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All Journal Jurnal EECCIS Jurnal Mnemonic JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) JOURNAL OF INFORMATION SYSTEM RESEARCH (JOSH) SKANIKA: Sistem Komputer dan Teknik Informatika East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (EAJMR) Malcom: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology
Ahmad Fahrudi Setiawan
Institut Teknologi Nasional Malang
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

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Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Putra, Dzulfidho Wijianto; Setiawan, Ahmad Fahrudi; Vendyansyah, Nurlaily
Journal of Information System Research (JOSH) Vol 7 No 2 (2026): January 2026
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josh.v7i2.8820

Abstract

Rainfall is a crucial climatological parameter for agriculture, tourism, and water resource management. Its seasonal and fluctuating nature requires accurate forecasting methods to capture historical patterns. This study forecasts monthly rainfall using data from Ngaglik, Temas, and Tinjumoyo stations between January 2021 and December 2024, totaling 48 observations. The Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive method was chosen due to stable annual seasonal patterns. Model accuracy was assessed with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Results show varying optimal parameters across stations. Ngaglik achieved the best performance with α = 0, β = 0, γ = 0.81, yielding MAE 64.39 mm and RMSE 90.84 mm. Temas recorded MAE 69.25 mm and RMSE 102.19 mm with γ = 0.78, while Tinjumoyo produced MAE 73.95 mm and RMSE 109.42 mm with γ = 0.56. This study highlights the effectiveness of Holt–Winters Additive forecasting and provides accuracy evaluations to support data-driven decisions in rainfall-dependent sectors.
PENERAPAN METODE K-MEANS ++ UNTUK PENGELOMPOKAN WILAYAH RAWAN KEKERASAN ANAK DAN PEREMPUAN DI KABUPATEN NAGEKEO Poa, Marshella Angela Merici; Setiawan, Ahmad Fahrudi; Irawan, Joseph Dedy
SKANIKA: Sistem Komputer dan Teknik Informatika Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Jurnal SKANIKA Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Budi Luhur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36080/skanika.v9i1.3633

Abstract

Violence against women and children in Nagekeo Regency is a crucial social issue requiring targeted intervention. The Department of PMD-P3A faces challenges in analyzing regional vulnerability, which has historically been manual and subjective. This research aims to develop a web-based vulnerability grouping system implementing the K-Means++ Clustering method. This method was strategically selected for its ability to optimize initial centroid selection through distance probability calculations, resulting in more stable and accurate clustering compared to the standard K-Means algorithm. The system was developed using the Laravel framework and MySQL database, utilizing historical data from 2020 to 2025. The clustering process is based on two key parameters: Type of Violence and Place of Occurrence, mapping regions into three levels: Highly Vulnerable, Vulnerable, and Non-Vulnerable. The results demonstrate excellent system performance with a Silhouette Score of 0.6633 and a Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI) of 0.4520, indicating a solid and optimally separated cluster structure. Beyond statistical data, the system provides interactive digital mapping visualizations. This implementation is expected to serve as a decision-support tool for the local government in formulating more effective and efficient social protection policies in Nagekeo Regency.
Co-Authors A. Asrul Adriyanto Adriyanto, Adriyanto Akbar Bimantara Trahestiawan Akbar, Muhamad Faisol Ali Ridho Danar Pratiyksa, I Made Deddy Rudhistiar Eko Heri Susanto Fatchurrozi, Muhammad Febriana Santi Wahyuni Firmansyah, Syafril Hadi Al Haddad, Abdullah Hibnastiar, Nur Aria Hidayati, Nofia Hidayatur Rohman, M.Afif I Komang Somawirata Ilham Syahriansya, Ali Inzanul Huda, Muhammad Karina Auliasari Mega Aliesa WP, Pramesty Mira Orisa Muhammad Eri Kusyairi Muhammad Rizal Pahlawan, Rifki Mutaqin, A. Imam Al Nugroho, Ageng Nurlaily Vendyansyah Nurul Alifia, Anisa Poa, Marshella Angela Merici Prasetyo Nugroho, Bagas Prastya Bayu Pasifik, Rizka Pratama Irianto, Mario Putra, Dzulfidho Wijianto Rega Firmansyah, Dicky Rizky Aditya Juniantoro, Mochammad Rizky, Arya Robby, Mohammad Sentot Achmadi Siti Aisyah Sunaryo Sunaryo Suryo Adi Wibowo Suryo Adi Wibowo susanto, eko heri Susmiyanto, Feri Vieri Agusliyanto, Naralda Wijono Wijono Yosep Agus Pranoto Yunita Sari, Hesti Zufar Ardana, Fadel