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ANALISIS PENJUALAN DAN PERSAINGAN AIR MINERAL KEMASAN BOTOL SELAMA PANDEMI COVID-19 DI KOTA MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN RANTAI MARKOV ORDE DUA Giawa, Freddy; Lubis, Riri Syafitri; Widyasari, Rina
Math Educa Journal Vol 5, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/mej.v5i1.2513

Abstract

Markov chain is a method used to identify variables in the present, which is based on past variables in order to obtain an estimate of the probability of these variables in the future. The CoVid-19 virus outbreak has also had a negative impact on economic problems, because this pandemic resulted in a decrease in sales of mineral water. in bottles that experienced a decline in sales results during the COVID-19 pandemic. The formulation of the problem of how companies compete during Covid-19 which continues to experience a decline in sales? . Based on the results of this study, there is a large chance of a second order transition, namely AQUA products in September, which is 61%, an increase of 0.39% from October, in October it was 61.39, a decline of 0.02% so that in November it was 61.37% while Le Mineral products in September were 39%, decreased 0.39% from October, October was 38.61%, experienced a fix in November so November was 38.61%.
Penerapan Model SIRV Penyebaranpenyakit Mulut Dan Kuku Pada Hewan Ternakdi Sumatera Utara Nasution, Dafa Al Qifti; Widyasari, Rina; Lubis, Riri Syafitri
Justek : Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol 6, No 4 (2023): Desember
Publisher : Unversitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/justek.v6i4.20314

Abstract

Abstract:  The aim of the research is to apply a mathematical model of the spread of infectious diseases aimed at livestock by analyzing the stability of being free from Foot and Mouth Disease in livestock and knowing the implementation of the simulation results of the model. The method used in this applied research is the Action Research method which is used to test, develop and create new actions. This type of research is quantitative which aims to test hypotheses through data collected in accordance with previous concepts. Model for the spread of FMD, obtained by the SVIEPR model where the model is divided into 6 compartments, namely: susceptible compartment (S), vaccinated compartment (V), infected compartment (I), latent compartment (E), quarantined livestock compartment (Q), and recovered compartment. (R). the results of equilibrium point stability analysis and numerical simulations show that the disease will disappear if and the disease will persist if  . So the step that can be taken to prevent the disease from becoming an epidemic is to reduce contact between susceptible individuals and (????). being infected increases the rate of individuals being vaccinated (????) and the rate of isolation after vaccination (α). Abstrak: Tujuan penelitian menerapkan model matematika penyebaran penyakit menular yang ditujukan pada hewan ternak dengan menganalisis kestabilan bebas Penyakit Mulut dan Kuku pada  hewan ternak dan mengetahui implementasi hasi simulasi model tersebut. Metode yang di gunakan pada penelitian terapan ini yaitu metode Penelitian Tindakan (Action Research) yang digunakan untuk menguji, mengembangkan dan menciptakan tindakan baru. Jenis penelitian ini yaitu kuantitatif yang bertujuan untuk menguji hipotesa melalui data-data yang terkempul sesuai dengan konsep sebelumnya. Model penyebaran PMK, diperoleh model SVIEPR dimana model dibagi atas 6 kompartemen yaitu: kompartemen rentan (S), kompartemen divaksinasi (V), kompartemen terinfeksi (I), kompartemen laten (E) kompartemen melaksanakan Hewan ternak dikarantina (Q), dan kompartemen sembuh (R). hasil analisis kestabilan titik ekuilibrium dan simulasi numerik diperoleh bahwa penyakit akan hilang jika  dan penyakit akan menetap jika . Sehingga langkah yang dapat dilakukan supaya penyakit tidak menjadi wabah adalah dengan mengurangi kontak antar individu rentan dengan (????). terinfeksi meningkatkan laju individu yang divaksinasi (????) dan laju pelaksanaan isolasi sesudah divaksinasi (α).
Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Di Sumatera Utara Dengan Metode Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Backpropagation Purbowati, Septi; Dur, Sajaratud; Widyasari, Rina
Justek : Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol 6, No 4 (2023): Desember
Publisher : Unversitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/justek.v6i4.20091

Abstract

Abstract:  A artificial neural network is an information processing system that is inspired by the biological nervous system, such as the performance of the brain that processes information. In the 2017-2020 period the data on the number of poor people in North Sumatra used were secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. There are prediction results for the number of poor people in North Sumatra, namely 77,927 people in 2022 consisting of 25 districts, where the data is divided into two parts, namely 5 test data and 20 training data. Artificial neural networks with the Backpropagation method are able to determine or predict the number of poor people in North Sumatra.Abstrak: Jaringan syaraf tiruan adalah sebuah pengolahan informasi yang terinspirasi dari system kerja syaraf biologis, seperti kinerja otak yang memproses suatu informasi. Pada periode 2017-2020 data jumlah penduduk miskin di Sumatera Utara yang digunakan adalah data skunder yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara Medan. Terdapat hasil prediksi jumlah penduduk miskin di Sumatera Utara adalah 77. 927 jiwa pada tahun 2022 yang terdiri dari 25 kabupaten, dimana data tersebut terbagi menjadi dua bagian yaitu 5 data uji dan 20 data latih. Jaringan syaraf tiruan dengan metode Backpropagation mampu menentukan atau memprediksi jumlah penduduk miskin di Sumatera Utara.
An Optimization Model for Hospital Emergency Room Based on Patient Growth and Capacity Management Widyasari, Rina; Cipta, Hendra; Nasution, Mutiah
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2023): Articles Research Volume 7 Issue 1, 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i1.11890

Abstract

According to government regulations of the Republic of Indonesia through the Ministry of Health, the hospital is a health service institution that organizes full individual health services that provide inpatient, outpatient and emergency services. The hospital can function as a place of final service by handling patients according to their abilities. Therefore, the facilities, infrastructure, and resources of the emergency room must be adequate so that they are able to cope with patients. In the case of COVID-19, the number of needs and capacities coupled with the need for demand forecasting and capacity management, especially in the emergency room at the Malahayati Hospital Medan is very necessary. So in this study, the mathematical model was built that could provide a solution to the problem of the need for demand forecasting and capacity management in the emergency room. The mathematical model for the exact outcome is determined by the relationship that exists between states and events. In this study, it is assumed that all events have a fixed probability, without considering drug administration and waiting time. For this reason, the method used the Support Vector Machine (SVM) which is expected to provide an estimate of how many people and capacity management needs are needed in the emergency room when the COVID-19 pandemic occurs. The mathematical model that was built was then simulated in the final part of this study using sample data taken from the Malahayati Hospital Medan.
OPTIMASI PENDISTRIBUSIAN BERAS DENGAN PENERAPAN METODE IMPROVED ZERO POINT METHOD PADA PERUM BULOG KANTOR CABANG MEDAN Muhammad Alfi Syahri Harahap; Cipta, Hendra; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3317

Abstract

This study discusses the Implementation of the Improved Zero Point Method in optimizing the distribution of rice at Perum Bulog Medan Branch Office with the goal to be achieved, namely, optimizing or minimizing the cost of distributing rice. In this study, problem solving was solved using the North West Corner Method as the initial solution, and the Improved Zero Point Method as the optimal solution. The results of this study obtained an initial solution, namely, Rp. 11,619,850, then we calculate using the optimal solution we get a reduction in distribution costs of Rp. 8,089,900.
Pemodelan Angka Harapan Hidup Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Regresi Semi parametrik Spline Melati, Melati Puspita Sari Lubis; Widyasari, Rina; Aprilia, Rima
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3350

Abstract

Angka harapan hidup merupakan dugaan hidup rata-rata seseorang atau dengan kata lain umur yang mungkin didapat seseorang yang lahir pada waktu tertentu. Menurut data Badan Pusat Statistik, Sumatera Utara berada pada posisi terendah di pulau Sumatera dengan rata-rata angka harapan hidup dengan angka 67,22 pada laki-laki dan 71,08 pada perempuan. Angka ini juga masih dibawah rata-rata angka harapan hidup nasional. Hal ini menunjukkan program-program kesehatan di Sumatera Utara perlu menjadi prioritas dalam pembangunan manusia di Sumatera Utara. Metode yang digunakan umtuk memodelkan angka harapan hidup Sumatera Utara yaitu Regresi Semiparametrik Spline Truncated. Regresi semi parametrik merupakan perpaduan antara regresi parametrik dan regresi nonparametrik dengan sebagian bentuk pola data yang diketahui dan ada sebagian pola data yang tidak diketahui. Adapun tujuan yang didapatkan untuk mengetahui model terbaik dari hasil pola data hubungan variabel respon dan variabel prediktor. Hasil penelitian ini diperoleh nilai MSE sebesar 7,3893 dan GCV sebesar 1,3169. Dengan persamaan model sebagai berikut: Dengan nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 39,47% yang dapat diartikan kemampuan variabel prediktor dalam menjelaskan variabel responnya sebesar 39,47% dan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor lain.
Penerapan Metode ADL Pengaruh Harga BBM dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Inflasi di Kota Medan Sarah, Henny May; Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3412

Abstract

Inflation is a general and continuous tendency to increase the price of goods. Factors causing inflation include increases in fuel prices and money supply. The general impact of inflation is a decrease in domestic investment, an increase in interest rates, encouraging investment through speculation, failure to develop, economic instability, a balance of payments deficit, and lowering the standard of living and welfare of the community.The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of fuel prices and the amount of money in circulation on inflation in the city of Medan. The model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) Model. If the variables in the ADL model, both the dependent variable and the independent variable have a unit root, usually performed stasionary test. The ADL model as-sumes stationary data even if the dependent and independent variables are nei-ther stationary or cointegrated. The test results indicate that there is no cointe-gration between the variables, and the model produced indicates that the varia-bles affecting the price of fuel and the availability of money have a considerable impact on inflation, with a coefficient of determination of 71,4% and a MAPE value of 15,64%, making it suitable for making predictions.
Penerapan Analisis Lasso dalam Menentukan Penyebab Utama Faktor Kematian Pasien Komorbid yang Terinfeksi Covid-19 Siregar, Agung Lesmana; Sari, Rina Filia; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3456

Abstract

Tingkat kematian akibat COVID-19 saat ini sangatlah mengkhawatirkan. Pada pasien dengan komorbid (penyakit pembawa) tingkat kematian semakin tinggi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui komorbid apa saja yang berisiko kematian akibat COVID-19 berdasarkan ketepatan datang pengobatan di RSU Haji Kota Medan, dengan menggunakan metode LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator). Keunggulan metode ini adalah mendapatkan hasil koefisien nol atau mendekati nol, yang menyebabkan terseleksinya variabel independen dengan diketahui koefisien dari usia, kadar gula darah, tekanan darah, hemoglobin, kreatinin dan saturasi oksigen. Berdasarkan koefisien hemoglobin memiliki nilai tertinggi dan menjadi variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap kematian akibat COVID-19. Hemoglobin dapat mempengaruhi tingkat oksigen di dalam tubuh karena saturasi oksigen adalah presentase hemoglobin yang mengikat oksigen. Jika tekanan hemoglobin turun menyebabkan sesak nafas sampai meyebabkan sesak nafas sampai menyebabkan kematian. Sehingga hemoglobin menjadi variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap kematian akibat COVID -19.
Peramalan Jumlah Kasus Tuberkulosis di Rumah Sakit Umum Haji Medan dengan Metode Support Vector Regression-Particle Swarm Optimization Hsb, Sumawiyah; Husein, Ismail; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Menjembatani Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika menuju Pemanfaatan Berkelanju
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i2.3668

Abstract

Tuberculosis is an infectious disease that is the leading cause of poor health and one of the major causes of death around the world, in 2021 north Sumatra ran sixth as the province with the highest Tuberculosis rate after Provinsi Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, Jawa timur, DKI Jakarta, and Banten. This may result from an unhealthy environment, an increase in nutrition events, the appearance of HIV/AIDS. Hence, this study aims to create a forecast model by the method of regression support (SVR) with an optimist Particle Swarm Optimazion (PSO). The initial stage of the study involves analyzing the data of those with tuberculosis that begins by calculating the correlation between data with the underlying factors. Then do the preprocessing to initial data value, selecting the number of features and normalization of data. After the analysis stage, regression calculations are made to compare the value of browsing and actual value using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method of Support Vector Regression (SVR) with the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) so that a good fortune-giving result is obtained. The results of this study were obtained from an analysis with a value of MAPE = 35.85.
Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) dalam Hasil Usaha Tani Buah Naga Afrina Sinaga, Serly; Cipta, Hendra; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Sains Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v8i1.4332

Abstract

Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi data deret waktu lebih dari satu variabel yang menggunakan variabel eksogen dalam sistem persamaannya. Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah dengan menggunakan dua variabel endogen dan satu variabel eksogen. Penelitian ini menggunakan data primer dan sekunder. Data primer yaitu data bulanan deret waktu hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil dari tahun 2021 sampai dengan tahun 2022 di Desa Pulo Pitu Marihat Kecamatan Ujung Padang Kabupaten Simalungun serta Data sekunder yaitu curah hujan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memprediksikan hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil di Desa Pulo Pitu Marihat Kecamatan Ujung Padang Kabupaten Simalungun dari januari 2023 sampai dengan Desember 2024. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX) yang dapat diterapkan terhadap data hasil usaha tani buah naga besar dan buah naga kecil adalah Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX (1,1)). Nilai MAPE untuk model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous (VARX (1,1)) pada variabel buah naga besar yaitu -22% dan buah naga kecil yaitu -27,6% sehingga ketepatan hasil prediksi model dapat dikatakan baik digunakan.