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Regita Putri Permata
Telkom University
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Comparative Analysis Of Neural Network Model Selection And Data Transformation For Rainfall Forecasting Regita Putri Permata; Andrea Tri Rian Dani
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 10 No. 3 (2025): Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v10i3.763

Abstract

The selection of input models in neural networks significantly influences predictive accuracy in time series forecasting. This study evaluates different input models for neural networks in rainfall prediction using data from the Wonorejo Reservoir, Surabaya. The neural network inputs are determined based on significant lags identified through the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) and ARIMA models. Simulation results indicate that the best Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) model utilizes PACF-derived input lags and is trained using the Rprop+ algorithm with a logistic activation function. Meanwhile, the optimal Deep Learning Neural Network (DLNN) model employs the Rprop- algorithm with a logistic activation function. The best-performing model for rainfall forecasting, based on the lowest Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP), is the FFNN model with an (8,4,1) architecture. To further refine the model, we applied a stepwise selection process to eliminate non-significant lag inputs. However, results show that this optimization had no substantial impact, as RMSEP increased after the stepwise procedure.
Co-Authors Adzanil Rachmadhi Putra Alifah, Amalia Nur Alifianti, Tarisma Dwi Putri Almaasah Zatri, Nasywaa Amri Muhaimin Andrea Tri Rian Dani Astikhatul Mufaidah Dani, Andrea Tri Rian Fannisa Egista Naya Faradila Efaranti , Inge Fidi Wincoko Putro Fikrie Hartanta Sembiring Helisyah Nur Fadhilah Helisyah Nur Fadhilah Helisyah Nur Fadhilah Helisyah Nur Fadhilah I Made Wisnu Adi Sanjaya M. Fathurahman Mohammad Hamim Zajuli Al Faroby Muhaimin, Amri Muhammad Adib Kamali Nadifah, Rofiatun Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia Ni’mah, Rifdatun Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro Rifdatun Ni'mah Rifdatun Ni’mah Rindra Syaifullah Ryanta Meylinda Savira Ryanta Meylinda Savira Salsabiila, Annas Thasya Haafizhah Shefira Eka Putri Sri Hidayati Sri Hidayati Syaifullah, Rindra Taqhsya Dwiyana , Ananda Vivi Indah Rahmawati Yoga Abira , Senna Yohanes Setiawan