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Wiwik Wiyanti, Wiwik
Surya College of Education,Serpong-Tangerang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Nursing Social Sciences Other

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Journal : International Journal of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computing

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Prediction of The Electricity Capacity Ready to Sell in DKI Jakarta Using Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothing and Arima Methods Agatha, Dhela Asafiani; Wiyanti, Wiwik
International Journal of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computing Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): International Journal of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computing
Publisher : Communication In Research And Publications

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijmsc.v3i3.209

Abstract

The point of this study is to look at how well Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) can predict time series data that have trend and non-seasonal characteristics. The information on the power capacity available for sale (kWh) at DKI Jakarta serves as the case study. It is anticipated that this study will serve as a guide for choosing efficient techniques for data types with trend and non-seasonal characteristics. This study uses a quantitative methodology with the application of Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). A total of 36 data points—monthly data from January 2020 to December 2022—were used in this study. From the analysis results, the error accuracy level was obtained based on the MAPE calculation, namely 3.18% for Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothing. Meanwhile, the best model with the ARIMA method is ARIMA(3,1,1) with a MAPE value of 3.124%. Based on the forecast results from January to March 2023, the predictions with the best model, namely ARIMA(3,1,1), are 3,140,106,571 kWh, 3,149,746,276 kWh and 3,154,664,915 kWh.
Co-Authors Agatha, Dhela Asafiani Ali Godjali, Ali Arifin, Alicia Evania , Clara Della Fadhlullah, Naufal Fadlulloh, Naufal Gunawan, Naftali Brigita Gunawan, Naftali Brigitta HERAWATI, LILIK Jacob Stevy Seleky, Jacob Stevy Jimy, Valensius Johannes Hamonangan Siregar Luh Putu Widya Adnyani Melantika, Brigita Tiara Elgityana Nugroho, Diyas Arya Nur Safitri Wakhyuningsih, Nur Safitri Pradana, Reza Septian Prayogo, Albert Agung Ramadhani, Sausan Riswandi, Calvin Rully Charitas Indra Prahmana Samsul Arifin Seleki, Jacob Stevy Widjaya, Ferdinand Nathaniel Yanuati, Anastasia Maria Zenklinov, Amanatullah Pandu