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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Ilmiah Pangabdhi INTENSIF: Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Penerapan Teknologi Sistem Informasi MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Zeta - Math Journal J Statistika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teori Dan Aplikasi Statistika Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Jurnal ABDINUS : Jurnal Pengabdian Nusantara G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Inferensi Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Elastisitas Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Indonesian Community Journal Eksponensial Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Elly Pusporani
Universitas Airlangga
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : comtech computer mathematics and engineering applications

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Temperature Forecast at Djuanda International Airport using ARIMA, ANN, and Hybrid ARIMA-ANN Elly Pusporani; Fitriana Nur Afifa; Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhina
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v16i2.13219

Abstract

This research evaluates the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models in forecasting temperature at Djuanda Airport, comparing them with the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a hybrid ARIMA–ANN approach. Although statistical models such as ARIMA are widely applied, their capacity to capture nonlinear dynamics in tropical climate conditions is limited, particularly when the data exhibit irregular fluctuations that linear models cannot adequately represent. Forecasting temperatures in tropical airport settings, which is crucial for flight planning, operational safety, and the reliability of aviation operations, remains relatively underexplored. This gap underscores the importance of alternative modeling techniques that can effectively address nonlinear relationships. Using one year of observed data, the models are evaluated with three accuracy metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ANN model achieves the lowest error values (MAE 0.7630, MAPE 2.7067%, RMSE 1.0074) compared to both ARIMA and hybrid approaches. The metrics and the testing graph collectively indicate that ANN has a stronger ability to capture nonlinear temperature dynamics in tropical contexts. Nonetheless, the findings must be interpreted with caution due to the limited dataset and single case study. These limitations highlight the need for extended data and alternative architectures to improve forecasting accuracy and strengthen support for safer aviation operations.
Co-Authors Adinda Tries Melati Afifah Nur Makkiyah Ailsa Shafa Salsabila Ain, Dzuria Hilma Qurotu Ainaya Zakiyah Nabila Alexandra, Victoria Anggia Alfi Nur Nitasari Alfredi Yoani Ana, Elly Andreas, Christopher Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Simamora Audilla, Marfa Aufa Muhammad Yogi Riyanto Aulia Ramadhanti Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Azizah Dewi Ariyani Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhani Bagas Maulana Cantika Dhiya Deby Victoria Diana Nurlaily Dita Amelia Doni Muhammad Fauzi Doni Muhammad Fauzi Dwitya, Shabrina Nareswari Elly Ana Fajrina, Sofia Andika Nur Farah Fauziah Putri Farida Nur Hayati Farizi, Muhammad Fikry Al Fatiha Nadia Salsabila Ferissa Maulida Ismi Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhina Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fitriana Nur Afifa Ganesya Intantalia Grace Lucyana Koesnadi Hanny Valida Haq, Affan Fayzul Helfira Lady Ari Pramesti I Kadek Pasek Kusuma Adi Putra Idrus Syahzaqi Idrus Syahzaqi Irhamah - Irma Ayu Indrasta Ismi, Ferissa Maulida Jannah, Sa'idah Zahrotul Julia Widiyanti Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana Lu'lu'a, Na'imatul Lu’lu’a, Na’imatul M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcelena Vicky Galena Marcelena Vicky Galena Maula, Sugha Faiz Al Maulana Syah Putra Ramadhani Mochamad Rasyid Nabila Rahma Na’ifa, Ariza Nadya Lovita Hana Trisa Nashwa Carista Na’imatul Lu’lu’a Nitasari, Alfi Nur Nurrohmah, Zidni ‘Ilmatun Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sangadji Permana, Made Riyo Ary Pratama, Bagas Shata Previan, Anggara Teguh Putri, Ferdiana Friska Rahmana Putri, Refa Berliana Rahmat Agung Ibrahim Rani, Lina Nugraha Rohayah, Dewi Sa'idah Zahrotul Jannah Sa'idah Zahrotul Jannah Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Sari, Adma Novita Sari, Adma Novita Sasy Okti Karima Sa’idah Zahrotul Jannah Sediono, Sediono Setiawan, Nicoletta Almira Dyah Sheila Sevira Asteriska Naura Siregar, Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Siti Qomariyah Sri Endah Nurhidayati Steven Soewignjo Suliyanto Toha Saifudin Tsabita Amalia Shofa, Nayla Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Yuliati, Intan Yuniar, Muhammad Alvito Dzaky Putra Zah, Alfian Iqbal Zuleika, Talitha Zuleika, Talitha