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All Journal Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Saintika Unpam : Jurnal Sains dan Matematika Unpam Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya PENGAMATAN: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat untuk Ilmu MIPA dan Terapannya
Lusye Bakarbessy
Department Of Mathematics, Pattimura University
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications

 1 
PERAMALAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Lusye Bakarbessy; Novita Serly Laamena
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2023): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol5iss1page67-78

Abstract

IPM adalah indikator yg digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat pembangunan manusia. Setiap daerah harus bisa memastikan bahwa IPM daerahnya mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya. Oleh karena itu penting untuk melakukan peramalan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data IPM kota Ambon tahun 2010 hingga tahun 2020 yang berpola trend. Data yang menunjukkan suatu trend, dapat menggunakan metode peramalan Double Exponential Smoothing. Pemilihan paramater terbaik didasarkan pada metode trial dan error. Untuk metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Brown parameter terbaik yang diperoleh adalah alpha 0,9 sedangkan untuk metode Double Exponential Smoothing dari Holt diperoleh parameter terbaik aplha 0,9 dan gamma 0,7. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan metode terbaik adalah Holt dengan nilai MSE 0,08 dengan IPM untuk tahun 2021,2022 dan 2023 berturut-turut adalah 81.10 ,81.32 dan 81.54.
ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT RISK IN MALUKU PROVINCE USING MEAN-VARIANCE APPROACH ON LOCAL OWN-SOURCE REVENUE (PAD) Bakarbessy, Lusye; Talakua, Mozard Winston; Ilwaru, Venn Yan Ishak
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 7 No 2 (2025): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol7iss2page187-198

Abstract

This study aims to analyze investment risks in Maluku Province using the Mean-Variance approach on the Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD) data. The method used in this study is a quantitative analysis of time-series data on PAD from 2015 to 2022. The mean-variance model is used to calculate the rate of return and risk of each PAD component and to construct an efficient frontier as a basis for optimal decision-making. The results show that the regional tax PAD component offers a high rate of return with relatively low risk, potentially making it a stable source of revenue for local governments. These findings provide a basis for optimizing PAD allocation to improve fiscal stability and the sustainability of regional development.
Co-Authors Anggriyani, Sheva Ansori, Muhammad Fandi Beay, Lazarus Kalvein Dahoklory, Monce Damamain, Ferina L Doms Upuy Helaha, D. A. Hiariey, Arlene H Ilwaru, Venn Yan Ishak Kambu, Loisa Genesis L, Rosanti Laamena, Novita Serly Latupeirissa, S. J. Latupeirissa, Sanlly J Lewaherilla, Aprilia Lewaherilla, Norisca Lexy Janzen Sinay, Lexy Janzen Loklomin, S. B Maloky, Jessica Kezia Manuputty, Meirel Matdoan, M. Y. Novita Dahoklory Noya, D. N. Palisoa, N. F. Patty, Dyana Patty, Henry Willyam Michel Rumaropen, Teodora Jessical Saija, Maryone Seknun, M. F. Sinay, L. J. Souisa, Gilbert A. Talakua, Mozard Winston Yopi Andry Lesnussa Yudistira Yudistira