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THE ROLE OF FOREIGN DEBT, EXPORTS, AND EXCHANGE RATES IN INCREASING INDONESIA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES Dodi Tirtana; alan miftarova; Fazri Fauzi; Rizky Mohammad Gimnastiar
Business and Economic Analysis Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/beaj.v5i2.25291

Abstract

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves fluctuate due to global and domestic economic dynamics. The problem lies in how key economic factors can maintain the stability and sustainability of national foreign exchange reserves. This study aims to determine the role of foreign debt, exports, and exchange rates in increasing Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves. This research uses secondary data obtained from the World Bank. The analysis method uses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with multiple linear regression. The results show that foreign debt, exports, and exchange rates have a positive effect on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves. The implications of this research show that the government needs to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves. Foreign debt management must be directed toward productive financing that drives exports and economic growth. In addition, a stable and adaptive exchange rate policy is necessary to maintain foreign exchange reserves amid global economic changes.
DYNAMICS OF CARBON EMISSIONS IN ASEAN: PANEL ARDL APPROACH Nugraha, Galih; Dodi Tirtana; Muhammad Nurhikmat; Dim Zarita Suryanugraha
Ekspansi: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan, Perbankan, dan Akuntansi Vol 17 No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Accounting Department, Politeknik Negeri Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35313/ekspansi.v17i2.6713

Abstract

This study analyzes the short- and long-run relationship between economic growth, population, manufacturing, foreign direct investment (FDI), and deforestation on carbon emissions in ASEAN countries, one of the fastest-growing economic regions. Using annual panel data from 1991–2023 for nine countries, this study adopts the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches. Diagnostic tests, including the Im Pesaran, & Shin (IPS) unit root test, confirmed the model's validity with variables having mixed orders of stationarity. The ECM estimation results show a significant long-run cointegration relationship. In the long run, GDP per capita, population, and the manufacturing sector have a positive and significant effect on carbon emissions. In contrast, FDI has a negative and significant impact. Furthermore, the Panel Granger causality test showed that no independent variable can significantly predict changes in carbon emissions. Overall, these findings provide an empirical basis for policies that balance economic and environmental aspirations. The main implication is the importance of formulating a strategy to decouple growth from emissions through an efficient industrial transition and by attracting sustainable investment.