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All Journal Media Statistika JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Panrita Abdi - Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Saintifik : Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Abdimas Toddopuli: Jurnal Pengabdian Pada Masyarakat Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Madaniya Infinity Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasinya (IJMA) Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics

Asrirawan

Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Author-ID : 6056872

Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Prediksi Jumlah Pasien Positif Covid-19 Di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Berbasis Spasio Temporal GSTAR Orde Satu Maisuri Maisuri; Asrirawan Asrirawan; Ahmad Ansar
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic disease that has not been previously identified in humans. The virus that causes COVID-19 is called Sars-CoV-2. And this corona virus is zoonotic (transmitted between animals and humans). The spread of COVID-19 can be through droplets (small particles) when someone talks or sneezes, air, and contaminated surfaces. So that the main factors causing the increase in COVID-19 include increased movement, activity, and interaction of the population, such as activities in public transportation and the workplace, then the new variant factor of COVID-19 and the linkage in the previous time. The process of spreading from one location to another (transmission) involves a spatial process. The COVID-19 time series data can be modeled with the spatio-temporal-based GSTAR model on 3 islands in Indonesia, namely Java Island and Sulawesi Island. The weight used in this study is the inverse distance weight with the appropriate GSTAR model being GSTAR (1,1). The forecast level of the GSTAR model for all testing and training data with Inverse Distance weights which has the smallest RMSE is in the GSTAR model for Location Java, which is 0.40255. Meanwhile, the forecast for the GSTAR model which has the largest RMSE value is Sulawesi Island, which is 1.616303.

Peramalan Data Cuaca Ekstrim Indonesia Menggunakan Model ARIMA dan Recurrent Neural Network Hikmah Hikmah; Asrirawan Asrirawan; Apriyanto Apriyanto; Nilawati Nilawati
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Vol 5, No 1: February 2023
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Extreme weather modeling is a challenge for modeling experts in Indonesia and the world. Extreme weather prediction is a complex problem because the chances of it happening are very small, so the developed models often have a low level of accuracy. The purpose of this research is to combine the classic model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), recurrent neural network (RNN) model using Adam and SGD estimation (RNN-Adam and RNN-SGD) with the reLU, tanh, sigmoid and gaussian activation functions. In addition, the ARIMA-RNN mix model was also demonstrated in this study. These models are applied to monthly period extreme weather data obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) of West Sulawesi Province which are converted into training data and test data. The RMSE value is used to see the level of prediction accuracy in both training data and test data. Based on the research results, the best model obtained for modeling Indonesia’s extreme weather is the ARIMA-RNN-Adam mix model with the reLU activation function based on the RMSE value on the training and test data. At n = 50, the smallest RMSE and MSE values of the third model are the ARIMA-RNN-Adam model which is 0.23212 using the reLU activation function, then the ARIMA-RNN-SGD model which is 0.25432 with the same activation function, while the ARIMA value is 0.3270. At n=100 it can be seen that the smallest RMSE and MSE values of the three models are the ARIMA-RNN-Adam model which is equal to 0.25149 using the reLU activation function, then the ARIMA-RNN-SGD model which is equal to 0.25256 with the same activation function, while the ARIMA value is 0.2644.

Forecasting Consumer Price Index Expenditure Inflation for Food Ingredients Using Singular Spectrum Analysis Nur Aziza S; Aswi Aswi; Muhammad Fahmuddin S; Asrirawan
Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 24 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33830/jmst.v24i2.4868.2023

Inflation is an economic problem that significantly impacts the macro economy and people's real income if it occurs continuously. South Sulawesi Province often experienced significant inflation fluctuations during 2005-2019. In 2015, inflation in South Sulawesi reached 3.32%, ranking the highest in Eastern Indonesia. Ten food ingredients played an essential role in influencing inflation that year. However, until now, research on forecasting Consumer Price Index expenditure inflation for food ingredients in South Sulawesi using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method has never been carried out. The novelty in this research lies in using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method, which provides a new contribution to forecasting inflation trends in South Sulawesi and deepens understanding of regional inflation problems. This research aims to forecast consumer price index expenditure inflation for food ingredients in South Sulawesi using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method. This research used CPI expenditure inflation data for food ingredients from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency of South Sulawesi for the monthly period from January 2014 - June 2022. The forecasting results show that the lowest inflation rate is predicted to occur in December 2022 at -0,12%, while the highest level is expected to be reached in May 2023 at 0.43%. Furthermore, the mean absolute percentage error value of 3.54% indicates that the forecasting model has a very good level of accuracy. The results of this forecasting have the potential to be used by economic policymakers in South Sulawesi in designing more effective policies to overcome the problem of inflation, especially in the food ingredients and its impact on society. The practical implications of this research can help improve regional economic stability and community welfare.

PELATIHAN PENULISAN KARYA ILMIAH DAN ANALISIS DATA BAGI GURU SD NO. 56 INPRES KAMPUNG BARU MAJENE Hikmah Hikmah; Asrirawan; Musafira; Mega Afsari; Siti Tanri Cici
Panrita Abdi - Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Vol. 8 No. 3 (2024): Jurnal Panrita Abdi - Juli 2024
Publisher : LP2M Universitas Hasanuddin

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/pa.v8i3.23121

This dedication improves teachers' understanding of making scientific papers and analyzing data so they are no longer constrained in writing scientific papers and become competent teachers. This service activity was motivated by the problems of teacher partners of SD No. 56 Inpres Kampung Baru, which included 1) teachers being reluctant to take care of promotions, 2) lack of teacher understanding in doing scientific work, and 3) lack of teacher understanding in analyzing data. The solution to this problem is training in writing scientific papers and data analysis for SD No. 56 Inpres Kampung Baru, Majene teachers, using presentation, discussion, demonstration, and practice methods. The stages of implementing this community service are 1) the preparation stage, communication with partners related to problems faced by teachers; 2) the implementation stage, by providing training in writing scientific papers and data analysis, and 3) the monitoring and evaluation stage. Training on the preparation of scientific papers and data analysis has been carried out well based on the evaluation results of 95,45% of participants experiencing an increase in scientific paper writing skills and 96,1% of participants experiencing an increase in data analysis skills. --- Pengabdian ini untuk meningkatkan pemahaman guru dalam membuat karya ilmiah dan menganalisis data sehingga tidak lagi terkendala dalam menulis karya ilmiah dan menjadi guru yang kompeten. Kegiatan pengabdian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh permasalahan mitra guru SD No. 56 Inpres Kampung Baru yang meliputi 1) guru enggan untuk mengurus kenaikan pangkat, 2) kurangnya pemahaman guru dalam membuat karya ilmiah, 3) kurangnya pemahaman guru dalam menganalisis data. Solusi atas permasalahan tersebut berupa pelatihan penulisanan karya ilmiah dan analisis data bagi guru SD No. 56 Inpres Kampung Baru, Majene dengan menggunakan metode presentasi, diskusi, demonstrasi, dan praktik. Adapun tahapan pelaksanaan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini, yaitu: 1) tahap persiapan, komunikasi dengan mitra terkait permasalahan-permasalahan yang dihadapi oleh guru, 2) tahap pelaksanaan, dengan memberikan pelatihan penulisan karya ilmiah dan analisis data, serta 3) tahap monitoring dan evaluasi. Pelatihan penyusunan karya ilmiah dan analisis data telah terlaksana dengan baik berdasarkan hasil evaluasi 95,45% peserta mengalami peningkatan kemampuan penulisan karya ilmiah dan 96,1% peserta mengalami peningkatan kemampuan analisis data.

Co-Authors Ahmad Ansar Apriyanto Apriyanto Aswi, Aswi Aulya Maghfirah Budi Nurani Ruchjana Darma Ekawati Dedi Rosadi Dwi Risky Arifanti Fardinah Fardinah Gumgum Darmawan Hikmah Hikmah Ihsan Fathoni Amri Ilyas, Muhammad Laila Qadrini Laila Qadrini Laila Qadrini Maisuri Maisuri Maryam Maryam Mega Afsari Meryta Febrilian Fatimah Muhammad Arafat Abdullah Muhammad Fahmuddin Muhammad Ilham Fauzan Musafira Nilawati Nilawati Nur Aziza S Nur Mahmudah Rahmawati Rahmawati Resa Septiani Pontoh Septiawan Ardiputra Setialaksana, Wirawan - Shinta Nuriah Siti Tanri Cici Sri Utami Permata Supardi Supardi

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