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All Journal Jurnal EECCIS Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics Jurnal Mnemonic JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) JOURNAL OF INFORMATION SYSTEM RESEARCH (JOSH) SKANIKA: Sistem Komputer dan Teknik Informatika East Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (EAJMR) Malcom: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science International Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology
Ahmad Fahrudi Setiawan
Institut Teknologi Nasional Malang
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

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Peramalan Curah Hujan Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Putra, Dzulfidho Wijianto; Setiawan, Ahmad Fahrudi; Vendyansyah, Nurlaily
Journal of Information System Research (JOSH) Vol 7 No 2 (2026): January 2026
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josh.v7i2.8820

Abstract

Rainfall is a crucial climatological parameter for agriculture, tourism, and water resource management. Its seasonal and fluctuating nature requires accurate forecasting methods to capture historical patterns. This study forecasts monthly rainfall using data from Ngaglik, Temas, and Tinjumoyo stations between January 2021 and December 2024, totaling 48 observations. The Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive method was chosen due to stable annual seasonal patterns. Model accuracy was assessed with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Results show varying optimal parameters across stations. Ngaglik achieved the best performance with α = 0, β = 0, γ = 0.81, yielding MAE 64.39 mm and RMSE 90.84 mm. Temas recorded MAE 69.25 mm and RMSE 102.19 mm with γ = 0.78, while Tinjumoyo produced MAE 73.95 mm and RMSE 109.42 mm with γ = 0.56. This study highlights the effectiveness of Holt–Winters Additive forecasting and provides accuracy evaluations to support data-driven decisions in rainfall-dependent sectors.
Peramalan Stok Penjualan Bahan Rokok Linting Pada Toko XYZ Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Siti Aisyah; Ahmad Fahrudi Setiawan; Eko Heri Susanto
IJAI (Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics) Vol 9, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ijai.v9i2.98397

Abstract

Abstrak : Budaya konsumsi rokok lintingan tangan di Indonesia masih populer, terutama di kalangan anak muda karena harganya yang terjangkau dan rasa yang mirip dengan rokok pabrik. Toko XYZ merupakan toko yang menjual bahan rokok lintingan di Banjarmasin yang sedang menghadapi tantangan dalam melakukan prediksi penjualan akibat tidak ada sistem yang memadai untuk menghadapi permintaan pasar yang tidak menentu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun sistem dengan menerapkan metode Double Exponential Smoothing untuk membantu Toko XYZ dalam meramalkan stok penjualan di masa depan berdasarkan data historis sebelumnya. Pada penelitian ini, nilai alpha yang digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan disesuaikan dengan produk berdasarkan nilai MAPE terendah. Sistem peramalan stok penjualan bahan rokok linting di Toko XYZ menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing dapat terhitung 60% tidak akurat dan 40% cukup akurat berdasarkan nilai MAPE dari 10 produk, dimana perbedaan akurasi tersebut disebabkan oleh adanya perbedaan dan keterbatasan jumlah data pada setiap produk. Sistem peramalan stok penjualan bahan rokok linting pada Toko XYZ menggunakan metode Double Exponential Smoothing telah dilakukan pengujian blackbox dan kompatibilitas web yang menghasilkan sistem dapat berfungsi dengan baik di Microsoft Edge, Google Chrome, dan Mozilla Firefox. Oleh karena itu, sistem ini dapat meningkatkan efisiensi manajemen stok di Toko XYZ dengan melakukan prediksi penjualan di masa depan.====================================================Abstract :The culture of hand-rolled cigarette consumption in Indonesia remains popular, especially among young people due to its affordable price and taste similar to factory-made cigarettes. XYZ Store, a retailer of hand-rolled cigarette materials in Banjarmasin, is facing challenges in predicting sales due to the absence of an adequate system to handle unpredictable market demand. This research aims to develop a system by applying the Double Exponential Smoothing method to assist XYZ Store in forecasting future stock sales based on historical data. In this study, the alpha value used for forecasting was adjusted for each product based on the lowest MAPE value. The sales stock forecasting system for hand-rolled cigarette materials at XYZ Store using the Double Exponential Smoothing method was found to be 60% inaccurate and 40% fairly accurate based on the MAPE values of 10 products. This accuracy difference was due to variations and limitations in the amount of data for each product. The sales stock forecasting system for hand-rolled cigarette materials at XYZ Store underwent blackbox testing and web compatibility testing, showing that the system functions well on Microsoft Edge, Google Chrome, and Mozilla Firefox. Therefore, this system can enhance stock management efficiency at XYZ Store by forecasting future sales.
Sistem Prioritas Pembangunan Infrastruktur Kelurahan Berbasis Web Menggunakan Metode Analytical Hierarchy Proses Muhammad Eri Kusyairi; Ahmad Fahrudi Setiawan; Eko Heri Susanto
IJAI (Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics) Vol 9, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ijai.v9i2.95565

Abstract

Abstrak : Dalam mengembangkan sistem pendukung keputusan berbasis web menggunakan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Sistem ini akan membantu pemangku kepentingan di Kelurahan Mojolangu, termasuk lurah, rukun tetangga, rukun warga, dan lembaga pemberdayaan masyarakat Kelurahan, menetapkan prioritas pembangunan dengan cara yang adil dan efektif. Urgensi, manfaat sosial, biaya proyek, manfaat keberlanjutan, dan dukungan masyarakat adalah beberapa faktor yang dipertimbangkan selama proses perhitungan. Selain itu, rasio konsistensi (CR = 0,072) digunakan untuk memverifikasi bahwa perhitungan adalah akurat. Pengujian dalam blackbox menunjukkan bahwa semua fitur berjalan sesuai ekspektasi. Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) berhasil meningkatkan akurasi pengambilan keputusan hingga 85,91% dibandingkan metode manual. 82% peserta menilai sistem sebagai "Baik", 15% menilainya sebagai "Cukup", dan 3% menilainya sebagai "Kurang". Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa dengan memberikan rekomendasi prioritas pembangunan yang lebih terstruktur, transparan, dan mudah dipahami, sistem dapat menggantikan proses manual=====================================================Abstract : In developing a web-based decision support system using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The system will help stakeholders in Mojolangu Subdistrict, including the village head, neighborhood association, community association, and subdistrict community empowerment institutions, set development priorities in a fair and effective way. Urgency, social benefits, project costs, sustainability benefits, and community support are among the factors considered during the calculation process. In addition, a consistency ratio (CR = 0.072) was used to verify that the calculations were accurate. Blackbox testing showed that all features performed as expected. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method successfully increased the decision-making accuracy to 85.91% compared to the manual method. 82% of participants rated the system as “Good”, 15% rated it as “Fair”, and 3% rated it as “Poor”. These results show that by providing more structured, transparent, and easy to understand development priority recommendations, the system can replace manual processes.
PENERAPAN METODE K-MEANS ++ UNTUK PENGELOMPOKAN WILAYAH RAWAN KEKERASAN ANAK DAN PEREMPUAN DI KABUPATEN NAGEKEO Poa, Marshella Angela Merici; Setiawan, Ahmad Fahrudi; Irawan, Joseph Dedy
SKANIKA: Sistem Komputer dan Teknik Informatika Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Jurnal SKANIKA Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Budi Luhur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36080/skanika.v9i1.3633

Abstract

Violence against women and children in Nagekeo Regency is a crucial social issue requiring targeted intervention. The Department of PMD-P3A faces challenges in analyzing regional vulnerability, which has historically been manual and subjective. This research aims to develop a web-based vulnerability grouping system implementing the K-Means++ Clustering method. This method was strategically selected for its ability to optimize initial centroid selection through distance probability calculations, resulting in more stable and accurate clustering compared to the standard K-Means algorithm. The system was developed using the Laravel framework and MySQL database, utilizing historical data from 2020 to 2025. The clustering process is based on two key parameters: Type of Violence and Place of Occurrence, mapping regions into three levels: Highly Vulnerable, Vulnerable, and Non-Vulnerable. The results demonstrate excellent system performance with a Silhouette Score of 0.6633 and a Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI) of 0.4520, indicating a solid and optimally separated cluster structure. Beyond statistical data, the system provides interactive digital mapping visualizations. This implementation is expected to serve as a decision-support tool for the local government in formulating more effective and efficient social protection policies in Nagekeo Regency.
Co-Authors A. Asrul Adriyanto Adriyanto, Adriyanto Akbar Bimantara Trahestiawan Akbar, Muhamad Faisol Ali Ridho Danar Pratiyksa, I Made Deddy Rudhistiar Eko Heri Susanto Fatchurrozi, Muhammad Febriana Santi Wahyuni Firmansyah, Syafril Hadi Al Haddad, Abdullah Hibnastiar, Nur Aria Hidayati, Nofia Hidayatur Rohman, M.Afif I Komang Somawirata Ilham Syahriansya, Ali Inzanul Huda, Muhammad Karina Auliasari Mega Aliesa WP, Pramesty Mira Orisa Muhammad Eri Kusyairi Muhammad Rizal Pahlawan, Rifki Mutaqin, A. Imam Al Nugroho, Ageng Nurlaily Vendyansyah Nurul Alifia, Anisa Poa, Marshella Angela Merici Prasetyo Nugroho, Bagas Prastya Bayu Pasifik, Rizka Pratama Irianto, Mario Putra, Dzulfidho Wijianto Rega Firmansyah, Dicky Rizky Aditya Juniantoro, Mochammad Rizky, Arya Robby, Mohammad Sentot Achmadi Siti Aisyah Sunaryo Sunaryo Suryo Adi Wibowo Suryo Adi Wibowo susanto, eko heri Susmiyanto, Feri Vieri Agusliyanto, Naralda Wijono Wijono Yosep Agus Pranoto Yunita Sari, Hesti Zufar Ardana, Fadel