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Journal : Jurnal Matematika

Analisis Survival Model Regresi Parametrik Lama Studi Mahasiswa Novita Eka Chandra; Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah
Jurnal Matematika Vol 9 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2019.v09.i01.p106

Abstract

Timely graduation of students can be used as an indicator to show the quality of a university. Students are said to graduate on time if they have a short study period of 4 years. The duration of the study of students varies because it is influenced by several factors. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that have a significant effect on the duration of student studies. The factors studied included gender, GPA, school origin, joining the organization and working in college. The method used in this study is survival analysis. Survival analysis in this study used Log-normal and Weibull, parametric regression models. From the two models, it was found that the GPA and organizational factors significantly influence the duration of student studies. Next, to determine the best model is determined based on the minimum AIC value. Based on the comparison of the two models, the parametric Weibull model has a minimum AIC value, so this model is the best model. Based on HR values ??obtained by students who have a higher GPA and are more active in graduating faster or can be said to have fewer studies. Keywords: survival, regression, parametric, time of study.
Perbandingan Metode Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Inflasi Kota Purwokerto Novita Eka Chandra; Siti Alfiatur Rohmaniah
Jurnal Matematika Vol 12 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2022.v12.i01.p148

Abstract

The rate of inflation that goes up and down can lead to economic instability. To overcome this, it is necessary to forecast the value of inflation in the coming year, so that the government can make decisions in regulating economic policy. The data used in this research is the inflation data for the city of Purwokerto for 6 years. Based on the data plot, it can be seen that the data can be predicted using the Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing methods. The purpose of this study is to compare the two forecasting methods and determine the best method based on the error size value. From the analysis, it is found that the Single Exponential Smoothing method is better used in forecasting than the Moving Average method, because the MAPE, MSD and MAD values ??are smaller. The results of inflation forecasting for the city of Purwokerto in 2018 rose by 0.44 percent.
Analisis Regresi Multivariate Berdasarkan Latar Belakang Santri Mohammad Syaiful Pradana; Nur Nensi; Novita Eka Chandra
Jurnal Matematika Vol 12 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2022.v12.i01.p149

Abstract

The students of the Matholiul Anwar Islamic boarding school come from various different regions so that they have quite diverse social and economic backgrounds. Likewise with learning motivation, achievement motivation and student learning achievement are also diverse. This study aims to determine the effect of the social and economic background of students on achievement motivation, learning motivation and learning achievement. The research sample used was 49 students in the F dormitory of the Matholiul Anwar Sukodadi Lamongan Islamic boarding school. This study uses the Multivariate Regression Analysis model. From the results of the partial study, the effect of social status on the dependent variable was concluded that there was an effect of social status on achievement motivation, learning motivation and learning achievement. Meanwhile, for the variable of economic status on the dependent variable, it can be concluded that there is no effect of economic status on achievement motivation, learning motivation, and learning achievement. Simultaneously, it was obtained that the background of the students affected the achievement motivation, learning motivation, and learning achievement in the F dormitory of the Matholiul Anwar Islamic boarding school.
Prediksi Jumlah Pengiriman Paket Menggunakan Metode Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Sholikah, Layla Hidayatus; Chandra, Novita Eka; Rohmaniah, Siti Alfiatur; Rohmah, Awawin Mustana
Jurnal Matematika Vol 14 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2024.v14.i01.p174

Abstract

This research aims to predict the number of postal office package deliveries using the ARIMA method. The data used is delivery data at the Lamongan Post Office from January 2018 to December 2022. The results of this research are the best model for predicting delivery data, namely ARIMA (2,2,0) with an RMSE value of 2333.897 and a MAPE value of 8,83%. Prediction results for the full year in 2023 have increased every month. Keywords: prediction, delivery, ARIMA