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Elly Pusporani
Universitas Airlangga
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications

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Temperature Forecast at Djuanda International Airport using ARIMA, ANN, and Hybrid ARIMA-ANN Elly Pusporani; Fitriana Nur Afifa; Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhina
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v16i2.13219

Abstract

This research evaluates the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models in forecasting temperature at Djuanda Airport, comparing them with the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a hybrid ARIMA–ANN approach. Although statistical models such as ARIMA are widely applied, their capacity to capture nonlinear dynamics in tropical climate conditions is limited, particularly when the data exhibit irregular fluctuations that linear models cannot adequately represent. Forecasting temperatures in tropical airport settings, which is crucial for flight planning, operational safety, and the reliability of aviation operations, remains relatively underexplored. This gap underscores the importance of alternative modeling techniques that can effectively address nonlinear relationships. Using one year of observed data, the models are evaluated with three accuracy metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ANN model achieves the lowest error values (MAE 0.7630, MAPE 2.7067%, RMSE 1.0074) compared to both ARIMA and hybrid approaches. The metrics and the testing graph collectively indicate that ANN has a stronger ability to capture nonlinear temperature dynamics in tropical contexts. Nonetheless, the findings must be interpreted with caution due to the limited dataset and single case study. These limitations highlight the need for extended data and alternative architectures to improve forecasting accuracy and strengthen support for safer aviation operations.
Co-Authors Ain, Dzuria Hilma Qurotu Alexandra, Victoria Anggia Alfredi Yoani Ana, Elly Ariyani, Azizah Dewi Audilla, Marfa Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Carista, Nashwa Christopher Andreas Diana Nurlaily Dita Amelia Dwitya, Shabrina Nareswari Elly Ana Fadillah Mardianto, M. Fariz Fajrina, Sofia Andika Nur Farida Nur Hayati Farizi, Muhammad Fikry Al Fauzi, Doni Muhammad Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhina Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fitriana Nur Afifa Grace Lucyana Koesnadi Haq, Affan Fayzul I Kadek Pasek Kusuma Adi Putra Ibrahim, Rahmat Agung Idrus Syahzaqi Indrasta, Irma Ayu Irhamah - Ismi, Ferissa Maulida Jannah, Sa'idah Zahrotul Karima, Sasy Okti Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana Lu'lu'a, Na'imatul Lu’lu’a, Na’imatul M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Makkiyah, Afifah Nur Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcelena Vicky Galena Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto, Muhammad Fariz Fadillah Maula, Sugha Faiz Al Maulana, Bagas Melati, Adinda Tries Nabila Rahma Na’ifa, Ariza Naura, Sheila Sevira Asteriska Nitasari, Alfi Nur Nurrohmah, Zidni ‘Ilmatun Permana, Made Riyo Ary Pratama, Bagas Shata Previan, Anggara Teguh Putri, Farah Fauziah Putri, Ferdiana Friska Rahmana Putri, Refa Berliana Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhanti, Aulia Rani, Lina Nugraha Rasyid, Mochamad Riyanto, Aufa Muhammad Yogi Rohayah, Dewi Sa'idah Zahrotul Jannah Salsabila, Ailsa Shafa Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Sangadji, Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sari, Adma Novita Sari, Adma Novita Sediono, Sediono Setiawan, Nicoletta Almira Dyah Simamora, Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Siregar, Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Siti Qomariyah Steven Soewignjo Toha Saifudin Trisa, Nadya Lovita Hana Tsabita Amalia Shofa, Nayla Valida, Hanny Victoria, Deby Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Yuliati, Intan Yuniar, Muhammad Alvito Dzaky Putra Zah, Alfian Iqbal Zuleika, Talitha Zuleika, Talitha