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A Hybrid Neural Network-Time Series Regression Model for Intermittent Demand Forecasting Data Amri Muhaimin; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza; Muhammad Nasrudin; Riyantoko, Prismahardi Aji; Nabilah Selayanti; Putri, Shafira Amanda
Journal of Advances in Information and Industrial Technology Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Nov
Publisher : LPPM Telkom University Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52435/jaiit.v7i2.704

Abstract

Forecasting is a vital tool that helps us make informed decisions by predicting future events based on past data. For forecasts to be accurate, it is important that the data is reliable, complete, and consistent. Yet, the intermittent data is a unique data that is challenging to forecast. Intermittent data contains a characteristic that the data has a lot of long zeros in some periods. The zero value will influence the model to generate a forecasting model. This study aims to tackle those problems by applying a hybrid approach. We integrate the regression model and neural network to create a novel approach for forecasting intermittent data. The dataset used for this data is from Kaggle, sales at Walmart supermarket for one category only. The sales data always produce an intermittent demand pattern, because not every day are the items always sold to customers. This irregular pattern makes the data difficult to forecast using a naïve approach, such as the Croston method, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. To evaluate the performance of our model, some metrics were calculated. We use mean squared error, root mean squared error, and root mean squared scaled error. The result shows that our proposed method outperforms the benchmark model, with an RMSSE of 0.98, which is the lowest compared to other benchmark models in the root mean squared scaled error value. This result shows promise as an exciting solution for overcoming the challenges posed by irregular data in future forecasting tasks.
Implementasi Metode Ensemble ROCK dalam Pengelompokan UMKM di Kabupaten Malang Purwadwika, Reza Sadiya; Hindrayani, Kartika Maulida; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza
JURNAL PETISI (Pendidikan Teknologi Informasi) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): JURNAL PETISI (Pendidikan Teknologi Informasi)
Publisher : Universitas Pendidikan Muhammadiyah Sorong

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36232/jurnalpetisi.v7i1.3396

Abstract

UMKM memiliki peran penting dalam perekonomian nasional, namun masih menghadapi berbagai permasalahan seperti rendahnya pemanfaatan teknologi, keterbatasan akses permodalan, dan lemahnya daya saing. Kompleksitas karakteristik data UMKM yang mencakup variabel numerik dan kategorikal menjadi tantangan dalam analisis dan pemetaan yang akurat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengelompokkan UMKM di Kabupaten Malang berdasarkan karakteristik usaha dan pelaku usahanya dengan pendekatan ensemble clustering menggunakan algoritma ROCK. Data terdiri dari 75 entri UMKM yang mencakup variabel numerik (omset, modal, tenaga kerja) dan kategorikal (jenis usaha, penggunaan aplikasi transportasi daring). Clustering dilakukan secara terpisah dengan Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering untuk data numerik dan ROCK untuk data kategorikal. Hasil kedua metode digabungkan menggunakan pendekatan ensemble untuk memperoleh klaster yang lebih stabil dan representatif. Parameter optimal diperoleh pada theta = 0,05 dan k = 4 dengan nilai Clustering Purity (CP*) sebesar 0,8148 dan Davies-Bouldin Index sebesar 0,3817, menunjukkan pemisahan cluster yang baik. Cluster akhir menunjukkan perbedaan signifikan dalam skala usaha, pemanfaatan teknologi digital, dan performa ekonomi. Temuan ini diharapkan menjadi dasar dalam merancang kebijakan pengembangan UMKM yang lebih tepat sasaran dan berbasis data.
Klasifikasi Sentimen Ulasan Pengguna Aplikasi Qpon dengan Support Vector Machine dan Logistic Regression Febyanti, Iin; Devi, Arsinta Safira; Wardah, Salsabila; Wara, Shindy Shella May; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza
JDMIS: Journal of Data Mining and Information Systems Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): February 2026
Publisher : Yayasan Pendidikan Penelitian Pengabdian Algero

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54259/jdmis.v4i1.4663

Abstract

The increasing number of user reviews in mobile applications is an important source of information in understanding user satisfaction and experience with the services used. One of the applications used in this study is the Qpon application. Reviews left by users often contain positive or negative opinions that can influence other users in making decisions. Therefore, sentiment analysis is needed to determine the tendency of opinions in these reviews. This study aims to classify Qpon application user reviews into two sentiment categories, namely positive and negative. Data were collected through the web scraping method and obtained 866 review data. After going through text preprocessing stages such as removing unimportant words, normalization, and tokenization, the data were analyzed using the TF-IDF method as a feature representation, then classified using the Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. The testing process was carried out using the Stratified K-Fold Cross Validation technique and measured based on five evaluation metrics, namely accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC AUC. The results showed that SVM had the highest accuracy and precision values, while Logistic Regression was superior in recall and ROC AUC. These findings indicate that SVM is superior in terms of classification accuracy, while Logistic Regression is more sensitive to positive reviews. This study is expected to be used as a reference for the development of a sentiment analysis system to improve application services based on user review data.
Application of the DeepSurv Model to Predict Survival in Patients with Kidney Failure Undergoing Hemodialysis Amanda, Rizki; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza; Idhom, Muhammad; Pratama, Muhamad Liswansyah
Indonesian Journal of Data and Science Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Journal of Data and Science
Publisher : yocto brain

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56705/ijodas.v7i1.389

Abstract

This study aims to improve survival prediction in patients with kidney failure undergoing hemodialysis, given their high mortality risk. Traditional models such as Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) have limitations in capturing complex and nonlinear relationships in clinical data. Therefore, this study applies DeepSurv, a deep learning–based survival model, and compares its performance with Cox PH and Cox PH Spline. A total of 300 patients were included, with 165 events and 135 censored observations. The data were split into training and testing sets. DeepSurv was implemented using two hidden layers (64 and 32 neurons), a dropout rate of 0.2, and a learning rate of 1e-3. The model was trained for up to 1000 epochs with early stopping at epoch 435. Performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent AUC at 365, 544, and 730 days. Patients were stratified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on predicted scores. Results showed that Cox PH achieved a C-index of 0.913 and average AUC of 0.964, while Cox PH Spline reached 0.917 and 0.971. DeepSurv achieved a C-index of 0.920 and average AUC of 0.969. Performance differences were small, but DeepSurv provided consistent individual risk estimates. In conclusion, DeepSurv is a flexible approach with performance comparable to Cox-based models. Further external validation and clinical evaluation are needed before wider application