysis technique used was multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that: 1) There is a positive and significant effect of the use of gamification and student engagement together on critical thinking skills. This is shown by an F value of 63.046 and a significance level of < 0.05 (0.000 < 0.05). Then, the coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.803 or 80.3%, which means that the use of gamification and student engagement contributes 80.3% to critical thinking skills. 2) There is a positive and significant effect of the use of gamification on critical thinking skills. This is indicated by a calculated t value of 10.391 with a significance level of < 0.05 (0.000 < 0.05). 3) There is a positive and significant effect of student engagement on critical thinking skills. This is shown by a calculated t value of 3.877 with a significance level of < 0.05 (0.001 < 0.05).