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All Journal Farmaka Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) Edu Sociata : Jurnal Pendidikan Sosiologi Jurnal Pustaka AI : Pusat Akses Kajian Teknologi Artificial Intelligence Ekalaya: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Indonesia Jurnal Inovasi Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Jurnal Akuntansi, Keuangan, Perpajakan dan Tata Kelola Perusahaan Journal of Development Economics and Digitalization, Tourism Economics (JDEDTE) Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance Systematic Literature Review Journal
Mutiara, Intan
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Geopolitical risks, bitcoin, economic policy uncertainty, and global commodity prices as determinants of sustainable stock market performance: Evidence from Brazil Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro; Handayani, Sintia; Mutiara, Intan; Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha; Chong, Fennee; Johari, Sobar M.
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 27 No. 1: April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

This study investigates the short-run and long-run effects of geopolitical risk (GPR), Bitcoin (BTC) prices, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world oil prices, world gold prices, and the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) on Brazil's Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE B3). Employing monthly data from January 2019 to December 2024 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing framework, the analysis reveals asymmetric and time-horizon-dependent dynamics. In the short run, gold prices exert a statistically significant negative effect on the ISE B3, consistent with asset-substitution behavior under market stress, whereas the DJSI exerts a positive and significant influence, reflecting the transmission of global sustainability sentiment. In the long run, EPU and oil prices impose significant negative effects, while GPR and Bitcoin exert significant positive effects on the index. A robustness specification excluding DJSI confirms that the core results for EPU, oil, GPR, and Bitcoin are stable, while revealing that omitting the global sustainability benchmark modestly amplifies the estimated magnitudes of GPR and Bitcoin suggesting partial overlap in the channels through which global sentiment affects the ISE B3. These findings contribute to the nascent literature on the macrofinancial determinants of emerging-market sustainability indices and provide actionable insights for portfolio managers, ESG-oriented investors, and policymaker’s.
Co-Authors Aan Sofyan Adestira, Monica Alfarizi, Ahmad Riziq Anas Subarnas Ankhofia, Nida Ariyanto, Fazri Bayu Dwi Saputra, Bayu Dwi Belinda, Rahma Chong, Fennee Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro fatimah Fatimah Fauzan . Firmansyah Firmansyah Gaparianti, Rani Handayani, Sintia Hani, Nur Harahap, M.Nathan Bari Ida Waluyati Inul, Inul Johari, Sobar M. Kirana, Garda Sukma Luluk Ria Rakhma Mochammad Imron Awalludin Monica Dwi Tara Muhammad Akmal Nadya Ayu Putri Nafisa, Lidiya Nafisa, Salvina Nana Mardiana Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha Novita Fitrah Ramadhani3 Pramudya Kurnia Prawesthi, Tiva Eka Rahmawati, Seli Nur Ramadhanti, Ella Salsabila, Salsabila Sudrajah Warajati Kisnawaty Syafadan, Ayu Trisnawati Trisnawati Widyatmojo, Galih Wiransyah, Akmal Yolanda, Intania Widi Zubaida, Aneza