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Donny Avianto
Universitas Teknologi Yogyakarta
Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences

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Journal : JISA (Jurnal Informatika dan Sains)

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Global Horizontal Irradiance Prediction using the Algorithm of Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Alfin Syarifuddin Syahab; Arief Hermawan; Donny Avianto
JISA(Jurnal Informatika dan Sains) Vol 6, No 1 (2023): JISA(Jurnal Informatika dan Sains)
Publisher : Universitas Trilogi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31326/jisa.v6i1.1649

Abstract

To reduce the discrepancy between the results of the expected data and the actual data, prediction is a procedure that is calculated systematically based on owned historical and present information. For the creation of solar energy projects and for decision-making in other connected domains, solar radiation intensity prediction is essential. This study aims to create a predictive model on monthly global horizontal irradiance data. The method used is the Simple Moving Average algorithm, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. The stages carried out in this study include data collection, data preprocessing, testing of predictive models, interpretation of data visualization, and performance evaluation. The results of calculating the error value and correlation produce an evaluation of the performance of the prediction model. The SES method, which obtained an MAE value of 7.13, a MAPE of 0.02%, an MSE of 88.07, an RMSE of 9.38, and an R2 of 0.94, was determined to be the best prediction model by the calculation of the prediction model performance evaluation. A MAE value of 9.45, a MAPE of 0.02%, an MSE of 150.16, an RMSE of 12.25, and an R2 of 0.91 were obtained by the EWMA method, which is also the method that produced the second-best result. A MAE value of 14.38, a MAPE of 0.04%, an MSE of 367.59, an RMSE of 19.17, and an R2 of 0.77 were obtained by the SMA method, which is the third-best result.
Co-Authors Adhitama, Satriya Adicahya, Bina Sukma Adityo Permana Wibowo Alfin Syarifuddin Syahab Alwani, Adie G. Amalia Rizki Wulandari Apriansyah, Ferryma Arba Ardiansyah, Diky Aribowo Aribowo Arief Budiyanto Arief Hermawan Arieska Restu Harpian Dwika Arif Hermawan, Arif Ashari, Nadia Aziz Perdana Baiq Nurul Azmi Bowo Hirwono Budiyanto, Irfan Budiyanto, Irffan Dewi, Amelia Citra Dian Wijayanti Dimas Dwi Kurniawan Dwi Ratnawati, Dwi Edi Priyanto Enggar Novianto Enggar Novianto Erfin Nur Rohma Khakim Fadhila, Arifa Farras Fadilah, Faiz Fahri Putra Herlambang Fakharudin, Panji Rangga Adzan Fajar Faqih, Allan Bil Febiansyah Annaufal Ahnaf Fauzi Ferdinandus Edwin Penalun Gumilang, Muhammad Satrio Gunawan, Asrul Hanif, Rifqi Fadhlurrahman Hardiyantari, Oktavia Herdy Andriksen Ilmy Eka Handayani Imantoko Imantoko Iqbal, Muhammad Izza Jagad Raya Ramadhan Kusban, Muhammad Kusumastuti, Asriana Dyah Maulana, Adha Muh Arifandi Muhammad Irsyad Indra Fata Muhammad Rizki Muhammad Rizki Muhammad Rizki Nasmah Nur Amiroh Nazar Iqbal Bimantoro Novaldy, Olwin Kirab Nur Widiastuti Nurazila, Siti Octavianus, Yonathan Perdana, Aziz Purba, Yurjaa Ghoniyyan Putra, Kristianto Pratama Dessan Reski Noviana Rian Oktafiani Rian Oktafiani Rianto Rianto Rizarta, Rusma Eko Fiddy Rizky Samudra Falasyfa Roy Fasti Rubangi Rubangi Rudi, Rudiono Rusma Eko Fiddy Rizarta Saputra, Candra Heru Setiawan, Muhhamad Ajun Siti Rokhanah Soraya Fatmawati Sri Wulandari SRI WULANDARI Sutarman Sutarman Syahab, Alfin Syarifuddin Tri Untoro, Iwan Hartadi Tri Widodo Vivianti Wahid, Ach. Nur Aqil Widyastuti, Evi