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Journal : Operations Research: International Conference Series

Determination of Earthquake Insurance Premium Based on Great Physical and Economic Loss Using the Bayesian Method Rahman, Rezki Aulia; Subartini, Betty; Sukono, Sukono; Sampath, Sivaperumal
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), March 2023
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v4i1.207

Abstract

Indonesia is an area prone to earthquakes because it is traversed by the meeting point of 3 tectonic plates, namely: the Indo-Australian plate, the Eurasian plate and the Pacific plate. An earthquake is an event where the earth vibrates due to a sudden restraint of energy in the earth which is characterized by the breaking of rock layers in the earth's crust. Almost all regions in Indonesia are at risk of being exposed to earthquakes. To anticipate the risk of natural disasters, earthquakes are advised to join the insurance program provided by the insurance company. This study aims to determine earthquake insurance premiums based on large physical and economic losses. The method used is the Bayesian method. This method produces each estimated loss value which is then used to calculate the combined estimated loss value. After that, the combined estimated loss value is used to calculate the premium value. The result of this research is the premium which is calculated based on the principle of expected value and standard deviation principle. The premium resulting from the expected value principle is lower than the premium resulting from the standard deviation principle.
Actuarial Calculation of Pension Funds Using Attained Age Normal (AAN) at PT Taspen Cirebon Branch Office: For Normal Pension Amalia, Hana Safrina; Subartini, Betty; sukono, sukono
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i3.332

Abstract

The pension program for Civil Servants (PNS) in Indonesia is managed by PT Taspen (Persero), which is responsible for ensuring the welfare of employees after retirement. One of the important components in the management of this pension fund is the actuarial calculation, which serves to determine the amount of normal contributions that must be paid by participants and the actuarial obligations that are the company's dependents. This calculation uses the right actuarial method to maintain the financial stability of the company and ensure that pension benefits can be optimally provided to participants. This study focuses on the use of the Attained Age Normal (AAN) method in calculating pension funds for pension program participants at PT Taspen Cirebon Branch Office. In addition, this study also compares the results of the AAN method calculation with another method, namely Projected Unit Credit (PUC), to see the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The AAN method calculates liabilities based on the current age of the participant, thus providing more conservative results and tending to be stable in the long term. The results showed that the AAN method produced a higher total normal contribution compared to the PUC method. Normal contributions calculated by the AAN method for participants of the PT Taspen pension program at the Cirebon Branch Office showed an increase of 2,095,355.33 rupiah at the age of 32 years. On the other hand, the PUC method produces a lower normal contribution, which is 827,843.62 rupiah for the same age. In terms of actuarial obligations, the AAN method also shows a more significant increase than PUC. These results show that the AAN method is more stable in the calculation of actuarial liabilities, although it requires larger contributions. Thus, although the Attained Age Normal (AAN) method results in higher normal contributions, it provides better assurance in maintaining the company's financial balance in the long term. This study provides a recommendation that PT Taspen can consider the AAN method as a more conservative alternative in pension fund management.
Analysis of Microinsurance Demands Combined with Microcredit on Rice Farming by Using Utility Function Apipah Jahira, Juwita; Subartini, Betty; Sukono, Sukono
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 2 No. 3 (2021): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2021
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v2i3.175

Abstract

Agriculture is a business that is prone to risk and uncertainty so farmers can face serious difficulties at any time. Especially for farmers in developing countries who are generally small farmers. To anticipate these risks and uncertainties, farmers can take agricultural insurance or apply for credit. Even though an agricultural insurance program is available, farmers are constrained by the limited amount of collateral and liquidity constraints. This study aims to analyze the demand for microinsurance combined with microcredit in rice farming. The analysis is carried out with utility functions and utility comparisons using ordinal comparison. Meanwhile, to determine optimal demand by maximizing the utility using an ordinal approach through analysis of budget line and indifference curve. The results show that the demand for insurance and the profitability of agricultural credit increases along with the lower demand for collateral when applying for agricultural loans. In addition, microinsurance combined with microcredit is more profitable for farmers when collateral is not requested when applying for agricultural credit. Based on the results of the case study, the optimal demand is obtained when the premium for Rice Farming Business Insurance (AUTP) is and the installments of BNI People’s Business Credit (BNI KUR) is
Profit and Loss Report of DSH Meat Stalls in Panumbangan Market Zahra, Ami Emilia Putri; Subartini, Betty
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 3 No. 3 (2022): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2022
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v3i3.186

Abstract

DSH Meat Kiosk is a kiosk that sells one of the foodstuffs, namely Beef. This DSH Meat Stall has been established for more than 20 years. However, as long as the kiosk has been standing, the manager still finds it challenging to analyze profits from sales. Therefore, the Preparation of a Profit - Loss Financial Report is intended to assist traders in managing the profits generated. This report makes a financial analysis of November 2021 and February 2022. The method used in preparing this report is using primary data by collecting data in the form of interviews with kiosk owners regarding matters needed in preparing profit and loss reports such as assets held and owned, total income, operational costs and others. The results of this report show that sales in February 2022 decreased by 17.88% compared to November 2021. It is hoped that this report will help and make it easier to manage the profit generated and make decisions to make the best profit.
Food Sector Stock Investment Portfolio Optimization using Mean-Expected Shortfall Model with Particle Swarm Optimization Tampubolon, Carlos Naek Tua; Subartini, Betty; Sukono, Sukono
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 4 No. 3 (2023): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), September 2023
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v4i3.252

Abstract

One of the most promising investment products is stocks. Stocks have great profit potential, but the risks associated with this investment should not be ignored by investors. Therefore, an optimal investment strategy is needed by forming an investment portfolio, in order to minimize risk and maximize profits that can be obtained. This study aims to optimize the investment portfolio. The method used in this research is based on the Mean-Expected Shortfall (Mean-ES) model. The use of this method is expected that investors can get a more accurate picture of the level of risk associated with their stock portfolio. In addition, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) can also be used to optimize the allocation of funds in a stock portfolio.  Applying PSO, investors can find the optimal combination of fund allocation to achieve a high level of return. Based on the results of the analysis conducted on the following five stocks AALI, BISI, DSNG, LSIP and SMAR, the results show a risk level of 0.0014 and a return level of 0.021%.  Thus, investors can form a stock portfolio that has a high potential return, while minimizing the risks associated with stock investment. The implementation of this optimal investment strategy can assist investors in achieving their financial goals in a more effective manner.  Considering the potential returns and risks involved, investors can make wiser investment decisions and optimize the performance of their stock portfolio.