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FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 SUFFERERS IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE AUTOMATIC CLUSTERING FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN METHOD Siregar, Anggi Ramadany; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Corona virus is a virus that is currently endemic throughout the world, including in Indonesia, one of which is in North Sumatra Province, because this virus has claimed many victims. North Sumatra Province in positive cases of Covid-19 is ranked 13th out of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The government's anticipation in handling Covid-19 cases is by forecasting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. One of the methods used to forecast Covid-19 sufferers is the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method. The Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is used to resolve the deviation value from a forecasted value, while Automatic Clustering is used to determine the length of the interval by grouping numerical data. Then the error calculation will be carried out using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to determine the level of accuracy of the forecasting model that has been made. The parameter used in this study is the number of Covid-19 sufferers. The results of this study from data on the number of Covid-19 sufferers have a MAPE value of 4.53%. The MAPE value which is less than 10% means that the forecasting of this study has very good criteria. So the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is very good to be applied in forecasting the number of Covid-19 sufferers in North Sumatra Province.

APPLICATION OF LEAN SIX-SIGMA METHOD AND DEMERIT CHART TO MINIMIZE DEFECTIVE PRODUCT Novia, Ayu; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

uality control is a form of inspection using certain techniques or methods in decision-making to get the quality standards that have been determined. One type of quality control is using the method of Lean Six Sigma to identify and eliminate waste in activities that are not worth the added value through a continuous increase to reach the level of Six Sigma, then use the demerit control chart as a monitor of the production process. The purpose of the study was to find out how to minimize defects in the 220ml Aqua cup mineral water packaging with the method of Lean Six Sigma and Demerit control chart. With the analysis that has been done, it is known that in the 220ml Aqua Cup product the DPMO value for defects in the 220ml AQUA Cup production process is 22912.83, which is the level of sigma is 3.43 and the process capabilities value is 0.77087 which mean that it still needs a process control for minimizing the product defects.

IMPLEMENTATION OF SUGENO'S FUZZY LOGIC IN ANALYZING RICE AVAILABILITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AT PERUM BULOG NORTH SUMATRA Pratiwi, Ria Widiya; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

During the Covid-19 Pandemic economic activities in North Sumatra experienced problems because many people had been laid off and lost their jobs which made them worried about reaching the staple of rice. So that the government feels the need to provide rice assistance which is directly channeled through BULOG. With this direct social assistance to the community, it could lead to instability in the rice supply and expenditure stocks until at least February 2021. So it is necessary to analyze the availability of rice at Perum BULOG so that the rice stock supply at Perum BULOG remains stable during the Covid-19 Pandemic. With fuzzy logic, Sugeno will present uncertainty, uncertainty, inaccuracy which will then produce a model of a system that is able to estimate the amount of rice supplies during the Covid-19 pandemic. In January, in the calculation of realization from North Sumatra BULOG, the ending inventory was 42,941 tonnes, while the yield from the Sugeno fuzzy method was 34,833.06 tonnes. This shows that there is a mismatch between the amount of income and expenditure of rice.

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 SUFFERERS IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE AUTOMATIC CLUSTERING FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN METHOD Siregar, Anggi Ramadany; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.48

Corona virus is a virus that is currently endemic throughout the world, including in Indonesia, one of which is in North Sumatra Province, because this virus has claimed many victims. North Sumatra Province in positive cases of Covid-19 is ranked 13th out of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The government's anticipation in handling Covid-19 cases is by forecasting the number of positive Covid-19 cases. One of the methods used to forecast Covid-19 sufferers is the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method. The Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is used to resolve the deviation value from a forecasted value, while Automatic Clustering is used to determine the length of the interval by grouping numerical data. Then the error calculation will be carried out using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to determine the level of accuracy of the forecasting model that has been made. The parameter used in this study is the number of Covid-19 sufferers. The results of this study from data on the number of Covid-19 sufferers have a MAPE value of 4.53%. The MAPE value which is less than 10% means that the forecasting of this study has very good criteria. So the Automatic Clustering Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain method is very good to be applied in forecasting the number of Covid-19 sufferers in North Sumatra Province.

APPLICATION OF LEAN SIX-SIGMA METHOD AND DEMERIT CHART TO MINIMIZE DEFECTIVE PRODUCT Novia, Ayu; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.51

uality control is a form of inspection using certain techniques or methods in decision-making to get the quality standards that have been determined. One type of quality control is using the method of Lean Six Sigma to identify and eliminate waste in activities that are not worth the added value through a continuous increase to reach the level of Six Sigma, then use the demerit control chart as a monitor of the production process. The purpose of the study was to find out how to minimize defects in the 220ml Aqua cup mineral water packaging with the method of Lean Six Sigma and Demerit control chart. With the analysis that has been done, it is known that in the 220ml Aqua Cup product the DPMO value for defects in the 220ml AQUA Cup production process is 22912.83, which is the level of sigma is 3.43 and the process capabilities value is 0.77087 which mean that it still needs a process control for minimizing the product defects.

IMPLEMENTATION OF SUGENO'S FUZZY LOGIC IN ANALYZING RICE AVAILABILITY DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AT PERUM BULOG NORTH SUMATRA Pratiwi, Ria Widiya; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i2.54

During the Covid-19 Pandemic economic activities in North Sumatra experienced problems because many people had been laid off and lost their jobs which made them worried about reaching the staple of rice. So that the government feels the need to provide rice assistance which is directly channeled through BULOG. With this direct social assistance to the community, it could lead to instability in the rice supply and expenditure stocks until at least February 2021. So it is necessary to analyze the availability of rice at Perum BULOG so that the rice stock supply at Perum BULOG remains stable during the Covid-19 Pandemic. With fuzzy logic, Sugeno will present uncertainty, uncertainty, inaccuracy which will then produce a model of a system that is able to estimate the amount of rice supplies during the Covid-19 pandemic. In January, in the calculation of realization from North Sumatra BULOG, the ending inventory was 42,941 tonnes, while the yield from the Sugeno fuzzy method was 34,833.06 tonnes. This shows that there is a mismatch between the amount of income and expenditure of rice.

DETERMINATION OF ELIGIBILITY FOR RECEIVING THE FAMILY HOPE PROGRAM ASSISTANCE USING THE EVALUATION BASED ON DISTANCE FROM AVERAGE SOLUTION (EDAS) METHOD Br Pohan, Dian Cinta Hasmi; Husein, Ismail; Sari, Rina Filia
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v6i1.1424

This study proposes a decision support framework for determining eligibility for Indonesia’s Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) using the Evaluation Based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) method. Seven criteria derived from national social welfare policy were weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), achieving a consistency ratio of 0.038. The model was applied to 98 household alternatives in Air Merah Village. The resulting assessment scores ranged from 0.0119to 0.7866. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations under ±10% ±15% weight perturbations yielded a high Spearman rank correlation (rho = 0.91,95% CI [0.89, 0.93]), indicating strong ranking stability. The EDAS results showed 78% agreement with manual village selection and 80% alignment within the top-20 priority group. The proposed framework reduces subjectivity and improves transparency in beneficiary selection. Limitations include the cross-sectional design and single-location data. The model is scalable and suitable for broader policy implementation.

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